Brian D Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I've had this time frame posted in the "Holiday forecast 2022" thread for a potential storm around Groundhogs Day. Gov models keep hinting at it too, so, since things are so quiet, why not start a thread on this potential mess of a situation. For me, just some light snow at the start, but the southern area of the sub looks really messy. Post your thoughts, and lets see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 brian d > gov models 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ballsy. I'm fine with taking the ealry shot at a thread but prefrred "Midwest Bomb Cyclone" or "GHD lll the Return"....fear the term "mess" may prove accurate. 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 beat me to it. was going to jump on it tomorrow, to snipe hoosier.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said: beat me to it. was going to jump on it tomorrow, to snipe hoosier. . I was asleep at the wheel since it's still January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12Z Euro in multiply pieces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Moisture will be there. Western US trough will be there. The rest is all one big ? at this point 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, hlcater said: This system is gonna be a tough one to predict. Euro for example has 3 separate pieces of energy along a steep baroclinic zone with a 1045mb high pressing down from Canada. Add in the fact that how this baroclinic zone behaves depends on a shortwave traversing the US/CA border and a predictability disaster unfolds. Anything from a wound up bomb to suppressed/overrunning trash is realistically on the table. would be a shame to fumble the ball like that here, gulf is wide open and the cold air supply is there. def pulling for something more consolidated and wound up, even with the rainer risk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It’s always nice when guidance has a quality storm in the sub-forum, with different ways of getting there. However, look at how radically different the UA pattern is on the GFS/Euro leading into things.Have a long way to go…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: would be a shame to fumble the ball like that here, gulf is wide open and the cold air supply is there. def pulling for something more consolidated and wound up, even with the rainer risk dw the northern stream is gonna ensure that does not happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, hlcater said: dw the northern stream is gonna ensure that does not happen so ready 2 b buried? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Solid 7+days of tracking 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 love 2 track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The ice component looks ugly for many including myself. Sigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: love 2 track here is your 7 day track: Day 1: Ready to be buried/Love to track Day 2: Models are ugly/ ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ Day 3: Posts Here comes the Rain Again Video Day 4 Euro comin in hot Day 5 Madison Special/ Final call 1.5" Day 6 Posts Vince Mcmahon Meme Day 7 D-Day: Radar looks grim/Gonna bust high/ Quality flakes/Epic on the lakeshore/ Posts photos of buried cars as lake band pivots through/ Quality storm. 9 1 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Should be quite the comedy show watching the struggling models figure this one out over the coming week. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 50 minutes ago, KokomoWX said: The ice component looks ugly for many including myself. Sigh. Id rather it rain if this is the outcome. I do think this outcome is likely with this storm for someone though. It has been way too cold for way too long and there is even colder air behind this storm to come. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Also I have no idea who this could hit right now, all you need to do is look at the nor'easter to see the models have absolutely no idea right now in the mid-long range other than a storm will happen. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Dibs on the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 hours ago, ILSNOW said: 12Z Euro in multiply pieces Please. Thanks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It’s always nice when guidance has a quality storm in the sub-forum, with different ways of getting there. However, look at how radically different the UA pattern is on the GFS/Euro leading into things.Have a long way to go….In one model suite, the GFS jumped from its solution to a 12z Euro solution.On the flip side, for the East Coast weekend storm all guidance pretty much caved to the GFS.Good luck.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 IS IT BULLISH OR IS IT BEARISH too early for me, but glad we have something to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, Stebo said: Also I have no idea who this could hit right now, all you need to do is look at the nor'easter to see the models have absolutely no idea right now in the mid-long range other than a storm will happen. Agree. I feel for the NE crew. Just plain cruel to have general model consensus showing a historic blizzard 3 and 4 days out only to morph into an advisory level event...if that. We've all been there as snow lovers and it sucks big time, it would be better never being in the game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, buckeye said: Agree. I feel for the NE crew. Just plain cruel to have general model consensus showing a historic blizzard 3 and 4 days out only to morph into an advisory level event...if that. We've all been there as snow lovers and it sucks big time, it would be better never being in the game. I don't at all, they have seen storms in the last 10 years that I can only imagine seeing plus they are almost all insufferable. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Stebo said: I don't at all, they have seen storms in the last 10 years that I can only imagine seeing plus they are almost all insufferable. I talk to Andrew from Long Island all the time and he would rather have our climate with frequent snows and flakes...they just don't get that. He has seen some incredible storms but they are in and out in a flash. Obviously it's a little different in NE, but still. An east coast climate is big risk, big reward, big disappointment. These models tho. Yikes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: I talk to Andrew from Long Island all the time and he would rather have our climate with frequent snows and flakes...they just don't get that. He has seen some incredible storms but they are in and out in a flash. Obviously it's a little different in NE, but still. An east coast climate is big risk, big reward, big disappointment. These models tho. Yikes. I like the big risk the big reward though, its just like here. Everyone remembers blizzard of 99 or the 2 ghd storms, no one is going to remember the 2 clippers we had this weekend in a month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I wonder if they were ever concerned that the models had a classic northeast bomb in spite of a positive nao, ao, no 50/50 low and no blocking. Sometimes I think even mets can get sucked into model soulutions that bury their own backyards. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Damn, this one might have legs. We have model consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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