luckyweather Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Geos 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 12:32 AM, luckyweather said: Geos Expand He was Gurnee/Waukegan location? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 12:37 AM, Cary67 said: He was Gurnee/Waukegan location?correct. he moved to the pac nw a few years ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Just some brief thoughts. At the risk of jinxing this, I think we're getting close to being able to lock in a significant storm for somebody. Would take a pretty epic model backtrack for that not to happen. The bigger questions are where and how much? I believe what will determine whether this will just be a big storm or a mega/top tier storm that is passed down through the generations has to do with where the main system tracks and how much overlap there will be between that and the initial snows. If there's a nice overlap, then it *could* be something truly epic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 9:55 PM, Chicago Storm said: what we really need is a moneyman return. . Expand I remember him from Accuweather forums I just appreciated the fact he would post the Wx Bell Euro images when they were pay only. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 1:02 AM, Hoosier said: Just some brief thoughts. At the risk of jinxing this, I think we're getting close to being able to lock in a significant storm for somebody. Would take a pretty epic model backtrack for that not to happen. The bigger questions are where and how much? I believe what will determine whether this will just be a big storm or a mega/top tier storm that is passed down through the generations has to do with where the main system tracks and how much overlap there will be between that and the initial snows. If there's a nice overlap, then it *could* be something truly epic. Expand Well said. Even if current forecast amounts were slashed in half it would still be a significant snow/ice for someone within the forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 1:07 AM, Harry Perry said: Well said. Even if current forecast amounts were slashed in half it would still be a significant snow/ice for someone within the forum. Expand I mean, the 18z GFS didn't really have a great overlap and still managed to produce a band of 12-18". Shows the kind of potential that we're dealing with. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman33 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Still a long way to go, things could really fall apart or come together in the next 2 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 I say congrats to I-74 and north in IL. Seems harder and harder to get that I-72 special in both Spring and Winter anymore here. Have already accepted rain showers for both thunderstorm and snow chances. Still trying that reverse psychology that seems to work for some most of the time...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 1:03 AM, WeatherMonger said: I remember him from Accuweather forums I just appreciated the fact he would post the Wx Bell Euro images when they were pay only. Expand I miss accuweather forums. Those were the good ol' days. Lol On 1/29/2022 at 1:49 AM, WeatherMonger said: I say congrats to I-74 and north in IL. Seems harder and harder to get that I-72 special in both Spring and Winter anymore here. Have already accepted rain showers for both thunderstorm and snow chances. Still trying that reverse psychology that seems to work for some most of the time...... Expand I feel for your area this winter. Horrible snow drought for most of Central IL into Central IN. The deformation zone of the low on Thurs could impact your area more than mine. Still days out. A lot can change. I72 gets way more severe wx action than here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherMonger Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 2:01 AM, StormChaser4Life said: I miss accuweather forums. Those were the good ol' days. Lol I feel for your area this winter. Horrible snow drought for most of Central IL into Central IN. The deformation zone of the low on Thurs could impact your area more than mine. Still days out. A lot can change. I72 gets way more severe wx action than here. Expand I'll give you the I-72 area sans Sangamon County Up to 2.6" after uesterdays surprise .5" of snow. So ready for Spring, but then I'm sure it will snow in April. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Not sure if any of you saw the 18z ICON, but it's waay north, with the sleet/zr zone in SE Iowa and NW Illinois. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 2:09 AM, Natester said: Not sure if any of you saw the 18z ICON, but it's waay north, with the sleet/zr zone in SE Iowa and northern Illinois. Expand Garbage model 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lightning Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Hello friends. I haven't been on weather forums in well over 8 years now. Some are probably going to be mad I am back (sorry). I started look up forums again around Christmas break. I think my screen name at the old weather forum was WhiteLake or something like that. I thought it would be fun to be back especially with the potential coming next week. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 0z ICON back south again in line with the other models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 That New England thread is 395 pages long… 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 The 00z GFS run would be a dream come true for me and many other snow lovers. Snow starts at about 2 am Wednesday here and doesn’t stop until Noon on Thursday. Lock it in. