January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat

[pazzo83]

54 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

To all members,

I feel like I need to apologize to you all for what happened earlier.  I'm sorry.  I lost my temper.  I'm not going to blame a "bad day" or some external reason.  There is no reason or excuse. I just lost it and I'm sorry y'all had to see it.  I can't say it was behavior unbecoming of an admin because let's face it, I suck as an admin and I don't even look at myself as one.  I'm only an admin because I co-founded this board.  Yeah, I joke about banning people, but most of you all know it's just that...jokes.  Thank God @IronTy wife isn't the sole owner of this board, because after this morning,  she'd be driving down 95 to pay me a visit.    With that said, I'm opting out of pbp.  Not because of what happened today (well mostly not), it's because I'm just sick of this see-sawing GD storm.   

Again, apologies to the board.

This has been a helluva two years for every single one of us - we all deserve some grace when we lose it a bit.

[jaydreb]

5 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Pretty significant cave to the GFS.  Euro had been showing 20+“ totals in NJ and Delmarva.  

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Lol 4”. Im hoping for 1

Yep. At this point I'm not expecting much at all. Will gladly take whatever we can get but the front end part of it doesn't look to be as aggressive as it was a few days ago.

Hopefully it makes a comeback over the next few runs. 

[RevWarReenactor]

8 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Sold!

 

Too bad its the Euro.

[WEATHER53]

58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

To all members,

I feel like I need to apologize to you all for what happened earlier.  I'm sorry.  I lost my temper.  I'm not going to blame a "bad day" or some external reason.  There is no reason or excuse. I just lost it and I'm sorry y'all had to see it.  I can't say it was behavior unbecoming of an admin because let's face it, I suck as an admin and I don't even look at myself as one.  I'm only an admin because I co-founded this board.  Yeah, I joke about banning people, but most of you all know it's just that...jokes.  Thank God @IronTy wife isn't the sole owner of this board, because after this morning,  she'd be driving down 95 to pay me a visit.    With that said, I'm opting out of pbp.  Not because of what happened today (well mostly not), it's because I'm just sick of this see-sawing GD storm.   

Again, apologies to the board.

A hug from your favorite old white guy or come down and open up a can of whup ass and cure the malaise? Please just let me know.

Thanks 

 

[mattie g]

Once again, my dad jinxes a storm...this time for my family in South Jersey.

He sent an e-mail with an image of the 06z Euro snow totals at 9:30 am, and a couple hours later the 12z suite deflated his whoopie cushion.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

A hug from your favorite old white guy or come down and open up a can of whup ass and cure the malaise? Please just let me know.

Thanks 

 

[Bodhi Cove]

[Amped]

23 minutes ago, LP08 said:

NS definitely better divining into the trof there...if we could just kick out more the Southern wave.

Feel like we were saying the same thing about last weeks storm.

[CAPE]

[weathercoins]

GFS upgrade really seems like it has made a significant difference. Maybe that’s an obvious understatement. But starting to really question the value of the former King in the 3-6 day range, beyond creating fun snow maps 

[WinterWxLuvr]

I’m scrolling run after run trying to discern a difference in what’s happening out west and can’t really find anything. Only hope I have is that this is so delicate out there that meaningful changes there wouldn’t be that hard to have. 

[Yeoman]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

To all members,

I feel like I need to apologize to you all for what happened earlier.  I'm sorry.  I lost my temper.  I'm not going to blame a "bad day" or some external reason.  There is no reason or excuse. I just lost it and I'm sorry y'all had to see it.  I can't say it was behavior unbecoming of an admin because let's face it, I suck as an admin and I don't even look at myself as one.  I'm only an admin because I co-founded this board.  Yeah, I joke about banning people, but most of you all know it's just that...jokes.  Thank God @IronTy wife isn't the sole owner of this board, because after this morning,  she'd be driving down 95 to pay me a visit.    With that said, I'm opting out of pbp.  Not because of what happened today (well mostly not), it's because I'm just sick of this see-sawing GD storm.   

Again, apologies to the board.

Damn I missed it! F-in work.. 

[Roger Smith]

One reason for optimism is that the last storm shifted west relative to much of the guidance and NAM had a better handle on that. So if the same thing happens this time, it's a better outcome than many of these recent model runs would have you believe. I still think that very warm Atlantic is going to play a role and that has to be a factor in favor of a coastward shift. 

[CAPE]

This is what it is now. A tweak here or there, but in the end I expect there to be a light to moderate snow for the general area, with those pretty shades of pink on the Euro confined to the immediate coast or gone altogether.

[mattie g]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m scrolling run after run trying to discern a difference in what’s happening out west and can’t really find anything. Only hope I have is that this is so delicate out there that meaningful changes there wouldn’t be that hard to have. 

That energy in central Canada is just racing out ahead now. Too much spacing between those two pieces of energy and we can't get the phase to happen at the right time.

[CAPE]

As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday.

[stormtracker]

I'm here to tell yall...when you let it go and emotionally divest from this storm, it feels great.   Do it.  Trust me.  It's over and we all know it's over.  We lost, but we'll win again.  It could come back, miracles happen as evidenced by people saying I do great pbp.  And they are saying it on purpose.  Anything is possible.   Yeah, I'm going to check the models, but to quote an important and Oscar worthy film (Spiderman)...expect disappointment and you won't be disappointed.  I'm going sledding on Capitol Hill Saturday.

lol, no I'm not.  I'll be on my couch drinking.  

