DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 The backside piece from the NW is what brought the 12z run back for us. The tail is a bit more elongated, but the whole evolution was a bit west and slightly slower. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It's basically like we won a $100 at 12z, bet it all, and won back $99.50 7 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 hr84 is more positively tilted, but its more dug in and the northern piece diving in is stronger. Not a huge difference from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 4 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Noticeably more positive at 72. But that northern piece is coming down now, so let's see what it can do. Look at this guy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: The positive tilt on some models has been an issue (why the 18z GEFS was SE), because of the lower heights out front of the system. Yeah, it has to be much sharper for us to have a shot. That's been a frustrating aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It actually makes up a nice chunk of ground on the h5 development compared to 12z by 84. Definitely a touch worse but that energy coming diving behind is doing some serious work keeping things decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: It's basically like we won a $100 at 12z, bet it all, and won back $99.50 not even baccarat can you do that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Not bad and I would take this in a heartbeat. But we all know we’re actually just waiting for 00z NAM. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 There’s way more energy rounding the base of the trough at 84 vs 90 though. And 18z closes off at 90 (like 12z did at 96). 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 It was basically a noise run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, baltosquid said: It actually makes up a nice chunk of ground on the h5 development compared to 12z by 84. Definitely a touch worse but that energy coming diving behind is doing some serious work keeping things decent. That piece is literally one of the best features we've seen. Usually those screw us, but it helps coming in on the backside to tilt this a bit and on the 18z, its more potent than last run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: not even baccarat can you do that... I'm not a gambler, so I dunno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: That piece is literally one of the best features we've seen. Usually those screw us, but it helps coming in on the backside to tilt this a bit and on the 18z, its more potent than last run. Wow a nina NS piece helping us? That would be a record, lol What happens then if that trends stronger? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 On to 0z! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said: Not bad and I would take this in a heartbeat. But we all know we’re actually just waiting for 00z NAM. It's still snowing ~Leesburg-east when that cuts off too, FWIW. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I actually thought that was a good run and I like the NS energy diving in as it was more potent. A few minor adjustments and it would have been even bigger. Considering we were starting at 0.0” and that run dropped 5” for I-95 through H90, thats a big win. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wow a nina NS piece helping us? That would be a record, lol What happens then if that trends stronger? If it comes in quicker and or more potent, thats not bad in this case. We need stuff to help pump heights out in front. If we could alleviate a lot of the "tail" like the 18z NAM did, that would be helpful too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 26, 2022 Author Share Posted January 26, 2022 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It was basically a noise run Then that’s a major victory after that 12z run. Need 11 more noise runs until it starts snowing. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 I consider it a hold from the 18z euro which is nice because it shows a 2-4" for basically everyone and is one of the furthest west with the coastal. Holds out hope we could have jaws music at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Anyone have QPF maps for 18z euro? Thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 9 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Has the low been developing so far south before today? The storm personality has changed quite a bit the last 3 days. It's still northern stream dominant but digs really deep and ignites the low pretty far south off the coast. That's new and why everyone is excited. Before it was a typical northern stream shortwave that sets things off too far north for us. Common in Nina's. This storm is on the rare side as is 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, Deer Whisperer said: Anyone have QPF maps for 18z euro? Thanks in advance A bit more falls Leesburg east after this (more as you head towards the ES) 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 This one has some looks on the recent model runs that are just a few hours sooner on timing and minor changes to bring a big event to a lot more people than current runs are showing. The ingredients and recipe to win is getting clearer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: Did your lava lamp explode across your screen? 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It was basically a noise run Just a breather until it starts trending better. Again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 26, 2022 Share Posted January 26, 2022 Gonna be hard not to drive an hour to Rehoboth at this point. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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