michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:53 PM, Powerball said: Several weeks ago, @Stevo6899 did predict that Chicago might end with 10" more for for the season than Detroit, when all said & done. This storm, as currently depicted on the models, would definitely be the one to test that prediction. Expand Both Detroit and Chicago sit in as good a position as you can ask for with this storm this far out. 5 says out is an eternity in model-land. It would take a miracle for Chicago to be 10" ahead of Detroit after this storm. But of course the season is not anywhere near all said and done at that point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I can't recall when I've seen this high of totals on an ensemble mean this far out, definitely a great sign that a good storm will be affecting a large area. Now its the waiting game. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 If there is a band of sig ice (not yet certain) then it could be a problem with the wind component. Pressure gradient between that strong high and the low will ensure it's breezy even if sfc low isn't that deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:53 PM, Powerball said: Several weeks ago, @Stevo6899 did predict that Chicago might end with 10" more for for the season than Detroit, when all said & done. This storm, as currently depicted on the models, would definitely be the one to test that prediction. Expand The gfs and Canadian are keeping the the low pretty weak, whereas the euro gets its sub 1000. Either way looks like the biggest potential weve had all winter with an impressive baroc zone setup and dont need a strong low as others have stated. The hp will definitely keep this from going to far nw. I like where chicago to detroit sits. I think once the noreaster moves out in a few days, models will hone in better on it. 12z ukmet is furthest SE, delivering the goods to indy through ohio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Chief met at my employer being really hush hush with this, he even lowered pops on the 7-day this morning. One of our other mets is an open snow weenie so we'll see what he does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:19 PM, A-L-E-K said: gfs came in hot, great look with wide open gulf with moisture pulled over sharp baroclinic zone Expand Yeah...12z GFS shows 59F in Nashville and -42F in Grand Forks at 12z on 2/3. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:29 PM, Powerball said: Who is this stranger that is posting? Expand Figured I would slide on by and see how all was doing. Ofcourse this potential has piqued my interest. On 1/28/2022 at 4:31 PM, A-L-E-K said: powerball and harry, thread has incredible energy right now Expand Nice lake effect event! Hard to beat a snowstorm in the city. The whole city is basically transformed from the landscape to the sounds which seem to vanish when the snow really gets going. And yeah GFS looking solid for alot of us. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 4:44 PM, Chambana said: Watching Alex and crew reel in another one Expand Me at the local park tomorrow when it’s in the mid 50s thinking about what I’m gonna miss back home 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 5:48 PM, CheeselandSkies said: Chief met at my employer being really hush hush with this, he even lowered pops on the 7-day this morning. One of our other mets is an open snow weenie so we'll see what he does. Expand Not sure where you work (didn't know you were a met) but I've noticed they are usually quite conservative in the extended forecast these days, at least DTX NWS. Way too conservative actually. Often not even putting in a chance of snow when they should (not talking this week, talking in general). Then on the other end of the spectrum you have those dumb Facebook weather pages that amass a huge following of the weather ignorant public and they start doing stupid things like posting op model runs a week out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro says “Keep the faith central IL/IN friends!” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Euro gonna be as good as it gets for detroit. Too bad its so far out. Still good to see its a respectable event still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 30”+ for LAF this run. Chi metro still manages 10-20” from NW-SE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Who needs Boston 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Anyone care to post a kuchera map for le Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 nice correction from 0z with the euro and liking where we sit, a northern fringe with prolonged lake enhancement solution isn't a bad fallback 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:43 PM, A-L-E-K said: nice correction from 0z with the euro and liking where we sit, a northern fringe with prolonged lake enhancement solution isn't a bad fallback Expand KC-Kankakee-Flint special when all is said and done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Crikey. That really is a nice run. Agreed that it's nice to have at least one good model mostly to the south of us for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:39 PM, Thundersnow12 said: 30”+ for LAF this run. Chi metro still manages 10-20” from NW-SE Expand Might be safe to say I have never seen a model spit out 30" for LAF in one storm. 2 feet, yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 I'm curious to hear what the met's think how far Northwest this thing could track. Or if a ukmet like track is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:43 PM, A-L-E-K said: nice correction from 0z with the euro and liking where we sit, a northern fringe with prolonged lake enhancement solution isn't a bad fallback Expand Yep, these kinds of storms can turn out very well in the city proper even if heaviest synoptic band is south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:43 PM, A-L-E-K said: nice correction from 0z with the euro and liking where we sit, a northern fringe with prolonged lake enhancement solution isn't a bad fallback Expand Let the stress dreams begin of storm disappearing 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Yesterday's ensembles signaled that south may be the way to go. I'm not putting much faith in the nw outlier GFS. A few days ago models were showing a deep western trough and eastern ridge, with a torch surging north into the lakes. Since then, models have gradually transferred energy from the west to the north... now too much pressing for Iowa. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 It's clown range of course but that is a pretty wide band of 2'+. Few storms in this region have pulled off such a large area of 2 feet. Typically it's an isolated pocket or a very narrow band when it does occur. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 The Euro has trended nicely for IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:42 PM, hlcater said: Expand I have divorce court on the 3rd, be a real shame if a snowstorm cancelled it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:56 PM, Hoosier said: It's clown range of course but that is a pretty wide band of 2'+. Few storms in this region have pulled off such a large area of 2 feet. Typically it's an isolated pocket or a very narrow band when it does occur. Expand I wonder when the last time we saw these kind of totals involved in a setup where there wasn't really a wound up low pressure system. Euro backed off the deeper low, but upped the totals. Just shows what the an open GOM can do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Maybe I've been oblivious until now...but College of DuPage is now offering some Euro data for free including Kuchera snow rates. The 12z is just now running on the site, but it's resource for those that want to see those maps and don't want to pay for them. https://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 On 1/28/2022 at 6:59 PM, KokomoWX said: The Euro has trended nicely for IMBY. Expand I like Chi metro position as others have mentioned. Plus this will wobble back north and south some so let’s see where this eventually ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted January 28, 2022 Share Posted January 28, 2022 Detroit crushed one can dream! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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