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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that.

man that one was terrible.  we were expecting 2-3ft - Central Park got about 10".  Parts of Long Island got demolished.  Lol I remember the news driving around parts of Manhattan for "storm" coverage with basically no snow falling.

If I remember correctly that one was a BIG time Euro miss.

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49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!)

I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong.

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Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream.  Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal)

Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results. 

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3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

I think it’s more of a hybrid than a pure miller B, but I may be wrong.

—————

Models appear to not be amped enough with the ridge out west at initialization, which is no doubt helping push the storm too Far East downstream.  Still plenty of time for the W trend to continue and to see an advisory to low level warning event (of cold smoke) for I-95 and points east. (Upslope out west will provide more snow than the coastal)

Side note: The moment some folks stop obsessing over our area needing to jackpot or outsnow the PHL - NYC - BOS corridor, the sooner they’ll come to peace with what we do end up getting. Get this insane notion out of your heads that we will outsnow NYC / LI to Boston with a hybrid Miller b setup. It ain’t happening. Also, not every snowfall needs to be a MECS/HECS. Folks are living in the wrong area if they expect those type of results. 

Hey I understand the HECS hunting...it has been quite a while (6 years, actually) I'd be outright lying if I said I wasn't somewhat hoping for a miracle one out of this. But also trying to live in reality, lol

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hey I understand the HECS hunting...it has been quite a while (6 years, actually) I'd be outright lying if I said I wasn't somewhat hoping for a miracle one out of this. But also trying to live in reality, lol

To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though. 

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

To me, a 6+ Snowfall hasn’t been ruled out for the Baltimore metro - moreso than DC being that it’s further NE and better positioned in this setup. 12+ definitely ain’t happening though. 

I don’t think we can say definitely anything.  Hell it could become an apps runner.  Probably not but with No blocking and quicker phase who knows 

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13 minutes ago, pazzo83 said:

man that one was terrible.  we were expecting 2-3ft - Central Park got about 10".  Parts of Long Island got demolished.  Lol I remember the news driving around parts of Manhattan for "storm" coverage with basically no snow falling.

If I remember correctly that one was a BIG time Euro miss.

Euro and NAM were both way too far west. Everyone jumped on them. EE rule. 

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40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8. 

Yes -- I'm definitely not trying to deb on our chances..would love to see us do well on this one. The linked site had somewhat of a NC/VA focus (so I'm guessing they got nothing down there from that storm).... but it had decent graphics showing the various synoptic setups since apparently Miller is the word of the day...

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