Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Just glancing quickly but seems like main storm actually came out a tad quicker on this run? It did, by about 6hrs+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: you had to pay for the derecho years prior. The derecho is our comeuppance for our cholera tier big storm climo and bad luck on top of that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yes. I understand what a co-op observer does. There just isn't enough of them to cover localized lake effect snow to get a general idea of snowfall totals. When 10-15 reports are coming in from cocarahs and NWS employees of greater than 49" of snow in 24 hours. The NWS employee from Elma reported over 54" than that chart is wrong. Cocarahs has training classes as well, I've taken a few. True to the bolded. That's why I said it's all boils down to what data they used to make that map. Perhaps their intention was to only focus on first order sites where co-op observers measure snow using NWS equipment and guidelines. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: It did, by about 6hrs+. Quicker should be north but it's not this time. What's the issue in your view? Sorry I have like no time right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I wish I were even remotely surprised. Good things don't happen for us. They have in the past just in a rut the last several years with city and south performing better combined with lake bail out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: Quicker should be north but it's not this time. What's the issue in your view? Sorry I have like no time right now. Some of the positives we saw, such as with the 12z run, stepped back. PV in Canada was further SW, along with associated area of confluence. Heights also steadily lower ahead of the main ejecting wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The main system is still 4 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Times like this make me wish the WPC still did the model diagnostic discussions lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Still time but this one smells like a euro victory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z GEM appears to have bumped north with both the overrunning and main storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 0z GFS... Looks eerily similar to the early GHD I maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Hasn't fully loaded yet, but looks like almost all GFS ensemble members are north of the OP with the overrunning snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago916 said: Hasn't fully loaded yet, but looks like almost all GFS ensemble members are north of the OP with the overrunning snows? Mean snow swath def bumped south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I will let this speak for itself. There will be definitely no shortage of moisture for this storm to work with. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If this shifts 50 miles south I'll lose this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Jonger said: If this shifts 50 miles south I'll lose this storm. Ya, the south trend I hope stops haha. But overall even another shift south should still have you get 3-6". I know it would be a tough pill to swallow but only a few days ago I was ready for upper 40s and rain so if your telling me I have to settle for a run of the mill snow event and retain most of my snowpack sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The 0Z GEM is coming in with a pretty decent shift to the north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, mississaugasnow said: Ya, the south trend I hope stops haha. But overall even another shift south should still have you get 3-6". I know it would be a tough pill to swallow but only a few days ago I was ready for upper 40s and rain so if your telling me I have to settle for a run of the mill snow event and retain most of my snowpack sign me up I use the snow for snowmobiling and there's no trail system south of me to even drive to if that happens. A bit early to stress over it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, snowman33 said: Looks eerily similar to the early GHD I maps. Am I reading that correctly? 30 inches in Northern Ohio? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 GEM vs 0Z GEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GFS ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z GEFS mean... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 St. Louis and Indy get absolutely shellacked by the CMC, I-70 special. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Times like this I miss the old days when wagons north in the final few days was seemingly common for the dogs lol. I would rather see it slowly slip away like it's doing now 3-4 days out rather than yanked out from us near showtime like so many times in the recent past. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, andyhb said: St. Louis and Indy get absolutely shellacked by the CMC, I-70 special. Yeah no kidding. 24”+ from STL-IND-CLE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z GEM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: St. Louis and Indy get absolutely shellacked by the CMC, I-70 special. Would obliterate the record storm for IND by like 10 inches (they have kind of a low record) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick. Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior. Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events. Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Sounds like wagon north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick. Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior. Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events. Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go. Well I'm close to Akron so I want a south trend! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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