CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, alexderiemer said: I'm feeling a little nervous that the east trend might even skunk us, but I feel like 4-5" is a reasonable expectation as of right now. Clearly GFS is taking the Euro to the woodshed in terms of forecasting accuracy, so it's hard to be excited for more.. Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. But I’ve been trying to “see” why that is happening. Perhaps it’s the changes up over Hudson Bay that are bumping it west. I don’t know. It also appears slightly stronger. Has to be the TPV there. Its hard to track that thing on the various models because it truly does wobble around and its very inconsistent clicking through everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday. We will need pics please 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Yeah a couple more runs and I think the Euro and GFS will look about the same. Hopefully there is a little improvement from the GFS in getting to that point.Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, alexderiemer said: Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd... Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Real talk Alex. I find the appeal of this one much greater since it is occurring during the day and should be less windy versus Jan 3rd. Some prefer the wind but nasomuch here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Kay said: We will need pics please If I go there will be. Probably has to be a legit chance for at least a half a foot for me to go, unless my yard looks to be completely missed or fringed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 33 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty significant cave to the GFS. Euro had been showing 20+“ totals in NJ and Delmarva. Yeah, even chasing to the coast not looking all that great off this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Shuckin Shack is the spot to go in Frederick for some o’s I was hoping I had foundThePlace! Chincoteagues for $16.99 a dozen can’t be beat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, alexderiemer said: Is it really worth chasing for 5" though? We got more than that January 3rd... Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Normally no, but the upcoming period looks more dicey for snow on the coastal plain, and I could use a fix- of snow and DFH. Rehoboth beach and Lewes are actually my favorite nearby places to visit.True, and very photogenic in the snow. I already pucked up my post roast for Friday night dinner...just tastes better on a cold and stormy night. About to head to work...at a grocery store. They don't care if the forecast is a inch, they panic either way...Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The last storm that was easily pushed out had a 1040 high settling into West PA. This cold source does not have as much strength and is mostly settled in instead of moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me. He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!" The world would be a better place if we all had his attitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 29 minutes ago, Interstate said: I love how you do not have one pessimistic bone in your body. Every time I see your posts it brightens my day. I recall him being a bit pessimistic for Jan 3rd though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: The last storm that was easily pushed out had a 1040 high settling into West PA. This cold source does not have as much strength and is mostly settled in instead of moving in. That high pressure gradient was roaring in near white-out conditions if not outright momentarily. Unreal storm for us that Jan 3rd. Not to boast but It was actually too violent to be enjoyable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 35 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me. He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!" This is how I picture Roger....... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Unless we see some drastic changes at 00z, I’m likely heading up north to “see family” for this one 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I agree. But I’ve been trying to “see” why that is happening. Perhaps it’s the changes up over Hudson Bay that are bumping it west. I don’t know. It also appears slightly stronger. GFS for roughly the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 FWIW (probably not much)..... 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 so all models show the 'flare up'? sweet - we're back in it for a good snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, anotherman said: FWIW (probably not much)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, anotherman said: FWIW (probably not much)..... Roger Smith may be holding this guy hostage at the moment. Still hope he is right 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 LWX has a great and awesomesauce disco this afternoon... hats off to them. Well written as well .