snowman33 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 58 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Am I reading that correctly? 30 inches in Northern Ohio? Yeah, the models shifted GHD I northwest a day or so before the storm. 20 minutes ago, Hoosier said: No guarantees and each system is different, but if you had to ask me if I'd rather be riding the southern edge or north of where the modeled heaviest axis is right now, I know which one I'd pick. Have seen too many times over the years anything from drifts to rather large leaps north in the few days prior. Anecdotally that seems to happen more than south trends with bigger events. Lots of factors at play though so who knows which way this will go. Yup, I've noticed it too. Has happened with many systems. There tends to be a regression toward what the climate favors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Which model has performed the best this winter? Honestly curious. Feel like CMC hasn't been doing great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Northern stream looks like it's going to be too dominant on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, andyhb said: Northern stream looks like it's going to be too dominant on the Euro. You're not lying, wagons south. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, andyhb said: Northern stream looks like it's going to be too dominant on the Euro. DAB for Chi metro. Big spread the wealth south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Every 6 hours the Euro has something different, I almost getting to the point of not looking at it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro doing its best to join what has been an atrociously performing UKMET. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Euro doing its best to join what has been an atrociously performing UKMET. Almost like joining together to create a United Kingdom of weather models or something… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The only thing making me feel a little better in a potential GFS solution is the fact that the OP and ensembles have been in relatively good agreement for days with minimal north to south shifts. Euro is having drastic shifts run to run as Stebo pointed out. Just would be nice to see some model support for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Wow. 16 inches near Akron, and near 30 inches near Toledo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Here we go Northeast Ohio 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Not really like to punt considering the Euro is bouncing massively run to run lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Not really like to punt considering the Euro is bouncing massively run to run lmao Can you translate that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Floydbuster said: Can you translate that? The gif posted above is of a football kicker punting Punting around here and in weather circles usually means you're giving up on the highest snow being in your area or even getting anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us. Honestly as of right now the GFS does have more support, the NAM is similarly looking at 84 hours and the GEM came north. The Euro is being uncharacteristically weird rn, it usually doesn't flip flop this much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The Canadian is actually kind of the compromise right now, if you want to call it that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 7 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Honestly as of right now the GFS does have more support, the NAM is similarly looking at 84 hours and the GEM came north. The Euro is being uncharacteristically weird rn, it usually doesn't flip flop this much. Canadian isn't as spread the wealth as other models but glad it came north. Hopefully the trend continues. Nam looks like it has potential but I never trust nam at this range. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 10 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Are you throwing in the towel now? Don't give up on me yet. If you give up, I will. I'm trying to give it till Mon. But would like to see some model support in favor of GFS. Odds definitely seem against us. Yeah I'm throwing the towel for here for anything more than a minor event. Still a ways to go but looks like a St. Louis to Toledo type of event. They've paid their dues and sat on the sidelines the past few months so at least our sacrifice will be for the better good lol. Hopefully we get a heart attack cement storm for the ages in March. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 The beginning stages of this starts showing up on the HRRR/RAP runs later this evening (Sunday) lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Euro ensembles aren't buying the shunted south 2nd wave as much. The mean looks like it actually shifted a hair north. Definitely higher amount in the main thrust of the band this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 00z Euro ensemble mean has the heaviest axis roughly CMI-TOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 16 minutes ago, Hoosier said: 00z Euro ensemble mean has the heaviest axis roughly CMI-TOL Map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 minutes ago, tim123 said: Map? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I need a southward shift on that map to my vicinity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Yes I stayed awake for the 6z NAM. It's the weekend haha St. Louis gets about a foot of snow in roughly 15 hours verbatim. As mentioned earlier, this thing looks like it's going to come out swinging with a pretty rapidly developing snow band w/good rates. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Nam at 84 hours. Why. Just why. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 27 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Yes I stayed awake for the 6z NAM. It's the weekend haha St. Louis gets about a foot of snow in roughly 15 hours verbatim. As mentioned earlier, this thing looks like it's going to come out swinging with a pretty rapidly developing snow band w/good rates. Looks a bit like bliz of '82 which really hammered STL, and was very favorable to SCMI on over to SEMI and KTOL as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 06Z GFS is a tad bit north, and is much more spread the wealth, everyone from Indy to the Thumb and Chicago gets well above warning criteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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