Feb 1 -3 GHD III

[Harry]

 

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

They go out that far on 18z?

 They go to 144. 

[Hoosier]

1 minute ago, Harry said:

 

 They go to 144. 

Kinda surprised today's 18z run is already out, though I've never really paid attention to the timing.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

You just had to be there.  The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014.  You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold.  How old are you?

The other thing about 1978 was the hype leading up to it. If I'm not mistaken, it was similar to 1999 in a way with Blizzard headlines a good week out. Not to mention, there was pretty good consensus amongst the (primitive?) forecast models it would be an intense cyclone well in advance.

Us weather weenies know Detroit got screwed by what was ultimately a last minute NW shift and the storm deepening even more than what was projected. But the average joe doesn't pay attention to those type of details.

EDIT: I'd say the only storm that came closest in terms of hype (in recent history) was actually GHD 1.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think that Dec 2004 storm is a good comparison to what we are seeing on some model runs, at least from the 21st century.  Though the mega totals would probably be farther north than that one IF it were to play out.

The GFS, GGEM, prior Euro runs are unlikely/rare outcomes, but not impossible.  High end totals like that are not without precedent in certain spots in the region.  Whether or not any particular person here has seen that in their backyard before is not super relevant.

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

[Stebo]

Euro is either sniffing one out or is going to be incredibly wrong.

[BuffaloWeather]

6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

That map Is terrible for New York. 77” in montague in 1997 and a more accurate total of 65” in Cheektowaga in 2014 here in Buffalo, there were several reports of 65” in 24 for that event 

[mimillman]

6 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro is either sniffing one out or is going to be incredibly wrong.

Gut (and verification scores) would say go with the Euro. Not that the GFS can’t be the one sniffing one out. 

[Powerball]

5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

That map Is terrible for New York. 77” in montague in 1997 and a more accurate total of 65” in Cheektowaga in 2014 here in Buffalo, there were several reports of 65” I. 24 hours

My guess is that map is based on snowfall measurements from first order weather stations, and not measurements from storm spotters.

So it may not necessarily be wrong, but based on a specific set of data. 

[Harry]

6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

 

Closer to moisture source. 

24hr record here is 21.5 from Jan 26, 1967. #2. is 18 from Jan 26, 1978. 

Only this place could pull off that sort of thing. 

 

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro is either sniffing one out or is going to be incredibly wrong.

 

I was looking at prior storm threads ( trio clipper ) and noticed it has been a southern outlier more often then not vs GFS etc.. 

[RogueWaves]

1 hour ago, Frog Town said:

You just had to be there.  The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014.  You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold.  How old are you?

You have to understand. Toledo was hit extremely hard with the intense winds/blowing/whiteouts (a county plow truck driver died when his rig either got stuck or had a mechanical issue and he made the bad choice to attempt to walk to "safety") and a respectable foot or more of fresh snow. Motown on north into the Thumb was a much calmer zone where the center of SLP tracked overhead. It was an extremely sharp gradient, as Ann Arbor just a county west was full-on bliz with 15" and similar winds to KTOL region. 

[Harry]

4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Gut (and verification scores) would say go with the Euro. Not that the GFS can’t be the one sniffing one out. 

 

They should break it down by region. I suspect those numbers change ( not for the good )  especially for this region. See older storm threads. 

[OHweather]

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Euro is either sniffing one out or is going to be incredibly wrong.

I honestly don't have a great feel at the moment for which way this ultimately trends either way. Pretty interesting that the GFS and GEFS are holding amped (and if anything the GEFS have trended a bit more amped today) and the Euro and EPS are going the other way. The GFS and GEFS have been competitive with the Europeans the last couple of winters. 

Gut feeling with a +NAO and ridge axis off the west coast would be a NW trend. That may still play out here. But, here's what the EPS is doing at 500mb over the last 3 days worth of 12z runs...

Trending towards the PV near Hudson Bay exerting more influence, with a lobe of it extending towards the Upper Great Lakes. On top of that, it's ejecting the shortwave out of the Four Corners a little slower...though, is that just EPS bias? 

