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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The biggest thing to just take from this is the continued idea to hold the energy back in the SW longer. But until we have a much better sampling/idea of this energy all ranges of possibilities remain and we'll continue to see wild swings and inconsistencies until it's just handled better. 

Just thought I'd quote this from the New England forum to get the juices flowing again.

Too bad weatherwiz didn't refer to its Miller classification...

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to some extent this reminds me of an atlantic hurricane heading towards the obx and getting shunted out to sea by a frontal passage.  i know it's not the same, but it just has that appearance...to me at least.  re lwx disco...too many vorts.  that's pretty clear on the guidance for a while.  we do better on this side of the mountains when there's a stronger vort sliding underneath.  i guess that sort of happens with this system.  i'm not knowledgeable to understand the interaction mentioned by the out to sea storm and the approaching frontal boundary, but i recall that happening before.  i'm game for 1-2".  might even need to break the mtb out if that happens...haven't biked on powder yet, but it kinda sounds fun.

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Remember it was Wednesday 18z NAM that lost the storm last week and eventually brought it back so it will probably be the same this week to some degree but I think the SC to Maine blizzard idea is off the board. Not just because of the NAM but all the guidance today. The thing just gets going too late for anybody south of NJ/NYC to really cash in.

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5 minutes ago, weathercoins said:

What is the area in black? 

72C87EAC-BF14-4237-A5F7-4AE4E32674D6.jpeg

What goes on in one's mind when they decide they need to come up with a snow map with such detail?  He has five geographical ranges with five percentage values for each range and each geographical ranges has a unique percentage spread.  I give him cred for such a statistics boondoggle.  I'm in the 3-6", 40% confidence band.  Hope he's right. 

 

Eta, I assume the black area is just the storm impacted zone.  

 

Etax2...if I squint I'm about right on the blue line so close to 7-11" 35% confidence.  I'm gonna clutch those pearls.  

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