pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that. man that one was terrible. we were expecting 2-3ft - Central Park got about 10". Parts of Long Island got demolished. Lol I remember the news driving around parts of Manhattan for "storm" coverage with basically no snow falling. If I remember correctly that one was a BIG time Euro miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 8 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Exactly! A Miller B! <ducks> You just inspired me to make another edit. 2 official MA storm types are Miller Awesomes and Miller Bads. My work is done here 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Such a depressing day and this is our last thing we are tracking for a long time Trying too hard. Dial it back a little. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Icon is wide right but whatever, king GFS is coming up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Trying too hard. Dial it back a little. We know how this ends bro. We have been dealing with this for 22 years 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Such a depressing day and this is our last thing we are tracking for a long time get excited for some more depression. Think the action will be well north. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!) I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong. ————— Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream. Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal) Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 This thread to the GFS: 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Except for the fact both are a Miller B, good post. If December 2010 was a Miller B than we've changed the definition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The ICON was an improvement in many areas. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, The Ole Bucket said: This thread to the GFS: Also 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Trying too hard. Dial it back a little. We know how this ends bro. We have been dealing with this for 22 years Then why are you wasting time following it here? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The ICON was an improvement in many areas.There has been alot of improvement the past 2 days. None of it is giving you snow still on the maps lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong. ————— Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream. Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal) Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results. Hey I understand the HECS hunting...it has been quite a while (6 years, actually) I'd be outright lying if I said I wasn't somewhat hoping for a miracle one out of this. But also trying to live in reality, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: The ICON was an improvement in many areas. Slow and steady trend west. Exactly what we want to see at this juncture 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Trying too hard. Dial it back a little. Now that’s funny. Ji dialing it back… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hey I understand the HECS hunting...it has been quite a while (6 years, actually) I'd be outright lying if I said I wasn't somewhat hoping for a miracle one out of this. But also trying to live in reality, lol To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though. I don’t think we can say definitely anything. Hell it could become an apps runner. Probably not but with No blocking and quicker phase who knows 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said: man that one was terrible. we were expecting 2-3ft - Central Park got about 10". Parts of Long Island got demolished. Lol I remember the news driving around parts of Manhattan for "storm" coverage with basically no snow falling. If I remember correctly that one was a BIG time Euro miss. Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 GFS is King until it is dethroned. Hang on tight!!!! It is not going to snow for 4 days. Lifetime in model land… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Essentially unchanged so far on the GFS from 12z, pros and cons that about cancel each other out thus far (thru 42). N/S energy diving in quicker from what I see, S/s a bit more east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ovechkin Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I’m pessimistic about this as well, but don’t understand the crying over the Euro when at 4-5 days out all winter it had been as accurate as Chris Blewitt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule. yep that was it - lol the NYC sub was a site to behold during that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 WB 18Z ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z ICON I think the VA Beach crew hijacked the ICON 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I think some on here should consider chasing this. Perfect Friday into Saturday. Thats my plan. It really calms a lot of anxiety. A hit anywhere from DC to Boston to Vermont is perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z ICON Won’t take much to get some decent totals back west of the bay. Just a few more days of this trend and we’re in ok shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8. Yes -- I'm definitely not trying to deb on our chances..would love to see us do well on this one. The linked site had somewhat of a NC/VA focus (so I'm guessing they got nothing down there from that storm).... but it had decent graphics showing the various synoptic setups since apparently Miller is the word of the day... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The consensus forecast is the heaviest snows will be north and east of the DMV. So track with low expectations and you won’t be disappointed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Some change in the 18z GFS thru 72, energy about about 100 miles west diving in vs 12z 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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