Now here are the GEFS trends over the last number of runs:

It has trended towards ejecting the shortwave a little slower, but is trending towards the PV over Canada exerting LESS influence. 

Feel like the trend to eject the trough slower is legitimate, and that would argue for a somewhat flatter solution IF the PV over Canada exerts more influence. We need to watch trends in both aspects, but the PV influence seems to be causing these big differences. 

At this point I have no clue. A worst case scenario would be the PV pressing down but a fairly amplified trough still ejecting, as that's where you get the GFS solution with stronger WAA aloft as the surface stays cold, meaning someone gets a lot of that QPF as ice. 

[WeatherMonger]

12 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Made me cringe when I saw both IL and IN higher than MI. WHAT??

Has to be a Chicago area lake effect event, here in Springfield our single 24 hour record is 17.4" from the Palm Sunday snow in 2013.

[Chicago Storm]

3 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Question i thought the 18z Euro only went out 90hrs?

It does, but the 18z EPS goes out to 144hrs.

[ILSNOW]

1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said:

It does, but the 18z EPS goes out to 144hrs.

so not looking good on 2nd wave ?

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

so not looking good on 2nd wave ?

There were only ~3 EPS members that had the main storm this far north.

[ILSNOW]

GFS is kinda on its own at the moment

[Harry]

GFS tends to be too wet while euro does not so great with Canada and thus the tendency to suppress and thus see clipper euro run image posted in that clipper thread. It does tend to hold energy back to long as well in the sw. East coast swears by euro because yes it tends to handle such stuff better coming out the south. Wonder how it's doing in Boston? 

Just my observations. 

[RCNYILWX]

I honestly don't have a great feel at the moment for which way this ultimately trends either way. Pretty interesting that the GFS and GEFS are holding amped (and if anything the GEFS have trended a bit more amped today) and the Euro and EPS are going the other way. The GFS and GEFS have been competitive with the Europeans the last couple of winters. 
Gut feeling with a +NAO and ridge axis off the west coast would be a NW trend. That may still play out here. But, here's what the EPS is doing at 500mb over the last 3 days worth of 12z runs...

Trending towards the PV near Hudson Bay exerting more influence, with a lobe of it extending towards the Upper Great Lakes. On top of that, it's ejecting the shortwave out of the Four Corners a little slower...though, is that just EPS bias? 
Now here are the GEFS trends over the last number of runs:

It has trended towards ejecting the shortwave a little slower, but is trending towards the PV over Canada exerting LESS influence. 
Feel like the trend to eject the trough slower is legitimate, and that would argue for a somewhat flatter solution IF the PV over Canada exerts more influence. We need to watch trends in both aspects, but the PV influence seems to be causing these big differences. 
At this point I have no clue. A worst case scenario would be the PV pressing down but a fairly amplified trough still ejecting, as that's where you get the GFS solution with stronger WAA aloft as the surface stays cold, meaning someone gets a lot of that QPF as ice. 

While not a top CIPS analog, this setup reminds me of Jan 4-5, 2014. We weren't even in the game really in the Chicago metro just a couple days out, and it ended up being the largest single event of the season at ORD (the botched measurement on 1/1/14 notwithstanding). The fronto snows ended up being well north of most short range guidance and the main wave also north.

Here's a direct link to the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis dataset for 3pm 1/4:

500 mb:
https://weather.us/reanalysis/ecmwf-era5/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20140104-2100z.html

MSLP:
https://weather.us/reanalysis/ecmwf-era5/usa/sea-level-pressure/20140104-2100z.html

From there you can check out those and other parameters at different times that day.

My gut feeling is similar to yours, that the PV won't have too much influence to at least allow the overrunning part to be closer to GFS depiction. I feel like the PV influence is often an element that's overdone by the guidance. The PV in the 2014 event of course went on to produce the brutal shot of cold air into Jan 6-7.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[A-L-E-K]

Best in the game

[Harry]

1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said:

Best in the game

 

I would have to agree and not because we share similar thoughts. He explains stuff like no other. It doesn't matter the subject either. We have a goody at this office ( GRR ) but sadly is not around often enough! See WDM. 

