Feb 1 -3 GHD III

[michsnowfreak]

12 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

GHD Il? I know I cracked that as did Josh? The hard to crack number here is 24 which hasn't been done since 78. 67 was the other which was as someone else noted basically a qpf bomb and thus why such widespread 18+ amounts from IL to MI which is rare in this part of the world and the only reason I don't totally discount the GFS. Chances are slim of that sort of thing but not zero. 

16.7" in 2015 storm. Probably had 20-22" in the 1974 storm before my time. Depth eclipsed 20" in 1999 and 2014, came close in 2015, and eclipsed 15" numerous other times.

[bdgwx]

Interesting stat for St. Louis...we have not had a 6"+ storm (as measured at KSTL) in the month of February in 29 years! Obviously we're all rooting for this statistical fluke and futility record to finally come to an end next week.

[Chicago Storm]

Fair, my bad - I suppose the main storm.

The main storm potential has many factors involved, all of which obviously can make for a north/south shift.

Some of the players involved are; The PV in Canada, ridging out ahead of the Western US trough, additional waves diving into the West later in the period, the quality of the main wave (elongated/strung out vs not), timing of the main wave ejection and more.

The GFS for example is north due to the quality of ridging ahead of the main ejecting wave, as well as a much more consolidated Western US trough, with a main wave that is actually able to take on a negative tilt as it ejects into the Plains. On the other hand, one reason the Euro is much further south with the main storm is due the much slower timing and a much more elongated/strung out trough.


.

[zinski1990]

Indy nearing 2 inches of ice from gfs lol. Seems like its going to be big snow or worst ice storm ever here 

[Street]

4 minutes ago, zinski1990 said:

Indy nearing 2 inches of ice from gfs lol. Seems like its going to be big snow or worst ice storm ever here 

Lets hope for option #1! 

[AWMT30]

Going to be a crazy forecast going forward, you want to give the lean to the GFS but can not discount the Euro. 

[Spartman]

1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

Not gonna end up close to the gfs, which at the moment is on its own, op runs wise.

The 12z GFS would mean some places like Indy or DAY wouldn't get any more snow until around Valentine's Day weekend. 

The GooFuS is really wanting a repeat of February 1-2, 2011 for late next week.

Wonder how long until the Euro, Canadian, and UK models all cave to the GFS.

[zinski1990]

Just now, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS would mean some places like Indy or DAY wouldn't get any more snow until around Valentine's Day weekend. 

The GooFuS is really wanting a repeat of February 1-2, 2011 for late next week.

Wonder how long until the Euro, Canadian, and UK models all cave to the GFS.

That map looks almost identical to 2011. Even then most I remember seeing was like an inch and a half in Central Indiana. 

[Baum]

dueling weather PM AFD's

Springfield, IL:

"ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES  
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH/COLDER. "

Quad Cities:

OF NOTE, HOWEVER,   
IS THE EC ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS OF   
SNOW RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH,

[CANNOTDIVIDEBY0]

**** the NAM, all my homies hate the NAM

[Chicago Storm]

Stay tuned because the initial overrunning comes into view at the tail end of the NAM in less than 2 hours from now. 

-D.


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[Chicago Storm]

dueling weather PM AFD's
Springfield, IL:
"ECMWF AND ITS ENSEMBLES  
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY SOUTH/COLDER. "
Quad Cities:
OF NOTE, HOWEVER,   
IS THE EC ENSEMBLE AVERAGE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW THE MAIN AXIS OF   
SNOW RETREATING BACK TO THE NORTH,

The latter one is the correct one in this case.


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[A-L-E-K]

Always favored slower so hard not 2 ride the euro typical bias aside 

Duration and enhancement should still deliver, liking 10 final call

[Hoosier]

Snow really blossoms on the 18z NAM between 78-84 hrs.  Axis is generally south of other models though.

[Chicago Storm]

liking 10 final call

well, that’s a wrap for here.


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[Hoosier]

Can someone post the individual 12z EPS members?

[Lightning]

1 hour ago, Harry said:

 

GHD Il? I know I cracked that as did Josh? The hard to crack number here is 24 which hasn't been done since 78. 67 was the other which was as someone else noted basically a qpf bomb and thus why such widespread 18+ amounts from IL to MI which is rare in this part of the world and the only reason I don't totally discount the GFS. Chances are slim of that sort of thing but not zero. 

I would agree as it does seem ~24" is hard to very hard to break in this area (except where LES gets involved).  I seen only a couple in the 18-24" range but never higher.  I do find that being higher in the hills helps.  My house elevation is bit over 1000' and driving just a couple/few miles away an the temperature typically increase by 2-3 degrees and snow amounts tend to be slightly less (Fenton proper typically gets less snow then MBY) with most systems. 

[nwohweather]

48 minutes ago, Spartman said:

The 12z GFS would mean some places like Indy or DAY wouldn't get any more snow until around Valentine's Day weekend. 

