mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF Pete from WPC had a nice thread last night on twitter that EJ posted. Said the banding he thinks could happen could be very similar to the Jan 6/7 event where places like Frederick and west picked up 6+ because of it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s different but I’ve heard people mention it on Twitter. Nice that they also think there’s upside potential similar to what Pete Mullinax and HM have said. That and the ULL are what I’m watching. ah ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Pete from WPC had a nice thread last night that EJ posted. Said the banding he thinks could happen could be very similar to the Jan 6/7 event where places like Frederick and west picked up 6+ because of it. Thank you for that... I will try and find it so I can read up on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Thank you for that... I will try and find it so I can read up on it i got you friend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Through 36...well...lets just track the ULL snows lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, mappy said: i got you friend THANK YOU! I appreciate it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM is not looking great so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is an ugly run...for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The NS amounts to basically nothing from the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yuck 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It’s pretty hard to take this model seriously. Ever. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlh Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Yuck Not buying that one bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, jlh said: Not buying that one bit. Dafuq 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jlh said: Not buying that one bit. The rain? LWX AFD mentioned that could happen at the start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yikes, the NAM isnt going to have any snow west of the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 What in tarnation is this mess? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam strengthened the entirely wrong low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Ravens94 said: Nam strengthened the entirely wrong low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: Yuck Strung out garbled mess 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 51 minutes ago, yoda said: LWX has a great and awesomesauce disco this afternoon... hats off to them. Well written as well .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED WINTER STORM THREAT AS MAJOR STORM LURKS OFFSHORE... Overview... The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader "low-end" and "high-end" potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the "expected" snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days. For the latest forecast details, please visit: www.weather.gov/lwx/winter. Technical summary... A mid-level jet max and weak isentropic lift well ahead of the large scale trough will impinge on the Allegheny Front beginning as early as shortly after sundown Thursday. At least scattered snow shower activity is anticipated as a result Thursday night over favored upslope areas, with a couple of inches possible mainly along western facing ridges through daybreak Friday. This axis of lift will slip slowly southward and eastward during the day Friday while the upper trough sharpens across the TN/OH Valley. The trough will have 3 embedded shortwaves within it: a shortwave pivoting from SE MO to E KY, a southern stream vorticity ribbon arcing back through the ArkLaMiss to TX, and a trailing northern stream shortwave diving into the upper Great Lakes. It appears the trailing vorticity ribbon will become ingested in the main shortwave trough, phasing sufficiently to result in strong surface cyclogenesis in a PVA regime ahead of the trough as it interacts with a baroclinic zone near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the trailing northern stream shortwave likely also becomes infused into the large trough, aided in part by very transient/weak blocking from the Arctic high retreating off through the Canadian Maritimes. As all of these pieces conjoin, rapidly deepening surface low pressure will track northward off the Eastern Seaboard. The question is exactly how far offshore the low tracks. A consensus of the latest model/ensemble data as well as the background UA pattern suggest a low track from about 150 miles east of the Outer Banks of NC to just outside (SE of) the 40 N/70 W benchmark off the New England coast. With the lack of a more substantial downstream block over the North Atlantic, the low is more likely to track far enough offshore and deepen far enough to the east and north that the heaviest band of snow would setup toward the NJ/New England coast, with the northwestern edge setting up over southern MD and the Eastern Shore. The infamous gradient between lighter and heavier snowfall may end up near the I-95 corridor, and thus bears a very close watch. Otherwise, most of the accumulating snowfall for the majority of the area will come from the upper trough axis itself. Snow may mix with rain at the onset for lower elevations east of I-81 and south of I-70 Friday afternoon due to boundary layer temperatures progged into the mid to upper 30s. Upslope enhancement over the higher terrain will likely result in locally higher amounts over the Alleghenies. One thing to note, despite an overall relatively lighter expected snowfall across the majority of the area, the overall pattern somewhat resembles that of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event), where moisture from an intense, distant (offshore) low interacts with a mid- level frontal zone. This may result in a band of enhanced snowfall as hinted at in some runs of higher resolution guidance, but certainty on its magnitude and placement is low at this time. Of greater certainty is increasing winds and plunging temperatures as the low lifts out toward the Northeast heading into Saturday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely by Saturday evening, and blowing snow is possible as winds increase. Snow may linger in the I-95 corridor through Saturday morning depending on the evolution of the offshore low, but dry conditions should return areawide east of the Allegheny Front by nightfall. The “problem” is there are like 6 moving parts to this. No forecast can be derived from that. The first snow was an already organized low pressure moving northeast from Atlanta. Virtually no moving parts and easy to forecast with usually confirmed outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NEXT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The hits keep coming. NAM just sharted and didn’t change its pants 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ukie coup? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 45 minutes ago, Lucketts Life said: Is the Shuckin Shack worthy of stopping by if you're passing through Frederick? Yes but it’s mostly a bar after 6 on weekend so get there 4:30ish if you want it quieter for mostly eating 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Well the entire northeast probably gets screwed on that run so theres that. If we cant win nobody wins! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ah nothing like tracking cloudy skies for a week. Woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Sorry the NAM lost your blizzard, all of AmWx. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 OBX Jackpot for the entire storm? Progressive trof with strung out ss vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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