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... ...SLIGHT TO ENHANCED WINTER STORM THREAT AS MAJOR STORM LURKS OFFSHORE... Overview... The evolving large scale weather/jet stream pattern across the U.S. as well as latest model guidance continue to suggest the potential of a major, rapidly deepening area of low pressure moving northward off the East Coast Friday into Saturday. Although the brunt of the storm looks to be headed for New England, the Mid-Atlantic region will be on the western periphery of the rather large system resulting in an increasing likelihood of accumulating snow. Uncertainty remains in the all important details, and users are encouraged to focus on the broader "low-end" and "high-end" potential snowfall amounts at this time range, with the caveat that the situation is still evolving, the storm has yet to form, and continued variability is likely in the "expected" snowfall amounts as finer scale details come into clearer focus over the next couple of days. For the latest forecast details, please visit: www.weather.gov/lwx/winter. Technical summary... A mid-level jet max and weak isentropic lift well ahead of the large scale trough will impinge on the Allegheny Front beginning as early as shortly after sundown Thursday. At least scattered snow shower activity is anticipated as a result Thursday night over favored upslope areas, with a couple of inches possible mainly along western facing ridges through daybreak Friday. This axis of lift will slip slowly southward and eastward during the day Friday while the upper trough sharpens across the TN/OH Valley. The trough will have 3 embedded shortwaves within it: a shortwave pivoting from SE MO to E KY, a southern stream vorticity ribbon arcing back through the ArkLaMiss to TX, and a trailing northern stream shortwave diving into the upper Great Lakes. It appears the trailing vorticity ribbon will become ingested in the main shortwave trough, phasing sufficiently to result in strong surface cyclogenesis in a PVA regime ahead of the trough as it interacts with a baroclinic zone near the Bahamas. Meanwhile, the trailing northern stream shortwave likely also becomes infused into the large trough, aided in part by very transient/weak blocking from the Arctic high retreating off through the Canadian Maritimes. As all of these pieces conjoin, rapidly deepening surface low pressure will track northward off the Eastern Seaboard. The question is exactly how far offshore the low tracks. A consensus of the latest model/ensemble data as well as the background UA pattern suggest a low track from about 150 miles east of the Outer Banks of NC to just outside (SE of) the 40 N/70 W benchmark off the New England coast. With the lack of a more substantial downstream block over the North Atlantic, the low is more likely to track far enough offshore and deepen far enough to the east and north that the heaviest band of snow would setup toward the NJ/New England coast, with the northwestern edge setting up over southern MD and the Eastern Shore. The infamous gradient between lighter and heavier snowfall may end up near the I-95 corridor, and thus bears a very close watch. Otherwise, most of the accumulating snowfall for the majority of the area will come from the upper trough axis itself. Snow may mix with rain at the onset for lower elevations east of I-81 and south of I-70 Friday afternoon due to boundary layer temperatures progged into the mid to upper 30s. Upslope enhancement over the higher terrain will likely result in locally higher amounts over the Alleghenies. One thing to note, despite an overall relatively lighter expected snowfall across the majority of the area, the overall pattern somewhat resembles that of a PRE (Predecessor Rain Event), where moisture from an intense, distant (offshore) low interacts with a mid- level frontal zone. This may result in a band of enhanced snowfall as hinted at in some runs of higher resolution guidance, but certainty on its magnitude and placement is low at this time. Of greater certainty is increasing winds and plunging temperatures as the low lifts out toward the Northeast heading into Saturday. Dangerously cold wind chills are likely by Saturday evening, and blowing snow is possible as winds increase. Snow may linger in the I-95 corridor through Saturday morning depending on the evolution of the offshore low, but dry conditions should return areawide east of the Allegheny Front by nightfall. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sernest14 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12z 3k NAM at 60 looks a bit WSW compared to other models (12k NAM included) with the low closer to GA/FL (a much larger precip field than GFS at the same time as well). Not sure if that means anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I am going to hold out until the Friday morning runs of the HRRR. I hope they can save us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam is currently out to 9 hours, lets hope for a good NS snowfall for the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF #newnormal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Life Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said: Randy I just had some oysters up at a place in Frederick called Shuckin Shack. Chincoteagues no less. I could pick you up and we go to Harris on Kent Island for their AYCE Oysters 7 ways (including fresh shucked right in front of you) .Or do Old Ebbits again You make the call! Is the Shuckin Shack worthy of stopping by if you're passing through Frederick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: Anyone know the last time PRE and winter weather were discussed in the same sentence? Interesting mention by LWX in their AFD about it @csnavywx @WxUSAF It’s different but I’ve heard people mention it on Twitter. Nice that they also think there’s upside potential similar to what Pete Mullinax and HM have said. That and the ULL are what I’m watching. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam with some negative changes early out west with the vort more west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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