LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 12 minutes ago, BigCountry said: 1) Storm has not started yet... 2) Check with CWG directly... Missing the parody, are we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Anything interesting on other 18z runs tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: EPS has a bit more tilt like the op did at 18z, but h5 does close off at h90 over ROA. That has to be good. Closed over ROA. That should be a dream scenario for this area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z is where is real change happens. It takes one bad trend to undo 10 "better" trends Thanks for the update. For more uplifting news, I’m scheduled for a rectal tomorrow morning. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, BristowWx said: That has to be good. Closed over ROA. That should be a dream scenario for this area. It would if we werent pos tilted. Still overall better than the GFS just not 12z euro levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Ji said: 00z is where is real change happens. It takes one bad trend to undo 10 "better" trends We already had the series of wildly fluctuating outcomes. Now we are in the slow steadily improving runs. 3 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigCountry Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Missing the parody, are we? Haha, guess I did. No worries. Just waiting on the next run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Will we get 18z low positions? Early low positions Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Are those lows near the Bahamas part of the ensembles for this storm? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 00z is where is real change happens. It takes one bad trend to undo 10 "better" trends That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 DT is secsy 2 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It’s a tie at the end of the 3rd quarter and a win gets us into the playoffs. Each run for the next day is 3 mins each. The game plan is to win at least 3 of those, or we go home. Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Yea! That’s Tom Delonge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Not great. Would do anything for the 970 just southeast of OC. That's perfect. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: I like the nice west cluster on the HH Eps But except for the 970 outlier, those are still too far east. It's better for sure, but we need it tucked more than that. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: But except for the 970 outlier, those are still too far east. It's better for sure, but we need it tucked more than that. We'd like it more west, but give me those lows there with an h5 closing off over Asheville/Greensboro and I'm taking my chances for a decent event in a lot of spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Thanks but I would like to see them early, before they reach our lat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Anybody have the EURO Ens snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'm not even going to try to fake it, I'm legit looking forward to the NAM. Yes, I said what I said. Who are you?? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! That's what I'm talking bout 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! I approve of that shot glass. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! I still can’t get past the peat/smoke in scotch, but it is smooth. I may have to go on an eagle rare search soon, though. That was recommended to me here and still in my rotation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 16 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big! Oh yeah. Thats good stuff right there friend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDsnowPRO Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, 87storms said: I still can’t get past the peat/smoke in scotch, but it is smooth. I may have to go on an eagle rare search soon, though. That was recommended to me here and still in my rotation. add this one to your list 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Pretty interesting that all of the models have the front end precip over the Winchester area at about the same timeframe. Event he NavGem has it. Just a weird observation. Nothing more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models This isn't true. You can't perceive shifts as trends in the sense you're trying to. It's not like a sporting team trending in the right direction with some wins, making progress on making the playoffs. The models can and probably will come out at 0z taking away the 1-2' totals because again, trends don't actually excited in weather models - just the perception of trends. My two cents ty for listening 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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