NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Weather Will said: 10 am amazing -- screw Boston, it's all about Norfolk these days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll show my way out. Apologies. Right. See you in an hour. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: This tho. Another 50 miles and we all get smoked 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Wouldn't a 986 low in that position off NC coast throw more precip to the west than what it is showing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 4 pm. Maybe I need to go to OC… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm truly sorry tho. Like I said the other day, I know how it feels to read pbp and get excited only to be let down. Something told me to wait one more panel. I really thought it was going to be good just by the H5 and the low developing much closer to the coast vs 18z. I honestly do feel bad for giving out hope-ium. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Fine I’ll weenie. A low in that position tucked and captured would throw the deform west from where the qpf max is but it’s the nam so it’s probably wrong. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: amazing -- screw Boston, it's all about Norfolk these days. It's not done up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10 am And it's still just Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 10 am Ok maybe not 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: This tho. Another 50 miles and we all get smoked Still have time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, gopper said: Wouldn't a 986 low in that position off NC coast throw more precip to the west than what it is showing? Not necessarily. Our big snows are usually more tucked to the coast than that. Usually we want OC to rain, not get a foot plus 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Right. See you in an hour. Lol. Nah, I feel terrible for dropping false hope. I promise you I won't be back. Plus I've had like a bottle of wine and my old ass is about to hit the bed. Good luck tho, seriously. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Ok model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 to zero to 12 in 3 consecutive runs 48 hours before game time. Love the NAM. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm truly sorry tho. Like I said the other day, I know how it feels to read pbp and get excited only to be let down. Something told me to wait one more panel. I really thought it was going to be good just by the H5 and the low developing much closer to the coast vs 18z. I honestly do feel bad for giving out hope-ium. you see what's happening in here? everyone is excited lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 That’s a pretty darn good run IMO. 2-5” on the table for DC. I’d like to see NAM increase QPF totals in Deep Creek, selfishly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If DC gets into the coastal action it will be the comeback of the century! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 What a fitting way to reach a hundred page thread for this storm. The whole storm summarized in one model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's creating a March 1980 seVA blizzard scenario. Not sure if I buy it, but verbatim this gives most of the Delmarva 2-3 feet of snow, rapid decrease west of the Bay. Small changes in this would mean large changes in snow, but this run is just a stall and deepen special. Imagine it wanders off towards Cape Cod eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: That’s a pretty darn good run IMO. 2-5” on the table for DC. I’d like to see NAM increase QPF totals in Deep Creek, selfishly Presumably Garrett and Tucker will get a lot more from upslope than would show on the models. That usually isn't modeled very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If DC gets into the coastal action it will be the comeback of the century!SE DC is in it to win it. For once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18 to zero to 12 in 3 consecutive runs 48 hours before game time. Love the NAM. Oh, just your run of the mill 18” snowstorm at OBX. Oh, NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 12z to 00z Oc might be fearing rain soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 They say the NAM is only good through 48 hours, so let’s see where it is by 12Z tomorrow….GN! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
* shine * Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 It's creating a March 1980 seVA blizzard scenario. Not sure if I buy it, but verbatim this gives most of the Delmarva 2-3 feet of snow, rapid decrease west of the Bay. Small changes in this would mean large changes in snow, but this run is just a stall and deepen special. Imagine it wanders off towards Cape Cod eventually. The old Sit and Spin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’d like to see NAM increase QPF totals in Deep Creek, selfishly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 What do we even do with the NAM? There's so much disparity between the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 If the Nam and euro our right I’m surely heading to or around OC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Oh, just your run of the mill 18” snowstorm at OBX. Oh, NAM. One hell of a cutoff running along I95 especially near NYC 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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