Jonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 26 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: That makes sense. Like I said, it was definitely a storm for the ages, but I just laugh every time someone from Southeast Michigan claims to remember 6 feet of snow or something lol. If you want to remember the storm for its fury, winds, drifts, and falling temperatures great. But when they say things about how much snow fell, it's never been matched, blah blah it's all a fairytale. In Western MI? Absolutely. Eastern MI has had countless storms with higher snowfall amounts since then. But again, conditions seemed brutal. We're too far from the ocean to have that sort of moisture transport north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On the plus side, the 12z Euro is probably about as "bad" as it gets from a big storm perspective. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: big dog or pass. Yeah 2ft or pass, Fidel 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: On the plus side, the 12z Euro is probably about as "bad" as it gets from a big storm perspective. Gives more people a big storm but gets rid of the epic storm for someone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not. Anybody can say that, because your statement is based on climo. But big outliers/extremes do come around once in a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Hoosier said: On the plus side, the 12z Euro is probably about as "bad" as it gets from a big storm perspective. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Powerball said: I'd bet money the EURO's totals will end up closer to correct than not. you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Hoosier said: Anybody can say that, because your statement is based on climo. But big outliers/extremes do come around once in a while. Sure, but that's why they're called outliers/extremes. That said, I'd love nothing more than for the GFS to happen for you all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, Baum said: you mean you think a general 5"-10" event is more likely than a 20"-30" accumulation in the heart of the main band of heavy snow? I'm betting that way as well. EURO shows a widespread 8-12" on the map I see. A 10-15" event (with narrow banding of slightly higher amounts) seems reasonable to expect, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I could be wrong but seems kinda hard to draw up a scenario with lower max totals than the 12z Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6-10 inch storms are a safe bet for the Great Lakes region outside of LES locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 i go 18-20 every few years these days 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said: Gives more people a big storm but gets rid of the epic storm for someone. the gfs huge amounts are what happens when whoever gets the overrunning also gets the max of the storm that forms on the front. That's how we scored 22" in March'08. We got about half from the overrunning and then there was a several hour lull and then the storm came up and dumped the rest on us. So the gfs is totally plausible, the prize is bigger but the winners circle is smaller. Euro is a nice storm for a large part of the sub. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 6 minutes ago, Jonger said: 6-10 inch storms are a safe bet for the Great Lakes region outside of LES locations. We just had a 25" storm here 2 weeks ago of purely synoptic. 2.15" of QPF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Stay tuned because the initial overrunning comes into view at the tail end of the NAM in less than 2 hours from now. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: i go 18-20 every few years these days Have never cracked 16 inches in 42 years here. Total depth has, but not from one storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Consensus is growing for the first wave. The real question then becomes will the second wave be amped like the GFS or suppressed like the Euro. There is lots of potential for a massive storm as many have already said. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: We just had a 25" storm here 2 weeks ago of purely synoptic. 2.15" of QPF There was one here in the late 80s that supposedly topped 2 feet. I was living closer to Det and it wasn't as impressive there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 A question for the experienced folks here: what factors would we be looking for to materially shift the track either north or south with this heavy snow band? Of course there's the Canadian HP which would force a southerly track if it comes in stronger / northerly track if the HP is weaker ... what other flies could we find in the ointment? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Kaner88 said: A question for the experienced folks here: what factors would we be looking for to materially shift the track either north or south with this heavy snow band? Of course there's the Canadian HP which would force a southerly track if it comes in stronger / northerly track if the HP is weaker ... what other flies could we find in the ointment? Depends on what portion of this stretch you're talking about... The overrunning portion or the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro ensemble has a similar look to the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Euro ensemble has a similar look to the op12z EPS mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Mixed bag on the CMC ensembles. Some amplified, some strung out and weak. Eagerly awaiting what the EURO ensembles say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS mean . Thank you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Foe areas around northern IL/IN, there will be some melting of existing snowpack in the hours prior to this storm. Extent of that tbd. The early stages of the storm looks like it could be a wetter type of snow with marginal thermal profiles, which would at least lay down/replenish a base for the windy/fluffier part. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: 12z EPS mean . Some implied big members on there with a mean like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, Jonger said: Have never cracked 16 inches in 42 years here. Total depth has, but not from one storm. GHD Il? I know I cracked that as did Josh? The hard to crack number here is 24 which hasn't been done since 78. 67 was the other which was as someone else noted basically a qpf bomb and thus why such widespread 18+ amounts from IL to MI which is rare in this part of the world and the only reason I don't totally discount the GFS. Chances are slim of that sort of thing but not zero. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner88 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 16 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: Depends on what portion of this stretch you're talking about... The overrunning portion or the main storm. Fair, my bad - I suppose the main storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 32 minutes ago, Jonger said: There was one here in the late 80s that supposedly topped 2 feet. I was living closer to Det and it wasn't as impressive there. The recent Buffalo storm is about as perfect of a synoptic setup as you can get for epic snow amounts. *Closed upper level low *Negative tilt trough *Rapidly deepening gulf low *Strong 850mb Jet (TROWAL) *No blocking to force coastal transfer A system along those lines seem to be like a unicorn these days in the western half of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. With this sysyem, the key will be getting favorable thermals to align with the best forcing, getting the best forcing to train over the same areas for the storm's entirety and for the best forcing to not end up so far above the DGZ that snow ratios take a hit. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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