Feb 1 -3 GHD III

[Sciascia]

Here’s a gif of the GEFS 10:1 Ensembles from 6pm Tuesday to Friday at midnight. If #10 came anywhere close to verifying, nothing’s happening in Chicago for a few days afterward.

[Jonger]

33 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Again, the thing you like to see is the consistency on multiple suites of guidance of a band of around 2 feet or more, even if the placement of it shifts/doesn't agree.  It's remarkable to see something like that being modeled in this region of the country and not just on 1 crazy run of 1 model.  

Nails me with at least 16 inches. 2 feet just on my doorstep.

End result, I get 8 inches. Let's be real about this.

[Powerball]

It is interesting that the GEFS are generally NW of the OP run, especially with the other models SE of it (some considerably).

[RCNYILWX]

FWIW, the 12z Canadian Ensemble (GEPS) is well north of the operational model with multiple big hits across Chicago metro.

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[mimillman]

1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

FWIW, the 12z Canadian Ensemble (GEPS) is well north of the operational model with multiple big hits across Chicago metro.

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Was just about to post this

[Hoosier]

23 minutes ago, Chicago WX said:

I liked your comparison to the Dec 2004 event. Longer duration event that threw down some big totals in the OV. Seems this one might have that potential. But, long ways to go…

Thinking of playing Prince on Monday.  The days of the month line up beautifully... 12/31/1998 ... 1/31/2022?

[RogueWaves]

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 Yeah like with every storm there's a lot of factors of play. I think the colder air and high pressure to the north is definitely hindering this from cutting much like ghd1 did. I still think there can be some wobbles nw,  i feel like if we're gonna miss this one it's gonna be to our Southeast. Climo  didn't favor us missing last week's Cleveland and Toronto blizzard to the Southeast so I think we can throw that logic out the window.

I didn't realize we had a near-miss of such magnitude. I remember there being some talk of SEMI getting a storm and that it ended up staying south of the Mitt, but I didn't know it was that potent. Well then, has anyone considered we may be experiencing a similar end of January beginning of February stretch of powerhouse storms like 1978 produced, except we go last this time vs middle back then? 

[michsnowfreak]

3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

I didn't realize we had a near-miss of such magnitude. I remember there being some talk of SEMI getting a storm and that it ended up staying south of the Mitt, but I didn't know it was that potent. Well then, has anyone considered we may be experiencing a similar end of January beginning of February stretch of powerhouse storms like 1978 produced, except we go last this time vs middle back then? 

 If you're referring to the Cleveland and Toronto storm, Detroit was never really in the game with that 1. There was like maybe one run that wobbled West enough. But as with any storm, waobbles are normal. Have to like where we sit with this 1. There's a tremendous clash of air masses with the cold to the North and the warmth to the South.

[mimillman]

4 hours ago, Stevo6899 said:

 Yeah like with every storm there's a lot of factors of play. I think the colder air and high pressure to the north is definitely hindering this from cutting much like ghd1 did. I still think there can be some wobbles nw,  i feel like if we're gonna miss this one it's gonna be to our Southeast. Climo  didn't favor us missing last week's Cleveland and Toronto blizzard to the Southeast so I think we can throw that logic out the window.

I don’t think that’s fair to say at all. Of course it will ultimately come down to how it sets up, but there’s a basic probability argument to be made when it comes to climo. Until we narrow in on broader features, we need to weigh the output basis probability.

[RogueWaves]

2 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks for the input! I just honestly don't get the lore locally about the blizzard of 78. Clearly it was a storm for the ages but when people here start talking about oh the snow was 6' deep and crap like that it's just ridiculous.. There's rarely even a mention of the 1974 storm which literally dropped twice as much snow at Detroit. And hell we just had a 17" storm in 2015 and someone would still bring up the damn 9" storm of 1978.  

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. 

In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in. 

[Kaner88]

Trough out west digging deeper by hour 78, along with some modest strengthening in Great Lakes ridging (compared to 0z Euro)

[Hoosier]

12z Euro is showing signs of being at least somewhat north of 00z.

[Kaner88]

4 minutes ago, Kaner88 said:

Trough out west digging deeper by hour 78, along with some modest strengthening in Great Lakes ridging (compared to 0z Euro)

Should have added this graphic to be more clear (now to Hour 96).

[michsnowfreak]

8 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. 

In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in. 

That makes sense. Like I said, it was definitely a storm for the ages, but I just laugh every time someone from Southeast Michigan claims to remember 6 feet of snow or something lol. If you want to remember the storm for its fury, winds, drifts, and falling temperatures great. But when they say things about how much snow fell, it's never been matched, blah blah it's all a fairytale. In Western MI? Absolutely.  Eastern MI has had countless storms with higher snowfall amounts since then. But again, conditions seemed brutal. 

