michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Can someone post the individual 12z EPS members? Here you go Edit. Ill delete mine...see post below lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Edit: ninja’d Here are all the 12z ensemble individual members. Euro is definitely a southern outlier though has modest support. Feel with such a tight compressed height gradient that if this ejects slower or not enough at once that progressive/SE isn’t unreasonable, but if it amps at all it’ll try cutting until it runs into the PV west or SW of Hudson Bay. With the overrunning ahead of the storm, strong gradient resulting in plenty of jet support, and deep feed of moisture high QPF is a very good bet…and a zone of icing is likely. At a certain point if this trends way more progressive the QPF and ceiling would become less impressive but there’s minimal ensemble support towards something like the 12z UKMET for now. UKMET is trash anymore anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 ^Thanks guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: . Satisfactory run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 As location continues to wobble, these models just continue showing monster totals run after run. That’s the best sign of anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, OHweather said: UKMET is trash anymore anyways. It has been exceptionally bad this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Satisfactory run back to back 30+ for you when was the last time you had that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Sciascia said: As location continues to wobble, these models just continue showing monster totals run after run. That’s the best sign of anything. Agree as others have said we should all be thrilled with the large numbers in precip as that seems for sure now it’s just a matter of where this ends up after all the wobbling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Party time for the Indy crew finally? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, ILSNOW said: back to back 30+ for you when was the last time you had that? I never remember seeing that on the GFS this close in. There are exceptions but the GFS seems like it tends to be more conservative with snow amounts at this range. At least that's how it used to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohiocat5908 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 If that GFS run were to verify (it wont) that would be beyond historic. Hard to imagine the impact that would cause. Large 2"+ QPF of all snow for a large portion of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, MidwestChaser said: Party time for the Indy crew finally? Speaking of that, brutal gradient between LAF and IND on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 and ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 3'' of largely sleet on that run for St. Louis, reminds me of V. day 2007 when I was back in the DC burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 things point to us being on the sidelines for this one. obviously the track will change but the favored storm track looks to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The GFS will not budge nor will it's ENS crazy battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Wait till Monday to avoid drama 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: Wanna drive on I-65? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said: Wait till Monday to avoid drama Would hope that we have the overrunning portion sorted out by tomorrow at some point, and the main storm on Monday hopefully. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I think Chicago's biggest total was the late Jan. 67 storm at 23 inches, Many of you know I am really a svr wx guy but this is now getting interesting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spartman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: and ice Sounds like a lock now, thanks to the GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Wanna drive on I-65? Lol, disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 In all my amateur winter storm tracking days I can’t recall seeing a solution like the GFS is showing. Euro seems more plausible just based on what my unskilled eye has seen before but someone with more knowledge can weigh in. Hoping the GFS is onto something because I’d love to see a 30 burger next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Trying to think of analogs with a substantial anafrontal/overrunning pcpn event followed immediately by a decent closed sfc low storm. One that comes to mind is pre-Christmas 2004, though the axis of max snow was much more N-S than whatll likely end up with this storm. Nothing else pops to mind. Will be one for the books if the GFS is right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Nice ensemble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 You know it’s a good looking storm when I’m looking at my area in Boone County having around a foot of snow on the models & thinking, “Man, that could be better.” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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