snowman33 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Guys... IT'S GHD III!!!!! #HypeTrain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: Very long duration event Snow evolution of the storm per GFS from Hr84 to Hr138: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 At least the 12z GFS is keeping us from saying congrats Kentucky. Maybe we can settle on a track with only minor variations sometime before 24 hours out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Classic GFS vs Euro. Who will win this round? 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Amazing to see these model runs. If I’m not mistaken in 2009 we received a similar storm that was a 1’ of long drawn out snow. To see the Euro pumping out 15-25” across NW Ohio with isolated amounts of 30” is almost incomprehensible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 If you're learning about this stuff, an easy way to see the important changes at 500 mb is looking at run to run trends of the h5 anomalies. Pivotal weather has a nice model trend loop tool that goes back 3 days worth of runs. Very easy to see the changes just from 06z to 12z run. The PV lobe over Hudson Bay being farther north allows the eastern positive height anomalies (ridging) downstream of trough to our southwest. These big picture changes are in addition to a much more favorable short-wave orientation and ejection described in some of the recent posts. And to top it all off as part of all the favorable changes for a stronger system, textbook right entrance region of an anti-cyclonically curved upper level jet streak that peaks at over 200 knots. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On the flip side, the 12z GEM shifted SE...and it was already well SE of the GFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 17 minutes ago, mimillman said: Very long duration event 12z GFS does, however, show an impressive thumping with 0.75" to 1" of QPF in 6hr from C. Illinois to NE Indiana up to Detroit. Easily 1-2"+ per hour with blizzard conditions for that period. This is the only run to show something like it though. Most likely the ceiling in terms of potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 As expected, lots of amped GFS ensemble members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Gut punch here in Omaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 slight difference between CMC and GFS @ 120hr especially with the placement of the high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 slight difference between CMC and GFS @ 120hr especially with the placement of the high That’s not the reason for the different look at that time. Need to be looking aloft, not at that surface high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z GEFS mean…. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Around 34 for STL on the 12z Canadian. Crazy amounts on these models. EDIT: Scratch that. Like 36". Insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z UKMET still south but coming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 We are still in the early stages. In the coming days we will get to see people simultaneously posting "it looks North" and " it looks South" at the same time when a model run comes out. And then of course the old switcheroo when gfs and euro swap north/south camps. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: On the flip side, the 12z GEM shifted SE...and it was already well SE of the GFS. Several changes aloft when taking a look at things... -Lead wave on Mon/Tue is a bit further south, and ends up tracking further south overall. -PV in Canada is much further south, which helps shunt the overrunning potential south. -Main trough in the West is much more stung out/elongated and it slower, thus you end up with a much slower ejecting main storm system. Also ends up further SE than the GFS has it, do to a lot of what is mentioned in other points. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z GEM. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 We will have to see what the former King has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdgwx Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I'm extremely suspicious of the Kuchera method here. The modeled snow depth is probably going to be more realistic at least for the STL area where ptypes are expected to be variable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 37 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 27.4". Why not? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM . **inserts Kevs fav gif** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Would like to see the euro at least start trending better aloft. I feel like the CMC doesn’t handle Gulf moisture or southern stream systems well, but the Euro certainly does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, bdgwx said: I'm extremely suspicious of the Kuchera method here. The modeled snow depth is probably going to be more realistic at least for the STL area where ptypes are expected to be variable. Even the 10:1 ratio map (likely also too conservative) on the GFS is pretty impressive. It would be Detroit's largest snowstorm ever, with 12" falling in 9 hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z GEM . Looks more like 0Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Odds we see aircraft sampling of the disturbance in the Pacific given potential large impacts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Again, the thing you like to see is the consistency on multiple suites of guidance of a band of around 2 feet or more, even if the placement of it shifts/doesn't agree. It's remarkable to see something like that being modeled in this region of the country and not just on 1 crazy run of 1 model. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago916 said: Odds we see aircraft sampling of the disturbance in the Pacific given potential large impacts? NHC appears to be on it: 140 NOUS42 KNHC 281825 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0125 PM EST FRI 28 JANUARY 2022 SUBJECT: WINTER SEASON PLAN OF THE DAY (WSPOD) VALID 29/1100Z TO 30/1100Z JANUARY 2022 WSPOD NUMBER.....21-059 II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 77 A. 30/0000Z B. AFXXX 07WSE IOP07 C. 29/1830Z D. 25 DROPS APPROXIMATELY 60 NM APART WITHIN AREA BOUNDED BY 30.0N 150.0W, 30.0N 125.0W, 50.0N 125.0W, AND 50.0N 150.0W. E. AS HIGH AS POSSIBLE/ 29/2030Z-30/0230Z Edit to add no flights planned for tomorrow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Again, the thing you like to see is the consistency on multiple suites of guidance of a band of around 2 feet or more, even if the placement of it shifts/doesn't agree. It's remarkable to see something like that being modeled in this region of the country and not just on 1 crazy run of 1 model. I liked your comparison to the Dec 2004 event. Longer duration event that threw down some big totals in the OV. Seems this one might have that potential. But, long ways to go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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