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Feb 1 -3 GHD III


Brian D
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I've had this time frame posted in the "Holiday forecast 2022" thread for a potential storm around Groundhogs Day. Gov models keep hinting at it too, so, since things are so quiet, why not start a thread on this potential mess of a situation. 

For me, just some light snow at the start, but the southern area of the sub looks really messy. Post your thoughts, and lets see what happens.

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This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.

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6 minutes ago, hlcater said:

This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table.

would be a shame to fumble the ball like that here, gulf is wide open and the cold air supply is there. def pulling for something more consolidated and wound up, even with the rainer risk

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23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

love 2 track

here is your 7 day track:

Day 1: Ready to be buried/Love to track

Day 2: Models are ugly/ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ

Day 3: Posts Here comes the Rain Again Video

Day 4 Euro comin in hot

Day 5 Madison Special/ Final call  1.5"

Day 6 Posts Vince Mcmahon Meme

Day 7 D-Day: Radar looks grim/Gonna bust high/ Quality flakes/Epic on the lakeshore/ Posts photos of buried cars as lake band pivots through/ Quality storm.

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50 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

The ice component looks ugly for many including myself.  Sigh.

ICE.png

Id rather it rain if this is the outcome. I do think this outcome is likely with this storm for someone though. It has been way too cold for way too long and there is even colder air behind this storm to come.

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It’s always nice when guidance has a quality storm in the sub-forum, with different ways of getting there. However, look at how radically different the UA pattern is on the GFS/Euro leading into things.

Have a long way to go…
989bcf7180184fac4b320475fda46136.jpg

54bf6ef8834a8ba5c4e197c0cf653907.jpg


.

In one model suite, the GFS jumped from its solution to a 12z Euro solution.

On the flip side, for the East Coast weekend storm all guidance pretty much caved to the GFS.

Good luck.


.
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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

Also I have no idea who this could hit right now, all you need to do is look at the nor'easter to see the models have absolutely no idea right now in the mid-long range other than a storm will happen.

Agree.   I feel for the NE crew.   Just plain cruel to have general model consensus showing a historic blizzard 3 and 4 days out only to morph into an advisory level event...if that.   We've all been there as snow lovers and it sucks big time, it would be better never being in the game.   

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3 minutes ago, buckeye said:

Agree.   I feel for the NE crew.   Just plain cruel to have general model consensus showing a historic blizzard 3 and 4 days out only to morph into an advisory level event...if that.   We've all been there as snow lovers and it sucks big time, it would be better never being in the game.   

I don't at all, they have seen storms in the last 10 years that I can only imagine seeing plus they are almost all insufferable.

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3 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I don't at all, they have seen storms in the last 10 years that I can only imagine seeing plus they are almost all insufferable.

I talk to Andrew from Long Island all the time and he would rather have our climate with frequent snows and flakes...they just don't get that. He has seen some incredible storms but they are in and out in a flash. Obviously it's a little different in NE, but still. An east coast climate is big risk, big reward, big disappointment. 

 

These models tho. Yikes.

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1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

I talk to Andrew from Long Island all the time and he would rather have our climate with frequent snows and flakes...they just don't get that. He has seen some incredible storms but they are in and out in a flash. Obviously it's a little different in NE, but still. An east coast climate is big risk, big reward, big disappointment. 

 

These models tho. Yikes.

I like the big risk the big reward though, its just like here. Everyone remembers blizzard of 99 or the 2 ghd storms, no one is going to remember the 2 clippers we had this weekend in a month.

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