Bob Chill Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowDreamer said: It’s interesting that anecdotally the GFS has been taking the EURO’s lunch money this month with these scores. Verification is on a global scale and the spread is pretty tight. It's been long speculated that different globals are better than each other at different things. Depends on near infinite variables so broad brush verification scores don't really tell us much. Especially when talking about a 50 mile difference in storm track or whatever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Confidence level = shot Wow I can only hope that's true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Confidence level = shot "Worst case"...heh depends on your definition, lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 So what we thinking about the NAM at 0z? Still on crack? Went from 18" to zero in my yard in one cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 17 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: There it is, SREF talk. It's pre-Boxing Day all over again. Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: So what we thinking about the 0z NAM? Still on crack? Went from 18" to zero in my yard in one cycle. Just for shits cuz what else do we have to do I'm running side by side of 0z vs 12z from earlier. Lets see what we get 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. It was the 18z run on Christmas Eve. Best run for NW of Baltimore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Lol. All week we be in here like... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Just for shits cuz what else do we have to do I'm running side by side of 0z vs 12z from earlier. Lets see what we get This late in the game I have no interest in subatomic level analysis at h5. I'll just have another glass of wine and check the snow maps in a bit. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol. All week we be in here like... Get everyone in this sub pulling that storm west. We'll WILL this one home! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: This late in the game I have no interest in subatomic level analysis at h5. I'll just have another glass of wine and check the snow maps in a bit. Agreed on that part, early prediction is better than 18z if that helps PS wouldn't have to even look at anytihng, 18z was just that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam appears to be better thus far thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: Nam appears to be better thus far thru 24 Since 18z was SO bad, it really only is worth comparing to 12z, or just not comparing it to anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Since 18z was SO bad, it really only is worth comparing to 12z, or just not comparing it to anything I am it's pretty similar to 12z maybe a touch better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 00z 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 At least one model will give me 2" tonight 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Idk if you remember but it was the night of dec 23rd or xmas eve IIRC that the 18z runs started coming way west and then NCEP said there were initialization errors. Then when 0z miraculously kept coming west it was on. I remember it all. Including the hundreds of dollars in ticketing charges to get on a flight in time to beat the storm home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: I am it's pretty similar to 12z maybe a touch better Please do tell what you’re seeing that’s an improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 9 minutes ago, Jebman said: Get everyone in this sub pulling that storm west. We'll WILL this one home! Jeb I would put you right at the front! (Or is the back--whichever is the strongest point, lol) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: Please do tell what you’re seeing that’s an improvement Tell me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 2 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Please do tell what you’re seeing that’s an improvement SW is definitely further east better ridge in the west more NS dig 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: SW is definitely further east better ridge in the west NS troff digging a bit further west too. That should help. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: At least one model will give me 2" tonight Reminds me of a funny line on easternwx back in the day at 2am, "we're looking at the wrong "models"" 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 I'm rooting for the @CAPE crew to get brought back in the game big time. Maybe the 18z euro was a sign of something to sneakily occur tonight as we discuss booze in the banter thread. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Nam is so dmn slow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Lol. All week we be in here like... It’s unfortunate that the guy who tweeted that to Pann, stole it from someone much funnier and wittier than that guy will ever be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: Nam is so damn slow Right? 39hrs lol. Gfs would be out 120+ by now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 1 minute ago, TSSN+ said: Right? 39hrs lol. Gfs would be out 120+ by now. Slow and steady wins the race? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 27, 2022 Share Posted January 27, 2022 This run will be probably near 12z other then NS is digging more definitely will be improved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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