January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat

[yoda]

hmmmm

[yoda]

[jayyy]

Yep. 6z icon is a whiff too. Even further east than the GFS and Nam

[jayyy]

Just now, yoda said:

I’d sign up in a heartbeat 

[anotherman]

It seems like that will bust badly.

[MillvilleWx]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

High probability that is a lot of NBM with some minor finessing this far out. It'll see a lot of updates in the next few days.  

[jayyy]

3 minutes ago, anotherman said:

It seems like that will bust badly.

Not necessarily. If places manage 2-3” from the NS and 1-2” from the coastal (95 east) and a bit less further west, it’s doable. But I agree that the trend isn’t being our friend right now. Another few runs like this, and yeah, even these totals are too high. But it’s early. They have time to fine tune. 

[CAPE]

From Mount Holly this morning-

Similar to last night, the majority of tonight`s 26.00z guidance had an overall eastward look relative to their more westward 25.12z counterparts. The phasing between the shortwaves generally happened later, with a more positive tilt longwave trough as it approached the Southeast coast. This then results in a further east track of the surface low. Even the EC, which remains on the western edge and still shows a high impact event, was a little more east. And other models such as the GFS and UKMET are even further east and would be quite low impact for our region. But there are still more western solutions on the table, such as the 0z NAM. Upper air changes on most of the models were quite subtle, but as has been discussed, downstream output will be contingent on very minor changes occurring over the next 24 hours. Today`s trends will certainly be important. With all of the shortwave energy at least over land now, sampling will be steadily improving, and "big picture" model solutions should start converging in the next 12 to 24 hours.

[nj2va]

It seems like the general 1-4” that has been consistently showing up on the models the last several days (ignoring ICON ofc) is coming into focus as we get under 72H.  The Eastern Shore of MD and DE look to be the bullseye where 4-8”+ is becoming more likely.  

We’re within 48 hours from first flakes in western MD (and 60 hours for most of the area) so the finer details of amounts/etc will start getting worked out.  

 

[osfan24]

I think the phrase is "it's getting late, early."

Looks like all the models are realizing it's a Miller B in a La Nina. 

[Solution Man]

We fail good 

[dailylurker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

We fail good 

Dude.. there's a easy overrunning event and blocking in 10 days.. blah blah blah.. just another boring winter. At least here in Carroll County the mud stays frozen longer then AA county. 

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I think the phrase is "it's getting late, early."

Looks like all the models are realizing it's a Miller B in a La Nina. 

A good outcome in this pattern(progressive) has always been contingent on subtle interactions and timing, plus fundamentally we needed the NS trough to dig more than usual in these set ups. A lot has to go right for this to work out, especially for places not right along the coast. Hopefully today brings some better trends with the trough orientation.

[Solution Man]

Sterling:

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...

Uncertainty remains in the track of the coastal low pressure system
poised to move north Friday and into this weekend. Confidence is
increasing in a potential impactful event for the majority of the
Mid-Atlantic coast and further across New England. A deep, digging
trough will move eastward Friday into Saturday. This, coupled with
the surface low will bring the threat for impactful snow to most of
the area.

To start with, by late Thursday night a period of upslope snow
showers should begin for the Allegheny Front as the upper trough
begins to move further east. At this point, it is increasingly
likely that the Allegheny Front will see a prolonged snowfall
through late Friday given the upper level low and however the
surface low influences that portion of the area. The snow will
continue to track further east throughout the day Friday and totals
will be greatly impacted by the position and timing of the coastal
low and the upper level low.

There continues to be discontinuity in the exact position of a
coastal low set to form near the Carolinas. Latest ensemble means
for the position of the low remain in disagreement in terms of
timing and intensity. Snowfall totals for the 00z EPS show a more
bullish approach with a closer low track vs the 00z GEFS (3-5"
difference across portions of southern MD). Deterministic guidance
continues to show most of the higher totals across the Delmarva
Peninsula and further north-east. Should the track move further
west, then areas like southern MD and the I-95 corridor may see
significant changes in potential impacts and snowfall totals.
Guidance will continue to zero in on a potential track over the next
few days. To summarize, confidence is high on an accumulating
snowfall across most of the area but remains low with regards to
totals, especially the I-95 corridor and southern MD.

[Mikeymac5306]

No way this will recover west... 

 

[Baltimorewx]

Was obviously hoping to wake up to better news but I’m not surprised. The orientation of the trough and development of the storm taking place off the coast of Florida doesn’t really support big snow west of the bay. I mean hell you can’t even really tell there’s a storm on the surface 60 hours out. Our big snows usually develop inland over Georgia or something like that and then track to OBX etc. I’m still hopeful maybe most of us can still get 2” or so from the northern stream energy and just the very outer edge of the coastal though 

[RevWarReenactor]

I knew this would happen. Like I asked a few days ago; how much with that little northern energy thing? Still could we do 1-2 inches? I’d sign on the dotted line now.

 

 

 

[mappy]

A gentle reminder, if you're out, waving a white flag, given up... please don't post in the thread anymore. 

[Eskimo Joe]

This setup is a great example if why you need some kind of Atlantic blocking. Without a mechanism to slow down this event it just whiffs right out to sea. 

