87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, MDsnowPRO said: add this one to your list Noted, thx! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Not great. Would do anything for the 970 just southeast of OC. That's perfect. It’s fine. It’s not great if you want a MECS or HECS to occur, yes, but a track offshore with proper phasing and a mature moisture field can still lay down 3-6” in your area - even with the low not tucked. Of course, the OCMD tuck is the perfect scenario, but it’s unlikely to happen given the setup. If people have reasonable expectations for a complex Miller B in a niña, we’ll likely end up doing just fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: This isn't true. You can't perceive shifts as trends in the sense you're trying to. It's not like a sporting team trending in the right direction with some wins, making progress on making the playoffs. The models can and probably will come out at 0z taking away the 1-2' totals because again, trends don't actually excited in weather models - just the perception of trends. My two cents ty for listening Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend. How’s Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend. How’s Philly Lol I'm kinda cracking myself up. Like you sit here and go 5 MILE SHIFT WEST and keep saying that each run til we run out of time? Lol are we supposed to pretend it's like a football game that ran outta time? Oh darn if we just had some more time those models would of shifted west two more times??? Hahaha it's a funny thought you gotta admit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terrapinwx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 EURO has been remarkably consistent in the low pressure placement over the past 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Great. If you’re looking at it from the perspective of things slowly shifting in a direction over a period of time, it’s a trend. How’s Philly I get what both of you are saying. But I think what he's saying is that the models don't "remember" what they predicted X number of cycles ago. They take in the data ingested for the latest cycle and run math calculations to spit out what it thinks the atmosphere will do. The perception of "trends" is there - but it's in the initialization of the models and our analysis of it... So yes - initilization over several cycles could analyze that a piece of energy is stronger each time. But that's not the model trending in that sense - it's the starting data adjusting in real time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Twilly05 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: How about Ctl-Alt-Del? I mean CntlTim? Vice regent in the running? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 25 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: I get what both of you are saying. But I think what he's saying is that the models don't "remember" what they predicted X number of cycles ago. They take in the data ingested for the latest cycle and run math calculations to spit out what it thinks the atmosphere will do. The perception of "trends" just there - but it's in the initialization of the models and our analysis of it... That's what I'm saying ty for helping. It's just something I battle with myself. Like yes there's a trend we observe but I don't find it actually means anything. I mean we do this every winter we all know the deal lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 42 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend Put your head back on 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Great thing about models tonight… you’re gonna know by 48-60 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Nam with changes already thru 9 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: I get what both of you are saying. But I think what he's saying is that the models don't "remember" what they predicted X number of cycles ago. They take in the data ingested for the latest cycle and run math calculations to spit out what it thinks the atmosphere will do. The perception of "trends" is there - but it's in the initialization of the models and our analysis of it... So yes - initilization over several cycles could analyze that a piece of energy is stronger each time. But that's not the model trending in that sense - it's the starting data adjusting in real time. True. Models don't "remember" and perhaps the idea of trending a certain way is more attributing a human characteristic onto them. But it does serve a purpose to look at d(model)/dt. Personally I think Rockem Sockem comes off a bit too dismissive and arrogant on the subject when there is no need to do so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Sorry I'm not popular around here I'll go back to my hole. Good luck to tonight's observers. Many fine drinks in here, cheers. it's not goodbye just a see you later 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Nam with changes already thru 9 lol Good? Bad? My God man. Tell us. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 14 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Lol I'm kinda cracking myself up. Like you sit here and go 5 MILE SHIFT WEST and keep saying that each run til we run out of time? Lol are we supposed to pretend it's like a football game that ran outta time? Oh darn if we just had some more time those models would of shifted west two more times??? Hahaha it's a funny thought you gotta admit. I haven’t said a word since I made one comment about hoping for an average of a 25 mile shift west with each run. Which, is completely plausible. Coming from someone who uttered the words “the storm being further west won’t help us”, you should probably get off your high horse on this one. No one cares about your definition of the word trend. Carry on. By the way - it’s called the rock and sock connection. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Sorry I'm not popular around here I'll go back to my hole. Good luck to tonight's observers. Many fine drinks in here, cheers. it's not goodbye just a see you later It's not a matter of popularity. You bring up some good points but can come off as a bit superior and dismissive of others' comments. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I'm just sitting here watching the world go by.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, wxdude64 said: I'm just sitting here watching the world go by.... #relatable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Sorry I'm not popular around here I'll go back to my hole. Good luck to tonight's observers. Many fine drinks in here, cheers. it's not goodbye just a see you later https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/9969845e-6da1-4870-8f1c-49d74dae8f0b Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Through 27 on the NAM. NS Sw maybe a hair east of 18z. No real changes elsewhere. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thanks for the update. For more uplifting news, I’m scheduled for a rectal tomorrow morning. How much for Philly? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 34 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! I hate this booze. Ask @stormtrackerwhy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 20 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: Lol I'm kinda cracking myself up. Like you sit here and go 5 MILE SHIFT WEST and keep saying that each run til we run out of time? Lol are we supposed to pretend it's like a football game that ran outta time? Oh darn if we just had some more time those models would of shifted west two more times??? Hahaha it's a funny thought you gotta admit. Hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 19 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: True. Models don't "remember" and perhaps the idea of trending a certain way is more attributing a human characteristic onto them. But it does serve a purpose to look at d(model)/dt. Personally I think Rockem Sockem comes off a bit too dismissive and arrogant on the subject when there is no need to do so. Correct. It’s fine to have differing opinions on things - no need to be condescending in the process. I get that a given model isn’t necessarily “trending”, but when models are collecting more recent data, and that data results in a systematic shift in a particular direction 2 days in a row, one could consider that an overall trend. If all models are moving west, to say we are seeing a west trend with the outcome is a reasonable thing to say. At least in my eyes. We’re parsing words here honestly. Pretty stupid argument lol. What else would you call it? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 NAM pretty similar to 18z thru 33 which is good considering where 18z was at the end of its run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 13 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: That's what I'm saying ty for helping. It's just something I battle with myself. Like yes there's a trend we observe but I don't find it actually means anything. I mean we do this every winter we all know the deal lol There’s still a trend, but more so in regards to initialization of one run (actual) compared to where the previous run expected those initialized data points to be. It’s a matter of semantics, but I’m not sure what other word you can use other than trend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Present 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, H2O said: I hate this booze. Ask @stormtrackerwhy You still owe him a bottle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: Present welcome good sir, just in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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