87storms Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 the trough axis almost looked slightly better or at least more like the cmc as it neared our longitude. idk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Weaker phasing on the GEFS 18z thru 84, got a feeling some of the members are holding that energy back as well. Going to be an east outcome for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Time for a break...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Yeah, GEFS not going to make many friends here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, 87storms said: the trough axis almost looked slightly better or at least more like the cmc as it neared our longitude. idk This is the problem- energy left behind and the trough doesn't dig as much and is broader as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 If we hadn't seen such positive trends to the point of the 18z GFS/GEFS, that run would be a disaster for sure, but the GFS is now the furtheast east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: This is the problem- energy left behind and the trough doesn't dig as much and is broader as it approaches. Ridge axis isn't in as good a spot either, too far west, compared to earlier. Not sure if that's the effect of the energy being left behind in the southwest, or if it's causing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, 87storms said: hard to really even find the key differences between 12 and 18z. seems like it was just a subtle difference with that energy that drops in from the pac nw/canada. probably want that energy to be a little more consolidated to carve out a better trough. Subtle differences. The SW was further west but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: This is the problem- energy left behind and the trough doesn't dig as much and is broader as it approaches. yea i'm just saying it might not take much to get a better solution. imo 12z looked kinda wonky to an extent. how often is a trough that narrow like the gfs showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: Ridge axis isn't in as good a spot either, too far west, compared to earlier. Not sure if that's the effect of the energy being left behind in the southwest, or if it's causing that. Yeah, now its almost too far west. Started too far east, now that energy as you mentioned is pumping it up causing the flat heights out in front as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: This is mdecoys fault for that stupid “I can chase this anywhere” post. Snow gods heard and said “hope he has a boat!” LOL....yeah. I am always wrong. So GFS was determined to invalidate my chasing post. Ill just quit with the comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Subtle differences. The SW was further west but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind. That's pretty easy to see earlier on in the run as well (hr 66-90). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Did we give up when the German’s bombed Pearl Harbor?! Hell no! We need the Mid Atlantic forum bingo cards back. Forgot who posted those a while back but they were classic 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 18z GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Subtle differences. The SW was further east but the trough was more progressive so instead of riding the base and amplifying it stretched and got left behind. i think we should toss that one lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Euro was holding energy back as well. Hope its not a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The two pieces have to come in sync. That obviously did not happen. The sw piece currently sits at 160w long, 55n lat. The northern piece as far as I can tell resides somewhere in the vicinity of the Alaska/Yukon border. It also appears highly influenced by disturbances rotating around the PV. I’m sure the models have all of those pieces figured out perfectly at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though. Don't love the evolution and the reduced phasing/digging. Gives some credence to what the op just did. Not UKMET bad, but a step back. Expect we might see 2 camps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though. It’s all relative. 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J.Mike Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 23 minutes ago, H2O said: Just a reminder that the Chiefs only needed 13 sec to tie and go on to win the game. Not saying football is like weather but I'm saying football is like weather 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: LOL....yeah. I am always wrong. So GFS was determined to invalidate my chasing post. Ill just quit with the comments. Take a joke dude 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Lets look on the bright side- Isn't the GFS showing some mood flakes from the northern piece of energy? Whats that worth? 1-3 inches? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: The Euro was holding energy back as well. Hope its not a trend. I’m pretty sure that holding energy in the sw is a pretty common model bias. It used to be especially true of the euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Take a joke dude I did. My comment back at you was meant in a joking way. Not in a serious one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 We are basically in a dry pattern regarding winter storms. You can hash it it or dash anyway you wish, but that is a fact. The very dry progressive pattern northwest to southeast kicks potential storms off the east coast. The vortex over eastern Canada needs to relax. This will change in February, but will we still have enough cold air? Friday/Saturday? Possible, but not likely. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: LOL....yeah. I am always wrong. So GFS was determined to invalidate my chasing post. Ill just quit with the comments. 2 minutes ago, RevWarReenactor said: I did. My comment back at you was meant in a joking way. Not in a serious one. Awwww 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z GEFS isn't bad. Not as good as 6 or 12z though. Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, stormtracker said: How about we all relax and lets see if this was a true setback, or a blip. Here, this should give you deep, deep comfort: The NAM looked good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, stormy said: We are basically in a dry pattern regarding winter storms. You can hash it it or dash anyway you wish, but that is a fact. The very dry progressive pattern northwest to southeast kicks potential storms off the east coast. The vortex over eastern Canada needs to relax. This will change in February, but will we still have enough cold air? Friday/Saturday? Possible, but not likely. Hot take. You’re like the models .. you already know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: Says the dude 100 miles east of me. Lol sorry had too. But it is valid for the NW crew we still weren’t really into it and needed more west trends so a setback is more problematic. Also we all know these miss east 90% of the time so seeing the best global recently go that way feels more meaningful that it should. But it could easily be a blip or head fake. We won’t know until 0z. All due respect, you aren’t part of the nw crew lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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