[H2O]

I’ll take whatever snow this thing gives us. If none, so be it. If some, great. 
 

All we can do is see how the angle of the vorts goes. 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I’ll take whatever snow this thing gives us. If none, so be it. If some, great. 
 

All we can do is see how the angle of the vorts goes. 

At least we don't have to worry about the angle of the cold this time

[aldie 22]

Reminder if you say that something fails to trend positively everytime that means you are locked in to the fact that there has never ever been a storm that trended positively in the history of storms thus looking like a complete fool who acts like they are a 10 yr old spoiled brat. Time to move bro you don't like it here anymore go be happy somewhere. 

[WxUSAF]

A few thoughts this morning:

1. Even with some better model runs, the coastal gets marginal additional precip west of the bay. Maybe that changes but I’m skeptical. @CAPE and everyone on Delmarva are still very much in the game for that. 
 

2. For the metro corridor and NW areas, we are in the game for the Friday evening precipitation that’s aligned with some deep upper air lift and the arctic air boundary sinking south. GFS has been pushing this farther south each run but Euro and GGEM have pretty consistently put it through NoVA and MD. Should have good dendrite formation in this. Encouragingly two very well respected Mets (Pete Mullinax from WPC and HM) have both said that there’s some good upside potential with this feature. 
 

3. Then we have the ULL passage overnight into Saturday morning. The stronger and earlier the 500mb low closes off the better. It provides lift as it goes by to our south and serves to pull moisture off the ocean and wring it out over the area. Again, GFS is currently farther south with this (over central VA), euro farther north near the metro corridor and GGEM sort of in between. Again good dendrite production with this and some possible upside potential if that 500mb low can close off and make a good pass south of us. 
 

So, if one area can hit on both of those features and they both juice up a bit, I could see a somewhat coherent region of 4-8” west of the Bay and west of the consolidated coastal-driven precip swath. I think either feature alone can provide 1-3”/2-4” and hopefully nobody gets skunked. 

[nj2va]

Through h83 on the 6z Euro, the 0.5” QPF line is inching towards 95 on the eastern side of the Beltway.

[mappy]

7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Reminder if you say that something fails to trend positively everytime that means you are locked in to the fact that there has never ever been a storm that trended positively in the history of storms thus looking like a complete fool who acts like they are a 10 yr old spoiled brat. Time to move bro you don't like it here anymore go be happy somewhere. 

i love this

[yoda]

Yeah, I'll take the 06z EURO please... ticked west a tad.  Better for some of us in the region

[IUsedToHateCold]

I’m not flying a white flag until the low is somewhere to my north and this thing is over. Play until the end of the game and sometimes you may snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

[nj2va]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

Yeah, I'll take the 06z EURO please... ticked west a tad.  Better for some of us in the region

I’d take this and run.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

A few thoughts this morning:

1. Even with some better model runs, the coastal gets marginal additional precip west of the bay. Maybe that changes but I’m skeptical. @CAPE and everyone on Delmarva are still very much in the game for that. 
 

2. For the metro corridor and NW areas, we are in the game for the Friday evening precipitation that’s aligned with some deep upper air lift and the arctic air boundary sinking south. GFS has been pushing this farther south each run but Euro and GGEM have pretty consistently put it through NoVA and MD. Should have good dendrite formation in this. Encouragingly two very well respected Mets (Pete Mullinax from WPC and HM) have both said that there’s some good upside potential with this feature. 
 

3. Then we have the ULL passage overnight into Saturday morning. The stronger and earlier the 500mb low closes off the better. It provides lift as it goes by to our south and serves to pull moisture off the ocean and wring it out over the area. Again, GFS is currently farther south with this (over central VA), euro farther north near the metro corridor and GGEM sort of in between. Again good dendrite production with this and some possible upside potential if that 500mb low can close off and make a good pass south of us. 
 

So, if one area can hit on both of those features and they both juice up a bit, I could see a somewhat coherent region of 4-8” west of the Bay and west of the consolidated coastal-driven precip swath. I think either feature alone can provide 1-3”/2-4” and hopefully nobody gets skunked. 

Very much my current thinking, so thank you for putting this up. Pete is my buddy from college, and we've chatted briefly last few days. His thinking and mine jive pretty well right now, as does yours now that it is written out. It's a setup where the boom/bust potential is high for basically everywhere, but the boom west of the Bay was likely something like the 18z NAM and 12z Euro. The phasing is too late for a coastal hugger, but a great timed phased can still put the western edge of the qpf square over our areas. Axis of deformation is still an eastern shore deal as the 7H low tracks off to the SE of the 95 corridor. I still think the end result is warnings east side of the bay and advisories to the west. I hope the 06z NAM is wrong with the 5H vort passage Friday as that would be pretty awful. That little feature is basically I'm asking for at this juncture. Nice big fatties falling to set the mood while my wife and I are on our first full day of vacay with family. Would be pretty awesome. 

[nj2va]

4 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

I’m not flying a white flag until the low is somewhere to my north and this thing is over. Play until the end of the game and sometimes you may snatch victory from the jaws of defeat.

You got like 7” on the 6z Euro.