The GooFuS is really wanting a repeat of February 1-2, 2011 for late next week.

Wonder how long until the Euro, Canadian, and UK models all cave to the GFS.

Imagine expecting the Euro to cave towards the GFS. I will say typically in general these lows book it for Chicago/Detroit but only time will tell. Sort of a weird storm in just how drawn out it is, 36 hours of legit snow at this time

[Chicago WX]

18 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can someone post the individual 12z EPS members?

You have to do some "extra work", and not all the parameters are available for free...but you can see the individuals here. Total precip and snow depth are available. Choose the "switch members" to see the op, control, and all 51 ensembles: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/illinois/m41_acc-total-precipitation/20220204-1800z.html

#41 is my favorite...

 

[Ottawa Blizzard]

1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Mixed bag on the CMC ensembles.  Some amplified, some strung out and weak.  Eagerly awaiting what the EURO ensembles say.

Good to see you again. What are your thoughts for this one? At least 4-6" for Toronto?

[snowstormcanuck]

22 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Good to see you again. What are your thoughts for this one? At least 4-6" for Toronto?

0-24"

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, Jonger said:

Have never cracked 16 inches in 42 years here. Total depth has, but not from one storm.

I remember you being in the jackzone in Nov of 2015 and saying you got 17" and were busting out the sleds. Did I make that all up outta nowhere? 

[ILSNOW]

Ricky

Here`s a breakdown of 3 general clusters of outcomes, in which the
12z global operational models fit decently into:

1) Weaker and farther north Hudson Bay PV will allow for slightly
more pronounced eastern height rises, which enables strong
moisture surge Tuesday evening and night to reach farther north
into the CWA for potentially significant snow accums into Wed eve.
The short-wave out over the eastern Pacific is slower to eject
and positively tilted and subsequent stronger synoptic system
later Wednesday night into Thursday takes off too far south and
east for meaningful additional snow (aside from any lake effect
chances).

Similar 12z model run: ECMWF

2) Weaker and farther north Hudson Bay PV, more pronounced
downstream ridging allows for moderate to heavy overrunning snow.
THEN southwest short-wave takes on neutral to negative tilt and
ejects out to favorably develop a stronger system with ~1005 mb
surface low tracking near or north of Ohio River. This progression
would bring another round of moderate to heavy snow along with
even stronger winds into or through Thursday, aided by impressive
right entrance region jet dynamics. In most amplified ensemble
members, could even be some wintry mix p-type issues in parts of
the area.

Similar 12z model run: GFS

3) Stronger and farther south Hudson Bay PV lobe results in
confluence and slightly suppressed positive height anomalies, and
the strong/drying influence of incoming Arctic high to have more
influence. Result would be banded overrunning precip having a very
sharp northern cut off and focus the heaviest precip and snow axis
into our southern CWA and points south and east (or even south of
CWA altogether in most northern stream dominant ensemble members).

Similar 12z model run: Canadian.

Suffice to say that all three of these outcomes remain plausible
and represented by the distribution of ensemble members of the
three parent models. Overall, there is *currently* a slight lean
in the ensemble means toward roughly outcome 1, favoring our
southeast half or third, occurring amidst brisk northerly winds.
For this reason, the most recent WPC Day 5 accumulating snow/sleet
outlook appears reasonable with southeast half having higher
(50-70% probabilities) vs. northwest (30-50% probabilities). Since
the three approximate clusters described above remain plausible
outcomes, we continue to urge caution with any individual model
run snowfall outputs being shared. Stay tuned for updates as the
potential event draws closer when we can be more confident on some
of these still uncertain details.

[snowstormcanuck]

Primary storm (post-overrunning) on the 18z ICON at 120.   **Fwiw**

[Chicago Storm]

1 minute ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Primary storm (post-overrunning) on the 18z ICON at 120.   **Fwiw**

you moved to cedar rapids?

[Jonger]

9 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I remember you being in the jackzone in Nov of 2015 and saying you got 17" and were busting out the sleds. Did I make that all up outta nowhere? 

16.8 inches I do consider that my best storm ever.

https://www.weather.gov/dtx/151121winterstorm

I guess maybe I have cracked 16.

[snowstormcanuck]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

you moved to cedar rapids?

Lol I assume there's an inside joke here that's whooshed me related to the reliability of the ICON.

Honestly, I have no understanding of this models usefulness.  Crap?

[Harry]

Anyone checked on the ao, nao, epo, PNA? Where are they and headed? Can provide a clue sometimes. 

[Hoosier]

Not gonna go all Alek with a final call but I'm pretty confident in 6"+ locally... about as confident as can be at this point (like 80-90%).  Synoptic part would really have to have a large failure to not reach that as I'm also factoring in some lake contribution.  

[Chicago Storm]

Fairly large changes on the 18z GFS.