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Definitely have more GHD II vibes with this one vs GHD I. IIRC GHD II initially looked like the 0z GFS with the main QPF/snow axis south of Chi metro (vantage point I'm speaking from) but still the fcst totals were fairly large given the long duration of overrunning/WAA up and over the baroclinic zone with the open GOM. That was then gradual north trend over like 48+ hours. I still remember nearly every Euro run would baby step northward along with other guidance. Not saying that is what's going to happen here but looking at some guidance and it has that early GHD II look. Guidance then trended to a more would up/trailing wave look up until the very last minute. This GFS run, the trailing/main wave looks like it shears out as it ejects given whats happening across SE Canada. A slower trough/main wave is probably not a good thing as what's going on over Canada acts to suppress/shear out what eventually ejects and you just end up with a long duration period of good overrunning snows and not a wave that's able to eject and take off. A quicker wave would be able to get out in front more ahead of the big digging ULL moving into SE Canada 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Pretty good 00z GFS run overall (though IND posters will hate it). Actually still room to go bigger though... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:19 AM, Thundersnow12 said: This GFS run, the trailing/main wave looks like it shears out as it ejects given whats happening across SE Canada. A slower trough/main wave is probably not a good thing as what's going on over Canada acts to suppress/shear out what eventually ejects and you just end up with a long duration period of good overrunning snows and not a wave that's able to eject and take off. A quicker wave would be able to get out in front more ahead of the big digging ULL moving into SE CanadaSlower/positive tilt/elongated final wave seems to be the trend the past several runs on most guidance. Still several days away obviously, but by the 0z suite on Sunday you’d like to see that trend reversed.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 Yeah seems like models have really backed off a wound up final low and wave because of that slower ejection/positive tilt/elongated wave. I'm okay with a long duration overrunning event but still waiting for a nice wound up winter storm here. Seems to be difficult to get these days around these parts. What happened to those good GLC's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:19 AM, Thundersnow12 said: Definitely have more GHD II vibes with this one vs GHD I. IIRC GHD II initially looked like the 0z GFS with the main QPF/snow axis south of Chi metro (vantage point I'm speaking from) but still the fcst totals were fairly large given the long duration of overrunning/WAA up and over the baroclinic zone with the open GOM. That was then gradual north trend over like 48+ hours. I still remember nearly every Euro run would baby step northward along with other guidance. Not saying that is what's going to happen here but looking at some guidance and it has that early GHD II look. Guidance then trended to a more would up/trailing wave look up until the very last minute. This GFS run, the trailing/main wave looks like it shears out as it ejects given whats happening across SE Canada. A slower trough/main wave is probably not a good thing as what's going on over Canada acts to suppress/shear out what eventually ejects and you just end up with a long duration period of good overrunning snows and not a wave that's able to eject and take off. A quicker wave would be able to get out in front more ahead of the big digging ULL moving into SE Canada Expand Do you happen to remember what kind of amounts the GFS had for GHD II around this lead time (not necessarily for Chi metro but in the heaviest band?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 0z GEFS mean…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:54 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEFS mean… . Expand Looks better on northern flank than 0Z GFS & CMC run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:54 AM, Chicago Storm said: 0z GEFS mean… . Expand That's pretty impressive for a mean 5 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:58 AM, Cary67 said: 0Z runs not kind to those on northern Looks better on northern flank than 0Z GFS & CMC run Expand 0z cmc was a good jump south. But it's about as trustworthy as long range nam. Going to be seeing a lot of wobbles north and south next few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 5:01 AM, StormChaser4Life said: 0z cmc was a good jump south. But it's about as trustworthy as long range nam. Going to be seeing a lot of wobbles north and south next few days Expand South but it did increase amounts compared to 12z and now also has a band ~2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 5:09 AM, Hoosier said: South but it did increase amounts compared to 12z and now also has a band ~2 feet. Expand I did see that. Joining the team of absurd amounts like euro was showing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/29/2022 at 4:49 AM, Hoosier said: Do you happen to remember what kind of amounts the GFS had for GHD II around this lead time (not necessarily for Chi metro but in the heaviest band?) Expand The old threads are still there it's just a matter of trying to find images still on there showing accumulations at this range. But IIRC and finding a few random images confirms it, amounts for that storm/the top end fcst amounts were not as high as what we are seeing with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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