[fluoronium]

30 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

Has to be a Chicago area lake effect event, here in Springfield our single 24 hour record is 17.4" from the Palm Sunday snow in 2013.

It actually wasn't. That 36" in 24 hour snow total was in Astoria, IL in 1900. There must have been some tight banding with that system, since Peoria only received half of that.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

[WeatherMonger]

2014, the year "Polar Vortex" became a media headline mainstay, fast forward 6-8 years and it's "Bomb Cyclone"

[Lightning]

7 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

I would have to agree and not because we share similar thoughts. He explains stuff like no other. It doesn't matter the subject either. We have a goody at this office ( GRR ) but sadly is not around often enough! See WDM. 

I love reading WDM.  He has caused GRR to be the best NWS in MI.

[WeatherMonger]

1 minute ago, fluoronium said:

It actually wasn't. That 36" in 24 hour snow total was in Astoria, IL in 1900. There must have been some tight banding with that system, since Peoria only received half of that.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/scec/records

I stand corrected, thanks for pointing that out. I couldn't imagine what it would take to get 2 feet here, let alone 3. 

 

While I would like to experience it once, I don't believe I would want to twice. 

[OHweather]

20 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

While not a top CIPS analog, this setup reminds me of Jan 4-5, 2014. We weren't even in the game really in the Chicago metro just a couple days out, and it ended up being the largest single event of the season at ORD (the botched measurement on 1/1/14 notwithstanding). The fronto snows ended up being well north of most short range guidance and the main wave also north.

Here's a direct link to the ECMWF ERA-5 reanalysis dataset for 3pm 1/4:

500 mb:
https://weather.us/reanalysis/ecmwf-era5/usa/geopotential-height-500hpa/20140104-2100z.html

MSLP:
https://weather.us/reanalysis/ecmwf-era5/usa/sea-level-pressure/20140104-2100z.html

From there you can check out those and other parameters at different times that day.

My gut feeling is similar to yours, that the PV won't have too much influence to at least allow the overrunning part to be closer to GFS depiction. I feel like the PV influence is often an element that's overdone by the guidance. The PV in the 2014 event of course went on to produce the brutal shot of cold air into Jan 6-7.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

That's an interesting comparison. I do remember the last second NW trend with that one. We were initially slated to get snow here in Cleveland...and the GFS tried holding on until about 18 hours out...we got mainly rain (as you'd expect with an SLP track right over our heads) and ended as a bit of wind whipped snow as the Arctic air poured in. Interesting comp to this one because it was also a fairly low amplitude shortwave with Arctic air behind it. 

If the GEFS/GFS is correct and the PV exerts less influence we could see similar trends with this one given how warm and how much ridging there will be over the eastern US in front of it. I do feel that the PV being located farther east over Canada in this case and higher heights over the Plains will prevent as meridional of a track in this case, but if the PV influence is weaker then the Euro is in all likelihood too far south at the moment. 

[BuffaloWeather]

44 minutes ago, Powerball said:

My guess is that map is based on snowfall measurements from first order weather stations, and not measurements from storm spotters.

So it may not necessarily be wrong, but based on a specific set of data. 

What qualifies as an official spotter if not Cocarahs or coop observer? Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. I measured over the New York State record posted above in nov of 2014 as well under 24 hours. 

[Thundersnow12]

28 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

While not a top CIPS analog, this setup reminds me of Jan 4-5, 2014. We weren't even in the game really in the Chicago metro just a couple days out, and it ended up being the largest single event of the season at ORD (the botched measurement on 1/1/14 notwithstanding). The fronto snows ended up being well north of most short range guidance and the main wave also north.

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk
 

Barb would appreciate the shoutout. A moment of silence please

[Thundersnow12]

End of the NAM is quicker than the GFS and also more consolidated with the trof compared to the 18z Euro

[WeatherMonger]

10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

What qualifies as an official spotter if not Cocarahs or coop observer? Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. I measured over the New York State record posted above in nov of 2014 as well under 24 hours. 

A yellow card here in central IL