Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Mount Holly headlines are informative, and keeping it pretty general for now. Expected given the uncertainty. Informative slide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Can anyone recall a similar setup like this in the past where the storm actually did move to the West approaching the beginning of the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 21 minutes ago, BristowWx said: seems reasonable. eastern PWC for sure....for us...maybe. who knows...we were supposed to get what 3 inches last friday and got 3 minutes of flakes...these things have way of just doing what they will do I'm right there with y'all in PWC, 2-3" around FXBG would be great, solid Advisory level Snow. Pie in the sky hope is for a warning 5"+ to verify around here, but I will love the 2-4" of Snow on a Friday Afternoon and Evening and have a great time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSG Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'll be happy with whatever falls here in Cville. This will be snow-on-snow-on-snow-on-snow (x4) for us. Would've been hard to believe a month ago 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonelaureliano1 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just wanted to say thank you for the great discussion from the mets on the last couple pages, and hey at least for once temps are good and any snow will stick right away! 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, BlizzardNole said: If that map verified Calvert County would have triple the snowfall to date compared to places like Frederick Gooooood... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed What's your thoughts on the front end action Friday Afternoon/evening. Models seem to be cutting back on that. Was hoping for a few inches from that but I'm starting to be skeptical of that also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: I feel like this is either gonna come further west or scoot out to sea. The current solutions are just not climo. Not to say oc won’t actually get a major storm but I don’t think the models are done moving targets around. What I will say is that the entire setup does seem to favor east with a less than ideal trough placement but we also had that January 16 storm with a sharp negative tilt so maybe there’s still a chance. The current tracks are actually quite climo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Chris78 said: What's your thoughts on the front end action Friday Afternoon/evening. Models seem to be cutting back on that. Was hoping for a few inches from that but I'm starting to be skeptical of that also. @WxUSAF had a good post on that earlier this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed Yea the overall setup really hasn’t changed much over the last few days. Trough is too far east. I’m holding out hope for a sharper/further west northern stream vort today but it’s looking less likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The current tracks are actually quite climo. Yea you got me before I deleted my post lol. I thought about it and was like even the coastal areas are on the edge right now. General thoughts still stand tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, Chris78 said: What's your thoughts on the front end action Friday Afternoon/evening. Models seem to be cutting back on that. Was hoping for a few inches from that but I'm starting to be skeptical of that also. It's an unusual setup. Conventional thinking makes it look like waa precip on the north side of a developing low but that's not it so it's going to behave different @WxUSAF crushed it with his earlier post. We have lift overhead and a good column for quality snow. Arctic energy is notoriously dry. But the sharp trough and backing flow downstream could juice it up. Wait and see for me. Not sure that piece can be dialed in until the early coastal development is locked in 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: I'm right there with y'all in PWC, 2-3" around FXBG would be great, solid Advisory level Snow. Pie in the sky hope is for a warning 5"+ to verify around here, but I will love the 2-4" of Snow on a Friday Afternoon and Evening and have a great time! someone said it yesterday...we are not on top of Mt. Washington...can't dismiss 2-3 inches because some winters that is ALL we get. I will enjoy checking the obs on Mt. Washington however come Saturday...those should be interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 hours ago, Ji said: Brutal....everytime we need a good trend or a hold Everytime Never fails 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Reminder if you say that something fails to trend positively everytime that means you are locked in to the fact that there has never ever been a storm that trended positively in the history of storms thus looking like a complete fool who acts like they are a 10 yr old spoiled brat. Time to move bro you don't like it here anymore go be happy somewhere. Ji speaks in exaggeration. But he’s right that ALMOST everytime this happens. But that’s our fault. Partly the way we analyze the model runs and partly fooling ourselves. Because the truth is very rarely is a setup actually a high probability one for us. But a lot of our snow also comes from getting lucky like 10% of the time on the much more common low probability long shot chances we get numerous times a year. 90% of them will fail and in the back of our minds we know that. But we still get our hopes up when one or two fluke runs show the lucky low probability outcome we want and think “maybe this is the one”. The other issue is how we digest guidance each run. We knew this wasn’t a good setup. And we never once had the preponderance of evidence in favor. The most we ever had one one model in any given suite showing a hit. First the GFS then Euro. But every run we dig to find some shred of evidence to suggest it’s trending to that rare lucky fluke. I hear things like “it’s a miss but it’s heading the right way”. No it’s not. It’s a single model projection. It’s not heading anywhere. It was just slightly better than the last run. The next run is just as likely to be worse. But we manipulate the data in our heads to think “it’s trending better”. We put too much weight into the one piece of good evidence when 90% is bad. This happens every low probability threat then people get disappointed when what was always the 90% option happens. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Hi All -- a request from Management: Lets dial back the banter during model runs today so those reading don't have to wade through a bunch of "OMG" "JAWS!" and Waterboy memes. Once model runs are done, have it. Thanks so much! Mom 14 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The NAM is rolling. Can it pull us back in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Models are converging on a climo type outcome. A bit disappointing but no surprise. Still time blah blah blah but these setups have a long history here. If 12z euro slides east with the coastal snow I'm dropping hopes of coastal love in my yard. Kinda hard to get upset at the most common outcome being portrayed Exactly, seasonal trends so far, combined with climo, Nina, etc., all seem to converge on a less impactful event away from the coast. Of course, there can still be positive changes, but those seem to be fading for areas to the West. But, even some snow combined with high winds and cold temps will make for a nice winter landscape. @CAPE seems to be in a good location and I have faith in @MillvilleWx latest thoughts that here in Delaware we can still get a decent event. Outside the models is the luck factor which is still in play for some. On to the NAM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Hi All -- a request from Management: Lets dial back the banter during model runs today so those reading don't have to wade through a bunch of "OMG" "JAWS!" and Waterboy memes. Once model runs are done, have it. Thanks so much! Mom Morning Mappy, the damn beer bet doesn't look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Morning Mappy, the damn beer bet doesn't look good I forgot the terms. Snow is snow friend, no matter the amount. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: The NAM is rolling. Can it pull us back in? Let’s get a good NAMing to set the day right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Ji speaks in exaggeration. But he’s right that ALMOST everytime this happens. But that’s our fault. Partly the way we analyze the model runs and partly fooling ourselves. Because the truth is very rarely is a setup actually a high probability one for us. But a lot of our snow also comes from getting lucky like 10% of the time on the much more common low probability long shot chances we get numerous times a year. 90% of them will fail and in the back of our minds we know that. But we still get our hopes up when one or two fluke runs show the lucky low probability outcome we want and think “maybe this is the one”. The other issue is how we digest guidance each run. We knew this wasn’t a good setup. And we never once had the preponderance of evidence in favor. The most we ever had one one model in any given suite showing a hit. First the GFS then Euro. But every run we dig to find some shred of evidence to suggest it’s trending to that rare lucky fluke. I hear things like “it’s a miss but it’s heading the right way”. No it’s not. It’s a single model projection. It’s not heading anywhere. It was just slightly better than the last run. The next run is just as likely to be worse. But we manipulate the data in our heads to think “it’s trending better”. We put too much weight into the one piece of good evidence when 90% is bad. This happens every low probability threat then people get disappointed when what was always the 90% option happens. aka, the Miller FU syndrome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 @Bob Chill I’m more disappointed in the degradation of the NS SW and upper level low pass. That has some potential v the coastal that I’ve never been excited for. Hopefully that stops trending south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, mappy said: I forgot the terms. Snow is snow friend, no matter the amount. 12 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Morning Mappy, the damn beer bet doesn't look good If we see a flurry, we get beer. Ok, sorry NAM, GO! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not really looking too closely at models this morning, but let's see if the NAM tries to suck us back in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @Bob Chill I’m more disappointed in the degradation of the NS SW and upper level low pass. That has some potential v the coastal that I’ve never been excited for. Hopefully that stops trending south. Maybe I’m being a weenie, but I feel like that “should” follow the standard N/NW adjustments as we move toward game time more than the surface low in this case. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I see some minor positive changes through 36 on the NAM compared to 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, LP08 said: I see some minor positive changes through 36 on the NAM. Looks better so far at hour 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Well guys, this is it for me. 12z. IF things go down hill, I think Imma walk away for a bit. Not gonna stay here and whine and mope and shit up the thread for everyone else. So, here I am 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, frd said: Looks better so far at hour 39. Agreed, should be a bit better downstream provided the phase stays clean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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