Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18z GEFS mean... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and ice I'll pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zinski1990 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 22 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Speaking of that, brutal gradient between LAF and IND on that run. So ready for 2 inches of ice. Still feel good about this storm though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fluoronium Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Bonkers seeing ensemble mean totals like that. The operational 18z GFS is nearly an all time weenie run for my backyard. It would be incredible to have such a garbage season drop a monster storm of even half of what was is modeled there. I know it has happened to Chicago in recent years, but I've missed out on most of the fun in recent Februarys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 7 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 18z GEFS mean... Strange? Site I am using has that axis a bit further south and higher totals? For the mean.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Strange? Site I am using has that axis a bit further south and higher totals? For the mean.... Cross referencing COD, looks the same as WxBell…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Cross referencing COD, looks the same as WxBell… . Thanks. One I am using has me on the northside of the bullseye. Qpf nearing 1.75 here and higher as you head south and se towards OH/IN.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 28 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Would hope that we have the overrunning portion sorted out by tomorrow at some point, and the main storm on Monday hopefully. Yeah the back and forth is stressful over the years. Simple track one way or the other more than two days out makes one crabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 9 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trying to think of analogs with a substantial anafrontal/overrunning pcpn event followed immediately by a decent closed sfc low storm. One that comes to mind is pre-Christmas 2004, though the axis of max snow was much more N-S than whatll likely end up with this storm. Nothing else pops to mind. Will be one for the books if the GFS is right. I think that Dec 2004 storm is a good comparison to what we are seeing on some model runs, at least from the 21st century. Though the mega totals would probably be farther north than that one IF it were to play out. The GFS, GGEM, prior Euro runs are unlikely/rare outcomes, but not impossible. High end totals like that are not without precedent in certain spots in the region. Whether or not any particular person here has seen that in their backyard before is not super relevant. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 23 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said: Trying to think of analogs with a substantial anafrontal/overrunning pcpn event followed immediately by a decent closed sfc low storm. One that comes to mind is pre-Christmas 2004, though the axis of max snow was much more N-S than whatll likely end up with this storm. Nothing else pops to mind. Will be one for the books if the GFS is right. March '08 that crushed you guys I thought about Dec 04 too. That was a rare one that came east at the last minute and had a strong high pushing behind it. But similar idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Gonna be a brutal miss on this one for CR/IC. Decadal storm potential here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, hlcater said: Gonna be a brutal miss on this one for CR/IC. Decadal storm potential here Far from over for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Far from over for you I think it’s been over since yesterday for max band potential (which is what I was implying). It may certainly snow however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 QPF output on some of these models is nutty. Not very often where you talk about such a moisture laden system that lasts awhile, but this could be it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 hours ago, Hoosier said: Snow really blossoms on the 18z NAM between 78-84 hrs. Axis is generally south of other models though. Not surprised. By tomorrow it will have the snow shield on Gulf coast then up to Canadian border. It had today's nor'easter out to sea a few days out. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 19 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Not surprised. By tomorrow it will have the snow shield on Gulf coast then up to Canadian border. It had today's nor'easter out to sea a few days out. Lol I'm almost to the point of setting myself up for disappointment. I can't get excited yet, maybe Monday afternoon/evening but Ma Nature hates me. Did good GHD 1, but I just can't see Chicago not getting the best of it again. I remember when they got a T'storm warning and a 1" hail report with the thundersnow. I'm thinking 6-10" will be a safe call here unless there is a significant NW shift which has happened many a times in NAM range, and we just got into the long range there. Either way I'm sure we'll double our current season totals. Would only take 2.6" here.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 28 minutes ago, andyhb said: QPF output on some of these models is nutty. Not very often where you talk about such a moisture laden system that lasts awhile, but this could be it. The elite big dogs in the Midwest generally last the better part of 36-48 hrs at a given location, which could happen this time too *if* things play out right. Helps to make up for not getting the insane 4"+ per hour bands that happen on occasion in nor'easters. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, andyhb said: QPF output on some of these models is nutty. Not very often where you talk about such a moisture laden system that lasts awhile, but this could be it. I remember one situation in the early 80s as a kid (lived in Utica MI area at the time). It was a stalled/slow moving boundary I recall 3 significant waves over a 3-4 day period. 1st was all snow (very wet 4-6"). 2nd wave was snow to mostly snow/rain ended as drizzle (didn't accumulate more than a very sloppy inch or so). The final wave was the largest which was rain to mostly snow (again a heavier wet snow) which we got about 11". QPF was a good ~3" amount. Unfortunately I can't remember exactly when it was. The part I remember most is wondering how much snow it would have been if all or mostly snow with better ratios. I remember here of much better totals in the area I now live around Fenton/Holly. It was an event to remember the event cause it lasted days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said: I'm almost to the point of setting myself up for disappointment. I can't get excited yet, maybe Monday afternoon/evening but Ma Nature hates me. Did good GHD 1, but I just can't see Chicago not getting the best of it again. I remember when they got a T'storm warning and a 1" hail report with the thundersnow. I'm thinking 6-10" will be a safe call here unless there is a significant NW shift which has happened many a times in NAM range, and we just got into the long range there. Either way I'm sure we'll double our current season totals. Would only take 2.6" here.... I think you're sitting pretty for this. Because you get hit hard on the more northern GFS and the more southern Euro. Happy for you. I know you are long overdue. Just hope it isn't a complete miss here. I hope I can at least cash in nice on first round of overrunning precip but would be nice to get the main event wed into thurs as well like gfs has but not holding my breath. Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said: Thanks for the input! I just honestly don't get the lore locally about the blizzard of 78. Clearly it was a storm for the ages but when people here start talking about oh the snow was 6' deep and crap like that it's just ridiculous.. There's rarely even a mention of the 1974 storm which literally dropped twice as much snow at Detroit. And hell we just had a 17" storm in 2015 and someone would still bring up the damn 9" storm of 1978. I was thinking about Josh if we somehow got >24" from this system this coming week. Many people in Detroit would still think 1978 had more there 1978 storm was an epic storm for surrounding areas but for Detroiters it is a legend in their own mind 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, buckeye said: I'll pass I actually don't mind a good ice storm though I think they are best later March or early April instead of mid-winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Lightning said: I was thinking about Josh if we somehow got >24" from this system this coming week. Many people in Detroit would still think 1978 had more there 1978 storm was an epic storm for surrounding areas but for Detroiters it is a legend in their own mind You just had to be there. The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014. You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold. How old are you? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Bought a Polaris ranger 1000 last spring, put a computer chip in it last month with a winch, it’s filled up ready to go. Let’s do this. I’m giddy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Frog Town said: You just had to be there. The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014. You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold. How old are you? When the storm hit I was 7. Josh and I are specifically talking about the snow totals. I totally understand the storm was epic but for Detroit area snow totals were anything but epic. We have had much biggest snow totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, Frog Town said: You just had to be there. The only thing even close to that in these parts was January 2014. You need to understand that snow was not the big/deadly part of that storm, but the extreme wind and cold. How old are you? You should also read my post about me being there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: I think you're sitting pretty for this. Because you get hit hard on the more northern GFS and the more southern Euro. Happy for you. I know you are long overdue. Just hope it isn't a complete miss here. I hope I can at least cash in nice on first round of overrunning precip but would be nice to get the main event wed into thurs as well like gfs has but not holding my breath. Ha WPC's FB map from earlier on 4" snow and .1" ice accumulations has general l9cation good for both, or all 3 counting @Chambana. I was most surprised by the ice map, figured .1" would be easy for a longer stretch along the OV. I just don't want a sleet fest with the backside cold coming in. That would absolutely suck. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The 18z Euro was a Rick southeast with the overrunning event. I’m most keen to see the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro Ens are SE with the 2nd wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Now it's looking more like two separate events here. FGEN bands immediately behind the cold front, then a big break, then the snow shield from the new wave riding up the front. If it models shift it all southeast again I'm totally out of the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, AWMT30 said: Euro Ens are SE with the 2nd wave They go out that far on 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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