HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GRR is riding the Euro hard while IWX and DTX say it is way too early to call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 That gfs puts 24+ in my ohio backyard lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: GRR is riding the Euro hard while IWX and DTX say it is way too early to call GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, RogueWaves said: GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning. I don't normally like to crap on the NWS offices, but them writing literally one small paragraph about such a potentially impactful storm because of one run of the Euro that doesn't even have support of the majority of its ensembles just seems a little silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: GRR They will latch onto one single model (any of them) and ride it over a cliff. Even at that, while the Euro shafts GR proper, it still clips their far SE counties pretty good and would require headlines for sure, but to read the AFD nobody is getting snow in their CWA. This happened with last Feb's storm as well. My former residence in Calhoun is one of those ignored by that office. They skipped any Watch, went with the purple paint, then after it was snowing sideways and beyond obvious we were getting storm level hit, they hoisted a warning. If it doesn't happen in Grand Rapids proper or in the boonies further north ( where basically nobody lives ) it didn't happen. 11 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: I don't normally like to crap on the NWS offices, but them writing literally one small paragraph about such a potentially impactful storm because of one run of the Euro that doesn't even have support of the majority of its ensembles just seems a little silly. Only a few there worth reading who actually takes the time to break things down and they are rarely on when it comes to winter events. Historic has found everyway possible to miss this area ( Dec 04, Mar 08. VD 07, GHD 1, etc etc ) so yeah expectations have been low on the crazier amounts the GFS has showed. That blew it's load here in 67 and 78. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The Telecons don't support such a suppressed track as the euro would have it yet ( as I think I have seen before.. trying to recall? ) it is looking like just that is gonna happen despite the rest. Oh well give it another day.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Boston broke its single day recored (23.5") with and I saw a 30.4" measurement in Sharon, MA so those outlandish model totals did verify for them. 70-80 gusts too. Wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, Baum said: turns out the thread title is quite apropos...model consensus wise Huh? This is the BEST models have sgreed 5 days out since maybe GHD-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 When ever you have a cold press like this, you got take the northern solutions with the grain of salt. IF this was December, i'd say congrats Chicago to MSP. Unfortanately, the winners on this one may be in for a sheared pos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, Harry said: The Telecons don't support such a suppressed track as the euro would have it yet ( as I think I have seen before.. trying to recall? ) it is looking like just that is gonna happen despite the rest. Oh well give it another day.. Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Timing. Cold pushes to early and were all screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Huh? This is the BEST models have sgreed 5 days out since maybe GHD-2 eh. the model arguments are always subjective and actually vary to ones backyard. Yes, there is consensus on a storm, but go read LOT's last two discussions(which are excellent) and that'll detail the different model outcomes. Looked like the 6Z NAM ticked the initial overrunning band further into my neck of the woods. FWIW/ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, Frog Town said: When ever you have a cold press like this, you got take the northern solutions with the grain of salt. IF this was December, i'd say congrats Chicago to MSP. Unfortanately, the winners on this one may be in for a sheared pos. We're heading into suppression season, so yes the more SE solutions are legit. Could even argue it is climo to an extent. See 1-31-82, then there's 2003 and 2-14-07 which gave Detroit at least a respectable total despite being an IN & OH special. Plenty of analogs for a N OHV jackzone. We dont have to settle for a strung out POS lame system in Feb. It's this region's prime time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 When ever you have a cold press like this, you got take the northern solutions with the grain of salt. IF this was December, i'd say congrats Chicago to MSP. Unfortanately, the winners on this one may be in for a sheared pos. A lot of guidance that is south of the GFS are still showing significant snowfall totals. I’m not saying it’ll be the case with this one, but there are many cases that would prove the first part of your comment wrong.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Won't argue with a Pro, but I did say "grain of salt", implying a more critical eye like yours to filter out the BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6z NAM is better for the immediate Chicago area. 6z GFS not backing down nor is the 6z EURO. Who blinks first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 FWIW the 06Z Euro is a bit north and more amped, at least for as far as it goes on Pivotal Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 23 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Jan 4-5 2014. Last minute jog/bump N screwed Motown out of dbl digit hit. I dont want too much of a last minute jog, just enough to bump that stripe of 24-30" in NOH up to The Metro here. Like you said, days to go wrt the final wave and what it really does for this region. On the flip side, a last minute bump north with GHD 2 put Detroit in the bullseye. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Powerball said: On the flip side, a last minute bump north with GHD 2 put Detroit in the bullseye. Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Exactly what I am hoping for. Feb of 2015 I was focused on my former back yard and SR maps painting 22" totals there. Didn't realize Detroit wasn't expecting at least a 15" hit. There was a period (albeit brief) where the heaviest amounts shifted into Northern OH / IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 One thing to consider is the NAM and GFS (the Canadian I think to but I was not following it for that storm) were mostly to far east. GFS to the bitter end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 When will the storm come ashore and get sampled? Monday night or sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6z Euro did bump north/northwest with part 1. And a bit wetter in the main snow band. If it went past 90 on the op run, looks like part 2 would be a bit further north too. Not enough for up here, but parts of central/southern IL and IN would cash quite nicely I think... And how cool is it that COD has the Euro now with all these variables. 6z and 18z runs too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, Chicago WX said: 6z Euro did bump north/northwest with part 1. And a bit wetter in the main snow band. If it went past 90 on the op run, looks like part 2 would be a bit further north too. Not enough for up here, but parts of central/southern IL and IN would cash quite nicely I think... And how cool is it that COD has the Euro now with all these variables. 6z and 18z runs too. The COD shit made my day. Definitely my site of choice now tbh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What is the COD site?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Frog Town said: What is the COD site?? https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/legacy/ Has multiple models, animated gif capabilities, and you can even look at comparisons between two models. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Ensemble mean from euro. Much different from op. Something dont seem right. Hard to not lean towards the Ensembles as they have been steadfast vs op runs for some of these model runs such as this recent Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Will be doing the AFD again for the event on the day shift today at LOT. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 While it’s brutal to watch this tickle mby, def prefer to be on the northern side. Even though recent climo says “south south south”, the memory of those NW jogs give me hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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