[Chicago Storm]

12z Euro looking north early. Higher heights in S Ontario/Lakes/OV/MSV, and lead wave is further north when coming through.

Also, Western US trough is more consolidated/organized, deeper and is less strung out/elongated.

It won’t be the 12z GFS, but it’ll be a step that way.

[nwohweather]

3 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Thanks for the input! I just honestly don't get the lore locally about the blizzard of 78. Clearly it was a storm for the ages but when people here start talking about oh the snow was 6' deep and crap like that it's just ridiculous.. There's rarely even a mention of the 1974 storm which literally dropped twice as much snow at Detroit. And hell we just had a 17" storm in 2015 and someone would still bring up the damn 9" storm of 1978.  

I suggest you read up on that storm. Drifts were up to 20’, winds gusted to 60 mph, barometric pressure bottomed out around 956 MB. No one really knows how much snow either because of the wind

[michsnowfreak]

1 minute ago, nwohweather said:

I suggest you read up on that storm. Drifts were up to 20’, winds gusted to 60 mph, barometric pressure bottomed out around 956 MB. No one really knows how much snow either because of the wind

 I've read up on it many times, trust me. I've read up and researched all the great events. And that blizzard is clearly one for the ages, I am not at all denying that. I am referring strictly to Southeast Michigan and the Detroit area. 

[KokomoWX]

5 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

This memory makes me think I'd rather be in Chicago vs Indy for next week.

Prolific. 

Edit" This has turned into a slower, less amped solution that spreads a lot of wealth.  It doesn't suck as bad as I expected.

[Chicago Storm]

Several changes aloft when taking a look at things for the 12z Euro as well...

-Lead wave on Mon/Tue is further north, and ends up tracking further NE overall. Also much more ridging out across S Ontario/Lakes/OV/MSV/Etc, due in part to aforementioned lead wave being north and handling of the PV in Canada. This is one factor in giving the overrunning portion a different angle and further north.

-Main trough in the West is more elongated/strung out and is lagging/slower, thus you end up with a much slower and further south main system.

It actually ends up as a very widespread spread the wealth storm.

[Stevo6899]

15 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z Euro looking north early. Higher heights in S Ontario/Lakes/OV/MSV, and lead wave is further north when coming through.

Also, Western US trough is more consolidated/organized, deeper and is less strung out/elongated.

It won’t be the 12z GFS, but it’ll be a step that way.

Not gonna end up close to the gfs, which at the moment is on its own, op runs wise.

[Hoosier]

Main low heading south on the Euro.  End result is a system with lower totals overall.

[RCNYILWX]

12z Euro looking north early. Higher heights in S Ontario/Lakes/OV/MSV, and lead wave is further north when coming through.

Also, Western US trough is more consolidated/organized, deeper and is less strung out/elongated.

It won’t be the 12z GFS, but it’ll be a step that way.

Yep, key improvements aloft that get the good overrunning back north, with farther north Hudson Bay PV and better upstream ridging. The GFS run was close to a best case scenario, but we'd still take a good overrunning event Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

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[Harry]

27 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

Because the "lore" did not originate from impacts in SEMI. From KFNT south to Detroit was a royal screw zone compared to anywhere else in The Mitt, all of Indiana, and at least half of Ohio. 

In Genesee county where I was, we had pretty much what KFNT reported, about 8" new on top of a 5" base of compacted prior snows. But that 8" was driven into some incredible drifts (was mostly farmland back then). The snow drifts formed along/around hedge rows of bushes and trees that separated to plowed fields outside my neighborhood. I remember seeing a snowmobile just drive right up and over a ten or 12 foot tree that had been filled with pulverized dendrites so the stuff was like igloo making material. Those WNW winds on the backside were wicked. Even created drifts in our city lots of 3-4 feet. The wild winds made that more than a typical 8-10" storm, at least up in the open rural area I lived in. 

 

Total here was 25.5! Highest totals were just south of here near the Indiana border.  

[andyhb]

Too sheared out.

[Stebo]

Yeah I think the Euro evolution is bunk. Hangs back the energy too long in the SW (where have we heard this before, oh wait every major storm here)

[Chicago Storm]

2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

we'd still take a good overrunning event Tuesday night into Wednesday night.

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big dog or pass.

[Dalfy]

1 hour ago, Chicago Storm said:

12z GEM


.

Please don't post porn in this thread. 

[Baum]

2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

big dog or pass.

 

[Chicago Storm]

12z Euro

[A-L-E-K]

Looks good