TheWeatherPimp Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 The NAM extrapolated is a classic and prolonged freezing rain event for much of Central Indiana, something I've personally been worried about for days now. This has ice event written all over it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 I really hope GRR has to eat a little crow on this one. NAM says GRR is maybe back in business after watching is drift south for the last few days. Would like to see a few more models arrive at the same solution for my area, but someone somewhere is going to get a nice snowstorm out of this. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Seems a bit over amped, which is a tendency sometimes. Time will tell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 For those of you on the southern edge, I’d hardly fret at the 84 hour NAM 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:47 AM, michsnowfreak said: It's the 84 hour nam too lol Expand True. Frankly, when considering all the model outputs right now, DTW's in a solid position. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:50 AM, Powerball said: True. Frankly, when considering all the model output right now, DTW's in a solid position. Expand Computer models are definitely full of issues, but DTW is in as good a spot as you could hope for on model consensus. Basically square in the middle of the heavy band on the GFS and euro ensembles 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:48 AM, mimillman said: For those of you on the southern edge, I’d hardly fret at the 84 hour NAM Expand I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:52 AM, Hoosier said: I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge. Expand Especially after the rug pulling ghd1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 These types of setups fascinate me. No 3 contour closed low at H5. Just a ton of moisture and good jet dynamics and you get the potential for snow in feet. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:52 AM, Hoosier said: I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge. Expand What I mean is, don’t overreact to a model run it’s long range, notorious for over amped solutions 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Going back to GHD II, it was the NAM that sniffed out the further north solution that ended up verifying. The Euro was south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:52 AM, michsnowfreak said: Computer models are definitely full of issues, but DTW is in as good a spot as you could hope for on model consensus. Basically square in the middle of the heavy band on the GFS and euro ensembles Expand Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 How many think the snow totals will come down as the event gets closer or will it stay with the ridiculously high numbers the models are showing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:54 AM, Powerball said: Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models. Expand I agree that DTW is sitting in a good spot for the front end snows and the main show and has a chance to see some of the higher totals. Im just happy theres something to track. Basically 3 months of no big dogs to track so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:52 AM, Hoosier said: I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge. Expand The NW trend shall never be denied. Pretty soon we'll start hearing those on the southern end talk about an over correction and it will come back south. Never fails and rarely happens Congrats Chicago et al, the force is strong with you effers 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 cyclone going to reel in another big dog. And Hawkeye is starting to get interested. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:54 AM, Powerball said: Not only that, but to provide more buffer, it's sitting squarely in the middle of the southern UKMET/GGEM and the northern Hi-Res models. Expand Ya, Toronto and Hamilton has some room on the southern end. Buffalo-Cleveland along I-90 doesn’t have as much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:55 AM, WestMichigan said: How many think the snow totals will come down as the event gets closer or will it stay with the ridiculously high numbers the models are showing? Expand I think it looks pretty good for multi-day totals in the 1-2 feet range. More a question of where. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:55 AM, WestMichigan said: How many think the snow totals will come down as the event gets closer or will it stay with the ridiculously high numbers the models are showing? Expand I would imagine that is going to happen eventually.. totals are more inline at 10:1 while everyone keeps posting Kuchera ratios. How much will they come down is the question. Willing to bet someone will end up with a foot (maybe a little more) out of this before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:57 AM, WeatherMonger said: The NW trend shall never be denied. Pretty soon we'll start hearing those on the southern end talk about an over correction and it will come back south. Never fails and rarely happens Congrats Chicago et al, the force is strong with you effers Expand Jokes aside, the undeniable Northwest trend circa 2007-08 is long in the past. A good many storms do end up coming Northwest but it is far from the guarantee it was. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:52 AM, Hoosier said: I don't know... I'd be pretty nervous if I were on the southern edge. Expand Indeed. Which I now am squarely on. We know how these always go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 Where is the energy from the main show coming shore? Pac nw? SW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:59 AM, Stevo6899 said: Where is the energy from the main show coming shore? Pac nw? SW? Expand Are you flying home? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:58 AM, mississaugasnow said: Ya, Toronto and Hamilton has some room on the southern end. Buffalo-Cleveland along I-90 doesn’t have as much Expand I still believe being fringed on the north side is more of a risk for us than any mixing issues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:58 AM, Chicago WX said: cyclone going to reel in another big dog. And Hawkeye is starting to get interested. Expand IM SURE GLAD NOTHINGS CHANGED AROUND HERE!!!!! lmao 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:58 AM, Chicago WX said: cyclone going to reel in another big dog. And Hawkeye is starting to get interested. Expand Getting nervous huh? We just gotta hope we run out the clock before too much more of a north shift. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:00 AM, michsnowfreak said: Are you flying home? Expand I was gonna wait until tomorrow night to book my flight. Cant trust these models enough until within 36 hrs lol. Would prob fly home late tues night. Was thinking maybe even wed morning but not risking getting it cancelled since it looks like it may start wed morning. Airlines are weak nowadays, delta used to never cancel flights unless a blizzard. Now all it takes is a couple inches. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:58 AM, Harry Perry said: I would imagine that is going to happen eventually.. totals are more inline at 10:1 while everyone keeps posting Kuchera ratios. How much will they come down is the question. Willing to bet someone will end up with a foot (maybe a little more) out of this before all is said and done. Expand Climo brain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 3:00 AM, Jackstraw said: IM SURE GLAD NOTHINGS CHANGED AROUND HERE!!!!! lmao Expand On 1/31/2022 at 3:02 AM, Hoosier said: Getting nervous huh? We just gotta hope we run out the clock before too much more of a north shift. Expand Eh, I was waiting for the north shifts to happen. Too much time on the clock. Would’ve like to see them hold off until later. Oh well. Back to hibernation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 31, 2022 Share Posted January 31, 2022 On 1/31/2022 at 2:59 AM, Stevo6899 said: Where is the energy from the main show coming shore? Pac nw? SW? Expand There are several pieces to the puzzle. PV well north up in Canada, a disturbance currently cut off well offshore of California, lead waves coming onshore in BC/Pac NW, and then lastly another wave that will dive into the Pac NW from Alaska. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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