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

One reason for optimism is that the last storm shifted west relative to much of the guidance and NAM had a better handle on that. So if the same thing happens this time, it's a better outcome than many of these recent model runs would have you believe. I still think that very warm Atlantic is going to play a role and that has to be a factor in favor of a coastward shift. 

I love how you do not have one pessimistic bone in your body.  Every time I see your posts it brightens my day.

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m scrolling run after run trying to discern a difference in what’s happening out west and can’t really find anything. Only hope I have is that this is so delicate out there that meaningful changes there wouldn’t be that hard to have. 

I'm not the smartest but look at the trend of the last 5 0z/12z runs with the SW through MT.  It dives in further west each run.  This broadens the long wave trof and keeps it more positive as it moves east before the next NS vort phases. This causes the first one to "stretch" and get left behind.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm here to tell yall...when you let it go and emotionally divest from this storm, it feels great.   Do it.  Trust me.  It's over and we all know it's over.  We lost, but we'll win again.  It could come back, miracles happen as evidenced by people saying I do great pbp.  And they are saying it on purpose.  Anything is possible.   Yeah, I'm going to check the models, but to quote an important and Oscar worthy film (Spiderman)...expect disappointment and you won't be disappointed.  I'm going sledding on Capitol Hill Saturday.

lol, no I'm not.  I'll be on my couch drinking.  

There will be one more storm to miss me to the north... Then the big one comes... and I jackpot with over 2'... This is the way.

[SnowenOutThere]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I'm here to tell yall...when you let it go and emotionally divest from this storm, it feels great.   Do it.  Trust me.  It's over and we all know it's over.  We lost, but we'll win again.  It could come back, miracles happen as evidenced by people saying I do great pbp.  And they are saying it on purpose.  Anything is possible.   Yeah, I'm going to check the models, but to quote an important and Oscar worthy film (Spiderman)...expect disappointment and you won't be disappointed.  I'm going sledding on Capitol Hill Saturday.

lol, no I'm not.  I'll be on my couch drinking.  

Yep, let go of hope for the coastal and accepted a simple clipper type event. Feel a lot better now.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Interstate said:

I love how you do not have one pessimistic bone in your body.  Every time I see your posts it brightens my day.

If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me.  He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!" 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That energy in central Canada is just racing out ahead now. Too much spacing between those two pieces of energy and we can't get the phase to happen at the right time.

I agree about the phase but I think the ns has been the consistent piece. It’s that southern piece that keeps changing. But hey it all seems very delicate so no quit here. But I have very low expectations. If I wake up Friday thinking I have a shot at 2-4” I’ll be thrilled.

[CAPE]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm here to tell yall...when you let it go and emotionally divest from this storm, it feels great.   Do it.  Trust me.  It's over and we all know it's over.  We lost, but we'll win again.  It could come back, miracles happen as evidenced by people saying I do great pbp.  And they are saying it on purpose.  Anything is possible.   Yeah, I'm going to check the models, but to quote an important and Oscar worthy film (Spiderman)...expect disappointment and you won't be disappointed.  I'm going sledding on Capitol Hill Saturday.

lol, no I'm not.  I'll be on my couch drinking.  

Those days are over for me. Last time I lost any sleep model watching was 2016. Just do what makes you happy and generally disengage emotionally from stuff you have zero control over.

[WEATHER53]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Randy I just had some oysters up at a place in Frederick called Shuckin Shack.  Chincoteagues no less. 
I could pick you up and we go to Harris on Kent Island for their AYCE Oysters 7 ways (including fresh shucked right in front of you) .Or do Old Ebbits again 

You make the call!

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I'm not the smartest but look at the trend of the last 5 0z/12z runs with the SW through MT.  It dives in further west each run.  This broadens the long wave trof and keeps it more positive as it moves east before the next NS vort phases. This causes the first one to "stretch" and get left behind.

I agree. But I’ve been trying to “see” why that is happening. Perhaps it’s the changes up over Hudson Bay that are bumping it west. I don’t know. It also appears slightly stronger.

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Randy I just had some oysters up at a place in Frederick called Shuckin Shack.  Chincoteagues no less. 
I could pick you up and we go to Harris on Kent Island for their AYCE Oysters 7 ways (including fresh shucked right in front of you) .Or do Old Ebbits again 

You make the call!

 

Shuckin Shack is the spot to go in Frederick for some o’s 

[AlexD1990]

As it stands I am probably heading to Rehoboth on Friday.

I'm feeling a little nervous that the east trend might even skunk us, but I feel like 4-5" is a reasonable expectation as of right now. Clearly GFS is taking the Euro to the woodshed in terms of forecasting accuracy, so it's hard to be excited for more..

Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk

[Vice-Regent]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

If I'm ever in a war, pinned down in a foxhole with enemy troops advancing on me from every direction, I want Roger Smith in there with me.  He'd take out his M16 and look out into the battlefield, seeing 20 tanks, 40 howitzers on all sides and 400 troops closing in and tell me, with a straight face...."dude, we are going to f*ck them up!"