RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 11 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: GHD I was expected to be a monster for the LAF-OKK crew. Instead a last minute sleet storm happened and Chicago got a historic snowstorm. Here are a few maps and images I have from leading up to that event. You can see the bullseye was everything we dreamed. Long live the DGEX. (I forget who used to run a private high resolution weather model for our area.) This memory makes me think I'd rather be in Chicago vs Indy for next week. IF we were looking at a wound-up strong SLP like back in 2011, then yes Chicago. I think this is suppressed due to weaker SLP not able to push back on CAA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 3 minutes ago, Chambana said: the last 12”+ snowfall was 2/13/07. 19" IMBY - A pure dream. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Thread title is a joke btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Good news is something to track. Good news is at this point someone is going to clocked. Good news overunning events even minus a wound up storm generally put down a fairly large swath of frozen precip. Good news a decent shot of vodka cold post storm. Good news for NE IL crew lake enhancement should be on the table. Good news we are not looking at 20 and cloudy for the next 7 days. Good news someone who has not had a decent event in recent years has the potential too. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 2 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: Thread title is a joke btw i'd be careful with that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: IF we were looking at a wound-up strong SLP like back in 2011, then yes Chicago. I think this is suppressed due to weaker SLP not able to push back on CAA, Yeah like with every storm there's a lot of factors of play. I think the colder air and high pressure to the north is definitely hindering this from cutting much like ghd1 did. I still think there can be some wobbles nw, i feel like if we're gonna miss this one it's gonna be to our Southeast. Climo didn't favor us missing last week's Cleveland and Toronto blizzard to the Southeast so I think we can throw that logic out the window. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I honestly think models are much better than they used to be especially when you get within 5 days (after 5 days well you know). Yes there is variance but not like it used to be. 10 years ago a models 4-5 days out would show INDY getting hammered only to have MSP area get blasted and INDY be in the 50s with rain. Now it seems like once we get within 5 days it we are already discussing storm tracks +/- 200 miles instead of +/- 500 miles or more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 8 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: 19" IMBY - A pure dream. Wow it's definitely been too long. I hope this one works out for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/27/2022 at 8:32 AM, michsnowfreak said: To each their own. For me, It's not about remembering as much as it is enjoying Winter. It's the beavis in me. Were the clippers memorable? Of course not. But it's a Winter wonderland outside. Just like when they have shit Winters on the East Coast with nothing but bare ground, if I lived there, I don't think it would be any consolation to just remember past storms. In terms of remembering, nothing like the winter of 13-14. I can't imagine any single storm could surpass that. I remember the blizzard of 99 well and of course ghdII is my favorite, but immediate thoughts always go to 13-14. Every year this time when they bring up the blizzard of 78, I always have to really wonder. It's become such lore and there's always pomp and circumstances surrounding it, that I wonder what it would have ACTUALLY been like to experience it in Detroit. It's well documented that snowfall totals were far less on the East Side of the state. I'm sure it was a good storm with winds, blowing snow, falling temperatures, etc, but widespread reports of only 8 to 10" in this area certainly lump it in with many other storms. And had that same thing happened today, I have a feeling the storm would be remembered for being a massive close miss. I cannot fathom a weenie Fondly recalling a storm that dumped 9" of snow here and 3' a few counties West. Hi Josh. Long time. I lived in Utica at the time of the Blizzard of '78. This storm was very disappointing as a kid for many as I remember like it was yesterday. The winter storm watch was issued and it was scrolled across the TV during the TV broadcast of Star Wars (it scrolled during Mos Eisley Cantina scene). We were expecting 18"+ in the northern burbs. Got 10" with some rain and UCS system still had classes except one school had power problems like due to the winds. My mom gave me a personal snow day!! Because of the regional impact it was talked about for days on the news. During the 70s (early 80s) most people in the northern burbs have memories of some major 16"+ storms (I sure do). Funny thing is I am willing to bet that most people are mixing up storms (thinking it was the Blizzard of '78 but it was really one of the other major storms that impacted them). If we had these forums and models we have today, I bet the meltdown from the Detroit crew would be huge (the kuchera totals SE MI model output would have been like 24-36" and results would have been 8-10" with rain mixed in). 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 37 minutes ago, Lightning said: Hi Josh. Long time. I lived in Utica at the time of the Blizzard of '78. This storm was very disappointing as a kid for many as I remember like it was yesterday. The winter storm watch was issued and it was scrolled across the TV during the TV broadcast of Star Wars (it scrolled during Mos Eisley Cantina scene). We were expecting 18"+ in the northern burbs. Got 10" with some rain and UCS system still had classes except one school had power problems like due to the winds. My mom gave me a personal snow day!! Because of the regional impact it was talked about for days on the news. During the 70s (early 80s) most people in the northern burbs have memories of some major 16"+ storms (I sure do). Funny thing is I am willing to bet that most people are mixing up storms (thinking it was the Blizzard of '78 but it was really one of the other major storms that impacted them). If we had these forums and models we have today, I bet the meltdown from the Detroit crew would be huge (the kuchera totals SE MI model output would have been like 24-36" and results would have been 8-10" with rain mixed in). Thanks for the input! I just honestly don't get the lore locally about the blizzard of 78. Clearly it was a storm for the ages but when people here start talking about oh the snow was 6' deep and crap like that it's just ridiculous.. There's rarely even a mention of the 1974 storm which literally dropped twice as much snow at Detroit. And hell we just had a 17" storm in 2015 and someone would still bring up the damn 9" storm of 1978. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS looks like it's coming north. The trof out west is more aligned/neutrally tilted by 90hrs with a bit more ridging out east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 GFS looks like it's coming north. The trof out west is more aligned/neutrally tilted by 90hrs with a bit more ridging out east. Ton of changes favoring north there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, Chicago Storm said: Ton of changes favoring north there. . Big run incoming. Better looking ejecting wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 . 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 More impressive run synoptically. Over 80kts of flow at 850mb out of almost due south in the WCB 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 This run would give nasty nasty ice to our Ohio folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 12z GFS is a hoosier special 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z GFS is a hoosier special Keeping with the theme. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEILwxbo Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Lock it in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 27.4". Why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Nearly three feet of snow in that time period with winds and rates like that would probably be a complete blizzard for a while for much of the subforum. One of the funnest runs in a long time. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: 12z GFS is a hoosier special 3 minutes ago, Sciascia said: I would legit be jealous if that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 U know it's good if matt is posting 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The GFS has over 3" of QPF falling as sleet in parts of northern Indiana and Ohio. That would be insane. Of course the usual op run caviots apply. Euro ens at 6z remained quite south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: The GFS has over 3" of QPF falling as sleet in parts of northern Indiana and Ohio. That would be insane. Of course the usual op run caviots apply. Euro ens at 6z remained quite south. I don't think the QPF amounts were 3", but they were still insanely high when they saw all that sleet from GHD I. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just now, ILSNOW said: It's just one run but my concern north is not unfounded. That is an awful consolation prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 minute ago, A-L-E-K said: U know it's good if matt is posting Might have to fly home for a GHD III but Nostradamus Joe is telling me it’s gonna miss south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Very long duration event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Several changes aloft when taking a look at things... -Lead wave on Mon/Tue is further north, and ends up tracking further NE overall. -Much more ridging out across Ontario/Lakes/OV/Etc, due in part to aforementioned lead wave being north and handling of the PV in Canada. This is one factor in giving the overrunning portion a different angle. -Main trough in the West is more consolidated and the main wave is not elongated/lagging, thus you end up with a nicer and more neutral tilt at the base fairly easily. This leads to the ejection/development of a much more organized main storm system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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