MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Not as good as 18z but better than the GFS Roadtrip to Dogfish Head? lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'll deliver the weenie snow map then I'm out. Still hoping for a warning criteria storm here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It's still a 2-4" US15 to I-95, then 3-6" I-95 to CAPE's area, then it's easy WSW east of there. Basically all timing with the southern stream s/w. It is further west and phases/goes ape about 6 hrs too late for the fun to be further west like the 12z run. Not the end of the world, but still pretty par for the course for the expectation right now. Outside a few glory runs from guidance, this is actually pretty consistent right now. Sounds good... so we just need a slightly faster phase then. Not the end of the world as you say, and still time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: I'll deliver the weenie snow map then I'm out. Still hoping for a warning criteria storm here. You have quicker fingers than me tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: You have quicker fingers than me tonight. I'm usually in bed lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: I'm usually in bed lol. I was wondering. I have never seen you up this late. It’s starting to look like 4-8” will be our top end here. Oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I was wondering. I have never seen you up this late. It’s starting to look like 4-8” will be our top end here. Oh well. Can’t be mad about that. It’s not the jackpot we were angling towards but it’s a respectable storm that might creep into Warning criteria. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, MDsnowPRO said: Can’t be mad about that. It’s not the jackpot we were angling towards but it’s a respectable storm that might creep into Warning criteria. I would take it in a second. You just get greedy when you see some weenie runs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I was wondering. I have never seen you up this late. It’s starting to look like 4-8” will be our top end here. Oh well. You say that if it’s a bad thing! how mad can we be at 4-8” in the Baltimore area with such a setup? Sure, a good 6-12”+ MECS would be great, but I’d take 4-8” in a heartbeat if I could lock it in now. 2-4/3-6 is my expectation unless we see better runs at 12z and Beyond 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I would take it in a second. You just get greedy when you see some weenie runs. It’s so tempting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Sounds good... so we just need a slightly faster phase then. Not the end of the world as you say, and still time It's doable for sure, but expecting a MECS for our area is not what this setup is about, unless you are on the eastern shore. SECS for US15 on east is in play with higher potential the further east you go. I-95 I would say has the best chance on the other side of the bay, but around 30-40% for the time being. I see the shore being the spot for this one. I think they get pounded. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It's doable for sure, but expecting a MECS for our area is not what this setup is about, unless you are on the eastern shore. SECS for US15 on east is in play with higher potential the further east you go. I-95 I would say has the best chance on the other side of the bay, but around 30-40% for the time being. I see the shore being the spot for this one. I think they get pounded. Oh I'm not expecting a foot here... something like maybe 4 to 8 would be nice and I still think we have a chance at that. If its 2-4... so be it and that's nice as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Fell asleep, just for my body to wake me up at 3 am on the dot. Shocker. 6z nam out to 27 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: Fell asleep, just for my body to wake me up at 3 am on the dot. Shocker. 6z nam out to 27 You know you cant wait to check the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Ridge out west continues to look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So. Slow. On TT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: So. Slow. On TT https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php Out to 60 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This is going to be a pretty bad run for west of the bay unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Surface low appears further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Definitely not a great start to the 6z suite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 That run was actually how the area west of I-95 gets nothing. The vort pass was to the south and MD gets skipped over until you get east of the fall line. Eastern shore still does okay I see and the coast gets whacked. I see there's a trend who the winner in the setup will be. Coastal plain looks to get clocked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not a great sign to see the snowiest solutions (euro and nam) trend flatter as we get closer. We need them to hold suit and others to move toward them, not vice Versa. Thankfully it’s still only Wednesday. I’ll wait until 00z Thursday night before throwing in the towel for 95 & points east. Windows closing quickly for western areas without seeing meaningful changes in the upcoming runs, no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Brutal....everytime we need a good trend or a holdEverytime Never fails 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 why i dont get excited any more about storms 4 5 6 days out. the models never ever hold any more. wouldnt be surprised if this goes off the south east coast. if it does stay near the coast it wont have the strength or precip. I wish every would get the best out of this storm but as normal it feels it isnt our storm or at least the big one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 LWX AFD from this morning .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Uncertainty remains in the track of the coastal low pressure system poised to move north Friday and into this weekend. Confidence is increasing in a potential impactful event for the majority of the Mid-Atlantic coast and further across New England. A deep, digging trough will move eastward Friday into Saturday. This, coupled with the surface low will bring the threat for impactful snow to most of the area. To start with, by late Thursday night a period of upslope snow showers should begin for the Allegheny Front as the upper trough begins to move further east. At this point, it is increasingly likely that the Allegheny Front will see a prolonged snowfall through late Friday given the upper level low and however the surface low influences that portion of the area. The snow will continue to track further east throughout the day Friday and totals will be greatly impacted by the position and timing of the coastal low and the upper level low. There continues to be discontinuity in the exact position of a coastal low set to form near the Carolinas. Latest ensemble means for the position of the low remain in disagreement in terms of timing and intensity. Snowfall totals for the 00z EPS show a more bullish approach with a closer low track vs the 00z GEFS (3-5" difference across portions of southern MD). Deterministic guidance continues to show most of the higher totals across the Delmarva Peninsula and further north-east. Should the track move further west, then areas like southern MD and the I-95 corridor may see significant changes in potential impacts and snowfall totals. Guidance will continue to zero in on a potential track over the next few days. To summarize, confidence is high on an accumulating snowfall across most of the area but remains low with regards to totals, especially the I-95 corridor and southern MD. Another important component of this system will be the gusty winds with a tightening gradient ahead of the system falling into place. The increased winds and falling temperatures will most likely warrant Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories Saturday into Sunday. Temperatures will most likely fail to reach 30F during this time period with wind chills in the negatives (-15 to -20 across portions of the Allegheny Front) during the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Trough didn’t go negative in time - 6z Gfs There is certainly time / room for improvements — however, the windows closing on us fast. We need to see better hits by 00z tonight or we’re in trouble. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No one but cape cod and extreme SE NE really gets in on the very heavy stuff. Gets going too late. Hopefully it’s a progressive bias, but without blocking, we cannot rule this likelihood out. We need an earlier phase and the trough to go negative earlier. If this continues, 00z tonight is when I likely throw up the white flag for the metro corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6z Nam/Gfs 00z euro and 3z SREF already pretty damn similar with low position — all too Far East. SNE gets the brunt. Even NYC is too far west for the goodies. Not a good start to the day. Suspect the ICON, 6z euro and the rest will follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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