CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Remember the 12z and especially 18z GEFS signaling the better snows in the MA region would be down in E VA/NE NC? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: What do you think? 00z Euro steps back toward the GFS? Or moves toward the NAM? Assume the 1-3/2-4 solutions will be reality. Easier to keep the expectations in check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman98 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: I meant ugly, my bad. I did not have fat shaming a model on todays bingo board. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Snowman98 said: I did not have fat shaming a model on todays bingo board. Get a new board. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Assume the 1-3/2-4 solutions will be reality. Easier to keep the expectations in check. Yeah at least that'll get some closer to (or above for DC) climo...not a terrible consolation prize I suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I don’t know, it’s like a cage match. Perhaps the truth lies in the middle. Thinking the same. A high end advisory to low end warning snowfall areawide would be a win. We truly need things to go just right to score big in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, jayyy said: What do you think? 00z Euro steps back toward the GFS? Or moves toward the NAM? The NAM. Like I said earlier, hoping the GFS stays true to form for this season and shifts the storm to the west over the next couple of days. Maybe we don't get the 30" snow, but at least a nice 6-8" for most of us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The Washington basketball team blew a 35 point 2nd half lead tonight 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Ji said: The Washington basketball team blew a 35 point 2nd half lead tonight I almost broke my TV. They are pitiful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowman98 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, ravensrule said: I almost broke my TV. They are pitiful. fouling on a three at the end there brings me back to my middle school basketball days, that's basically what they looked like in the second half. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: The Washington basketball team blew a 35 point 2nd half lead tonight Beal got caught with his hand in the cookie jar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 17 minutes ago, nj2va said: Assume the 1-3/2-4 solutions will be reality. Easier to keep the expectations in check. Yep. I lived just outside of NYC for 26 years growing up. Seen this type of setup enough times to know that E NJ NYC / LI into coastal New England are almost guaranteed to get hit hard by this. My parents house in the lower Hudson valley about 30 miles NNW of nyc is a bit more hit or miss in these setups. Evolutions like the 00z NAM would absolutely crush them with 12-18” under intense CCB bands streaming off the Atlantic. More easterly tracking storms would fringe their area with 2-4” while LI to cape cod saw 12-24”. There was a winter in the early 2000s where we saw numerous east tracking Miller B storms and LI saw 50+“ for the winter while we only saw 20” or so. It was rough. My hope for down here is a solid advisory level event (3-5”) combining the initial NS snow and a brush from the coastal with a potential low end warning boom (6-8) for 95 on east if the stars align. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: The NAM. Like I said earlier, hoping the GFS stays true to form for this season and shifts the storm to the west over the next couple of days. Maybe we don't get the 30" snow, but at least a nice 6-8" for most of us. Can’t argue with the fact that the Gfs tends to be a bit too flat / progressive outside of 72 hours and that it typically trends west as we approach game time. Man…. what id do to have ANY semblance of blocking to the NE heading into this storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 hour ago, LP08 said: TPV over eastern Canada was further south and west and was tilting the trof more positively. That allows the southern vort to stretch. That interaction was there and has gotten incrementally "worse" the past couple runs. I noted the oddness on the 18z GEFS with the lack of snowfall in our area but higher totals in SE VA. Clearly a large contingent of the members were seeing this and/or something else. I guess we were all so focused on the SW energy we didn't pay much attention to what was going on up north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Is randy doing euro pbp?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 ok, here we go..then im out for the night 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 No meaningful changes through 27 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: No meaningful changes through 27 That's good so far... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nothing remarkable at 33 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Looks like tail/western vort is a hair west of where it was at 18z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 So far , pretty similar except for slightly lower heights in front, but again...not fatal 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 TPV (or whatever the big gyre thing is over NE Canada) kinda pressing a bit more, lowering heights from 18z from the northern vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It’s definitely better than the Goofus so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Flatter in front at 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Eastern side of the trof when it gets closer to us is flatter...not as sharp as 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's a broader trof and thus sfc is easter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Go to bed. Not the run we were looking for vs 18z. But not a disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Not as good as 18z but better than the GFS 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's still a 2-4" US15 to I-95, then 3-6" I-95 to CAPE's area, then it's easy WSW east of there. Basically all timing with the southern stream s/w. It is further west and phases/goes ape about 6 hrs too late for the fun to be further west like the 12z run. Not the end of the world, but still pretty par for the course for the expectation right now. Outside a few glory runs from guidance, this is actually pretty consistent right now. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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