snowman33 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ride the Lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z GEM is a bit south with the overrunning event and is well south/weaker with the main storm (Ejecting trough is much more positive tilt/strung out/further south). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 15 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: What a cutoff on the NW side in IL. Lake county 8-12 and 20 miles west in McHenry 2-4 Can you post that map for the Cleveland/Akron area, please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Can you post that map for the Cleveland/Akron area, please? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gino27 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: I'm really worried about the icing potential in Columbus, at least from the gfs perspective. CMC and euro at least keep me mostly snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GFS ensembles remain slightly north of the operational 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Calderon Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 We have a few STL area posters in here.Raises hand, and is a forecaster from Scott AFB. To say this could be “fun” is putting it lightly. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GFS ensembles remain slightly north of the operational Pretty clear GFS is a northern outlier at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 LSX calling for widespread 6 in plus across most of their forecast area and likely starting out as an icy mix of freezing rain/sleet. Potential for double digit amounts if some models are to be believed especially north of I-44. Interesting that this is going to play out on the anniversary of the 1982 surprise "blizzard" that paralyzed St Louis and surrounding areas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Baum said: Pretty clear GFS is a northern outlier at this point. Considering the NAM is north, and the 6Z Euro also came north, are you sure about that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Considering the NAM is north, and the 6Z Euro also came north, are you sure about that? It is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Wow! Impressive totals. Once you get 10+inches, it's chaos! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I can't remember the last time I saw the GEFS that balsy such a large area! Anyone want to tailgate for the 12Z Euro?!? Gonna be an American vs. Foreign battle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, mimillman said: It is Get to enjoy GFS till Euro comes out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 If the GFS is the Northern Outlier, and the Euro is the southern outlier, then I'll take the middle for $500 Alec!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 32 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Get to enjoy GFS till Euro comes out. I haven't trusted the EURO since it showed Irma making a landfall in downtown Miami for a week straight. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: I haven't trusted the EURO since it showed Irma making a landfall in downtown Miami for a week straight. Not saying the Euro will be right, but dontcha think this is a little different scenario? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I just experienced 2 feet of snow in Boston with this blizzard, guess I’m going back to Michigan with the possibility of another 2 feet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looking around at the local offices grahics that were made today (dtw/cle/grr/nind), most look like they are favoring the gefs ensembles/northern solution. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Not saying the Euro will be right, but dontcha think this is a little different scenario? Yes, but like frogtown said...I'd go with a middle of the road path. Coincidentally, that would bury myself here in Akron Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, ILSNOW said: 12z GEFS Interesting that the GEFS have a 6” mean all the way up to Kenosha. In this situation, though, the mean can be a bit deceptive. In other words, mean doesn’t equal “expected”. I’m guessing the vast majority of members show 0-2”, with a small # showing a wrapped up storm with 18”+…all leading to a mean of 6” in the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: Interesting that the GEFS have a 6” mean all the way up to Kenosha. In this situation, though, the mean can be a bit deceptive. In other words, mean doesn’t equal “expected”. I’m guessing the vast majority of members show 0-2”, with a small # showing a wrapped up storm with 18”+…all leading to a mean of 6” in the end. Large % of members have more than 2" as there's a lake signal. But your point is a good one. Always check the individual members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z GEPS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What plays into an operational run that can make it so different than it's ensemble's mean?? Always appreciate the vast amount of knowledge on this board, and the willingness to share and educate. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Frog Town said: What plays into an operational run that can make it so different than it's ensemble's mean?? Always appreciate the vast amount of knowledge on this board, and the willingness to share and educate. It's a case of 1 vs many. A modeler could explain this better but basically the ensemble members have tweaks made to them, which leads to varying solutions. Sometimes the operational run of a model will look like many of its ensembles but sometimes not. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z Euro is going to bump the overrunning event south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z Euro is going to bump the overrunning event south. I think it’s just an orientation change actually. Looks more SW to NE as better banding makes it into the metro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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