Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Differences in the 12z NAM start off at noise level early in the run, but increased quickly by mid-run. Main storm is definitely jumping north on this run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Possibly relevant: GOES-West data is all jacked up at the moment. That would be important for satellite sampling of what would be the main wave for part 2 of the event. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z NAM has a slightly different alignment for the overrunning event, and then definitely will be further north with the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 2:39 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z NAM has a slightly different alignment for the overrunning event, and then definitely will be further north with the main storm. Expand you mean the alignment where if stalls 20 miles from my backyard? Nice looking run for those in the over running area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 nice part 1 for central IL into IN and MI 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GRR completely throwing the storm away that affects 75% of the CWA 72 hours out.. might not end up with an advisory at all, just 6-10” of snow haha. Even the EURO they’re riding to the grave shows appreciable snows across 50% of their CWA so their statement in this mornings AFD just shows how erroneous certain forecasters can be if it doesn’t affect their backyard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z RGEM bumped north with the overrunning event, and then would be a good bit north with the main storm system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:15 PM, Harry Perry said: GRR completely throwing the storm away that affects 75% of the CWA 72 hours out.. might not end up with an advisory at all, just 6-10” of snow haha. Even the EURO they’re riding to the grave shows appreciable snows across 50% of their CWA so their statement in this mornings AFD just shows how erroneous certain forecasters can be if it doesn’t affect their backyard. Expand I think they are riding the trends the past few years of respectable snowstorms sliding to our SE and the lack of nw trends. Either way still reckless to have this point of view of this storm at the current moment. Dtw/grr are the worst. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 11:50 AM, Baum said: turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise. Expand Jokes aside as we get further in this storm is probably worthy of a little upgraded title lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 12:07 PM, RogueWaves said: Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region. Expand Actually we did have double digits, 11" at Detroit. I don't even recall what models were forecasting because that Winter was just one big weather orgasm of fun. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:29 PM, michsnowfreak said: Actually we did have double digits, 11" at Detroit. I don't even recall what models were forecasting because that Winter was just one big weather orgasm of fun. Expand They were going with 12-15" I remember making a map for that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:20 PM, Stevo6899 said: I think they are riding the trends the past few years of respectable snowstorms sliding to our SE and the lack of nw trends. Either way still reckless to have this point of view of this storm at the current moment. Dtw/grr are the worst. Expand Respectable snowstorms, of which there have been a few The last few years, have nothing to do with it. Grand Rapids basically ignores their county warning area outside of Grand Rapids North. They should just give Lansing and Jackson to DTX. I feel sorry for Jackson. If there is a chance of a stray lake effect snow shower drifting over their way, they get slapped with a Winter weather advisory. If they expect 6 to 10" of snow… they get slapped with a Winter weather advisory. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
METALSTORM Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Where should I post for the LSX area? I feel like the mid MS Valley is a no man's land between this region and Central/Western sub. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12z GFS coming in with a slightly different orientation for the overrunning event...It's a bit south for eastern areas and a bit north for western areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:52 PM, METALSTORM said: Where should I post for the LSX area? I feel like the mid MS Valley is a no man's land between this region and Central/Western sub. Expand You're welcome to post here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:52 PM, METALSTORM said: Where should I post for the LSX area? I feel like the mid MS Valley is a no man's land between this region and Central/Western sub. Expand We have a few STL area posters in here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Further into the run is north north in general, Chicago looks to actually get some decent stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:53 PM, Chicago Storm said: 12z GFS coming in with a slightly different orientation for the overrunning event...It's a bit south for eastern areas and a bit north for western areas. Expand Main storm is a bit north of previous run. More ridging ahead of the ejecting trough, however it was slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just curious, with the overrunning portion portion and the main storm, will this all be considered one storm? Looks like near continuous precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Damn, that high pressure tells everyone I’m gonna take the W here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The lake contribution would be excellent with this temp profile; super deep saturation and DGZ: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'd just lock the GFS in now please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:07 PM, purduewx80 said: The lake contribution would be excellent with this temp profile; super deep saturation and DGZ: Expand It could be a consolation prize for us on a miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just a slight wobble back north overall on the snow map compared to 6z on the latest GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What a cutoff on the NW side in IL. Lake county 8-12 and 20 miles west in McHenry 2-4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 At least as far as the GFS is concerned, the SE shift as stopped... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago916 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 4:10 PM, ILSNOW said: What a cutoff on the NW side in IL. Lake county 8-12 and 20 miles west in McHenry 2-4 Expand And another jump of 11" to 20"+ NW to SE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 8:46 PM, A-L-E-K said: Duration and enhancement should still deliver, liking 10 final call Expand Today's 12Z GFS seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dalfy Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 On 1/30/2022 at 3:52 PM, METALSTORM said: Where should I post for the LSX area? I feel like the mid MS Valley is a no man's land between this region and Central/Western sub. Expand It's a small user base but we do post here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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