Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: What qualifies as an official spotter if not Cocarahs or coop observer? Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. I measured over the New York State record posted above in nov of 2014 as well under 24 hours. COOP observer and NWS OBS sites are more the official route. CoCoRaHs is supplemental. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: COOP observer and NWS OBS sites are more the official route. CoCoRaHs is supplemental. Not enough coop observers in the area. Now that map makes more sense. There were many towns in the Buffalo area that blew past that 49” total in 24 hours in November of 2014. Must have been cocarahs not coop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Not enough coop observers in the area. Now that map makes more sense. There were many towns in the Buffalo area that blew past that 49” total in 24 hours in November of 2014. Must have been cocarahs not coop. It may be up to the state climatologist and / or local NWS offices to submit possible records for verification as well. In NJ last winter someone measured more than the state record by a couple of inches in their backyard in a huge Nor'easter we got. Mt Holly put it in their PNS and the state climatologist did investigate it. The end result was snow blowing off a roof may have inflated the total so it was tossed. Then again the state climatologist also thinks the NJ state record (that is like 100 years) wasn't properly measured either so who knows with some of these things. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 8 minutes ago, OHweather said: It may be up to the state climatologist and / or local NWS offices to submit possible records for verification as well. In NJ last winter someone measured more than the state record by a couple of inches in their backyard in a huge Nor'easter we got. Mt Holly put it in their PNS and the state climatologist did investigate it. The end result was snow blowing off a roof may have inflated the total so it was tossed. Then again the state climatologist also thinks the NJ state record (that is like 100 years) wasn't properly measured either so who knows with some of these things. That makes sense but we had 10-15 coop/cocarahs get over 49" in 24 hours. Here are just a few not including my own. The picture in my avatar is from round 1 of that event in south cheektowaga. Sorry to get too off topic. Back to the storm. …ERIE COUNTY… 4 S Cheektowaga 65.0 Lancaster 63.0 Gardenville 60.0 West Seneca 57.0 2 W West Seneca 51.0 Elma 51.0 Orchard Park 48.0 Wales Center 48.0 1 N Hamburg 48.0 …WYOMING COUNTY… Cowlesville 56.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: That makes sense but we had 10-15 coop/cocarahs get over 49" in 24 hours. Here are just a few not including my own. The picture in my avatar is from round 1 of that event in south cheektowaga. …ERIE COUNTY… 4 S Cheektowaga 65.0 Lancaster 63.0 Gardenville 60.0 West Seneca 57.0 2 W West Seneca 51.0 Elma 51.0 Orchard Park 48.0 Wales Center 48.0 1 N Hamburg 48.0 …WYOMING COUNTY… Cowlesville 56.0 I honestly don't know then. If it was that many, would have to assume it would've been investigated and would say it's relatively shameful if it wasn't. Or perhaps that figure is using data that hasn't been updated recently. With snowfall and tornado climatology and records I've come to realize that we "do the best we can" (in most instances) but that there's too many variables involved for them to be more than rough approximations...sadly. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Well GFS seems to be on a lonely island right now. Even though it's been pretty consistent overall, would like to see support from other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well GFS seems to be on a lonely island right now. Even though it's been pretty consistent overall, would like to see support from other models. The 0z NAM would definitely be GFS-y if ran out a little further. For whatever it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 That initial overrunning delivers in a hurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 14 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Well GFS seems to be on a lonely island right now. Even though it's been pretty consistent overall, would like to see support from other models. I'll take 0Z NAM right here and now for a lock locally. Have a feeling my hopes now will become your reality later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Icon joining the gang just need a lil bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 #TeamICON 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 As a German I'm waiting for its eventual validation 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Looks like 0z GFS will bump south with at least the overrunning portion. Edit: And likely main storm too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I'm not sure exactly what the "NWS Blend of Models" is at Pivotal Weather but here is the 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Weather stations have nothing to do with snowfall measurements. I'm not sure what you mean. NWS has a team of volunteers all across the country who do ground reports of snowfall using NWS-required guidelines and NWS equipment, to ensure accurate measurements. For the purpose of climate recordkeeping, these Co-op volunteers only observe snowfall at sites where an actual human is on site collecting data (versus an ASOS). There are also a few WFOs where local TV station or FAA employees are authorized to be official reporters. But this isn't typical. Then of course, there are actual NWS employees and NWS offices. The problem with Cocorahs and even trained storm spotters (who aren't the same as Co-op observers) is there's a greater likelihood their reports will inaccurate since they haven't undergone the training to measure snow properly and don't have the proper equipment. We don't know if they're slant sticking, measuring drifts, etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Another amped run incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like 0z GFS will bump south with at least the overrunning portion. Edit: And likely main storm too. Confirmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Confirmed. Meh, peace out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What did Vince Carter say after his last dunk in the dunk contest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 6 minutes ago, Powerball said: I'm not sure what you mean. NWS has a team of volunteers all across the country who do ground reports of snowfall using NWS-required guidelines and NWS equipment, to ensure accurate measurements. For the purpose of climate recordkeeping, these Co-op volunteers only observe snowfall at sites where an actual human is on site collecting data (versus an ASOS). There are also a few WFOs where local TV station or FAA employees are authorized to be official reporters. But this isn't typical. Then of course, there are actual NWS employees and NWS offices. The problem with Cocorahs and even trained storm spotters (who aren't the same as Co-op observers) is there's a greater likelihood their reports will inaccurate since they haven't undergone the training to measure snow properly and don't have the proper equipment. We don't know if they're slant sticking, measuring drifts, etc. Yes. I understand what a co-op observer does. There just isn't enough of them to cover localized lake effect snow to get a general idea of snowfall totals. When 10-15 reports are coming in from cocarahs and NWS employees of greater than 49" of snow in 24 hours. The NWS employee from Elma reported over 54" than that chart is wrong. Cocarahs has training classes as well, I've taken a few. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 What did Vince Carter say after his last dunk in the dunk contest?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, Cary67 said: Meh, peace out. I wish I were even remotely surprised. Good things don't happen for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 0z GFS... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Punting this early out for anybody is a bad idea, we still have lotsa model runs to go 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: I wish I were even remotely surprised. Good things don't happen for us. Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 18 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Looks like 0z GFS will bump south with at least the overrunning portion. Edit: And likely main storm too. Just glancing quickly but seems like main storm actually came out a tad quicker on this run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 GFS trending south the last couple of runs. Still monster totals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 1 minute ago, hlcater said: Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you. you had to pay for the derecho years prior. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, hlcater said: Read the stat in the banter thread before you complain any more please and thank you. Joe is the only one allowed to throw these comments around thank you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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