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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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7 minutes ago, Ji said:

00z is where is real change happens. It takes one bad trend to undo 10 "better" trends

That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend 

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4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I am thinking of breaking out the mini JW blue label for the 00z suite, mostly the NAM. Gotta go big!

5BB8FB21-B082-423B-9969-AD4F967067DB.jpeg

I still can’t get past the peat/smoke in scotch, but it is smooth. I may have to go on an eagle rare search soon, though. That was recommended to me here and still in my rotation.

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16 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said:

That's because there's no such thing as a trend when it comes to model runs. We like to think there is but there's not and that's why your statement is correct. Models don't trend. There digest data and spit out results. It might look like things are trending in a direction but that's something we have artificially created ourselves. Models don't trend 

This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models  

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

This is great and all, except for the fact that there are absolutely trends on models  

This isn't true. You can't perceive shifts as trends in the sense you're trying to. It's not like a sporting team trending in the right direction with some wins, making progress on making the playoffs. The models can and probably will come out at 0z taking away the 1-2' totals because again, trends don't actually excited in weather models - just the perception of trends. My two cents ty for listening 

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