Quasievil Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's what I'm saying. People wonder why my reaction was kind muted...because it's the NAM. If it had been the GFS, I'd be posting nukes To be fair, the GFS has been waffling as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Ji said: not to sound like the weenie of the year which i won back in 2007--but NAM seems to sniff out stuff on storms that are Hecs sized more than your normal storm? when it has the right synoptic idea the NAM can get details right the globals miss. But the problem is its hard to know when its got the more general synoptic setup right. And at this range its really prone to wild swings. But very early on which is in its range, improvements happened each of the last 3 runs. I think the idea of it leaving less behind is a good real trend. The stuff at the end...eh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Also not named Busch, may need to run to the store quickly to pick up a good IPA for the GFS (expecting it to disappoint since its the new dr.no, but just in case ) If you lived close, I have about 12 cases or random every kind of beer here. Always happy to share! If this storm actually comes to fruition, obligatory beer fridge pics will be forthcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Scraff said: If you lived close, I have about 12 cases or random every kind of beer here. Always happy to share! If this storm actually comes to fruition, obligatory beer fridge pics will be forthcoming. I'm actually coming down that way towards Hanover this week to meet a partner for work... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the GFS plasters us with 30" this place is going to go berserk. Not that I wouldn't be happy, but I would be afraid of it moving even further N/W in the coming few days. Meaning that some or all of us end up raining. Let's see that slow transition to victory. Let's not get crazy here. The GFS isn't going to smoke us, and I don't think it's wise to even consider the possibility that any model run will do so. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I'm actually coming down that way towards Hanover this week to meet a partner for work... Seriously—DM me. I’ll be around most of the week. I can hook you up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Geesh, just saw the NAM (lol). That ridge placement out west is basically perfect through Idaho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Ol' trusty ICON says yeah that's gonna be a no from me dawg 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 ICON sucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Geesh, just saw the NAM (lol). That ridge placement out west is basically perfect through Idaho. Everything about to go boom at 84….gosh please let the nam be right. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: BC Brewery...Unless @mappy objects Never! That sour ale I had was good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Paleocene said: Ol' trusty ICON says yeah that's gonna be a no from me dawg The ICON is only a good model in very specific situations, specifically when it somehow finds a way to inexplicably predict that a coastal snow hurricane will ride the coast in the medium range. Otherwise it’s trash 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, mappy said: Never! That sour ale I had was good Now we just need the ICON to not be even close to the outcome for this to happen haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just copy and paste this every time the ICON comes out or just refer to this post: THE ICON SUCKS. 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: ICON sucks It sucks for all too. No forum divider lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Now we just need the ICON to not be even close to the outcome for this to happen haha its the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 icon will just not play ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Just copy and paste this every time the ICON comes out or just refer to this post: THE ICON SUCKS. It was ICONIC like one time a few winters ago when it nailed the DC centric snow area with the second disturbance in a 1-2 punch deal. I remember that because all the other guidance had that snow more east/NE, and it busted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 IconICK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 You would think with all those submarines the Germans would know about the warm water off the coast? This is why I think the storm will ride as far west as possible, the thermocline. I must hide now. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 RGEM is not quite as good as the NAM but pretty much the same as 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We need to see some of the non euro/NAM guidance trend this way. But this is why the NAM would work v what the global's have been showing. I placed the NAM SLP position onto the GFS plot from the same time. You can see where the NAM has the low its not crazy to get it into our preferred track. From where the GFS is...forget it. Even with the same trajectory from there its not going to be close. We absolutely need the secondary to develop southwest of the OBX not out east of it. 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I have noticed a slight difference in tone, enthusiasm, and degree of detail between the forecaster who does the morning AFD vs. the one who does the afternoon edition from Mount Holly.. Afternoon edition- Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only across the area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 hours ago, DDweatherman said: 2/2006 CRAS nailed that one storm that is not to he mentioned here. Even a blind squirrel.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Morch Madness said: RGEM is not quite as good as the NAM but pretty much the same as 12z It has the low 300 miles further northeast at the same time. Not "quite" as good? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all! 17 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all! If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It has the low 300 miles further northeast at the same time. Not "quite" as good? Trough is just so broad compared to the sharp trough on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Biggest GFS run of the season thus far beginning (if its decent, 0z will be tho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking. Funny thing is my handle was actually representative of Millersville University, and not the DE town. The irony in all this is my parents used to live in Millville, DE after I graduated school. They live in Sarasota now. I’ll be in NW MoCo for this one. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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