Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
 Share

Recommended Posts

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

not to sound like the weenie of the year which i won back in 2007--but NAM seems to sniff out stuff on storms that are Hecs sized more than your normal storm?

when it has the right synoptic idea the NAM can get details right the globals miss.  But the problem is its hard to know when its got the more general synoptic setup right.   And at this range its really prone to wild swings.  But very early on which is in its range, improvements happened each of the last 3 runs.  I think the idea of it leaving less behind is a good real trend.  The stuff at the end...eh 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Also not named Busch, may need to run to the store quickly to pick up a good IPA for the GFS (expecting it to disappoint since its the new dr.no, but just in case :P)

If you lived close, I have about 12 cases or random every kind of beer here. Always happy to share! If this storm actually comes to fruition, obligatory beer fridge pics will be forthcoming. B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said:

If the GFS plasters us with 30" this place is going to go berserk. Not that I wouldn't be happy, but I would be afraid of it moving even further N/W in the coming few days. Meaning that some or all of us end up raining. 

Let's see that slow transition to victory. 

Let's not get crazy here. The GFS isn't going to smoke us, and I don't think it's wise to even consider the possibility that any model run will do so.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Paleocene said:

Ol' trusty ICON says yeah that's gonna be a no from me dawg

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_30.png

The ICON is only a good model in very specific situations, specifically when it somehow finds a way to inexplicably predict that a coastal snow hurricane will ride the coast in the medium range.  Otherwise it’s trash 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Just copy and paste this every time the ICON comes out or just refer to this post:

THE ICON SUCKS.

It was ICONIC like one time a few winters ago when it nailed the DC centric snow area with the second disturbance in a 1-2 punch deal. I remember that because all the other guidance had that snow more east/NE, and it busted.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We need to see some of the non euro/NAM guidance trend this way.  But this is why the NAM would work v what the global's have been showing.  I placed the NAM SLP position onto the GFS plot from the same time.   You can see where the NAM has the low its not crazy to get it into our preferred track.  From where the GFS is...forget it.  Even with the same trajectory from there its not going to be close.  We absolutely need the secondary to develop southwest of the OBX not out east of it.  

GFS.thumb.png.d59b491d6513b9fef93cad2be794244c.png

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I have noticed a slight difference in tone, enthusiasm, and degree of detail between the forecaster who does the morning AFD vs. the one who does the afternoon edition from Mount Holly.. Afternoon edition-

Model guidance continues to depict the center of the low remaining off the coast and passing to the east. The ECMWF shows a trend further to the west that brings the center of the low closer to the coast. Energy from a shortwave trough arrives downstream sooner and causes the surface low to deepen sooner in the Euro relative to the GFS. If this scenario were to occur, impacts would be higher across the region. However, the operational GFS to this point has been representative of the model consensus. The surface low remains fairly far offshore and will pass relatively quickly to the north as it rapidly deepens. In either case, this event can largely be expected to be snow only across the area.

  • Haha 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. 
 

Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. 
 

GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. 
 

GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. 
 

Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! 
 

That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all! ^_^

  • Like 17
  • Thanks 12
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Popping in for my afternoon thoughts after waking up not too long ago. Looking at guidance leaves me feeling decent about my thinking on how this could go down. I-95 and east certainly have a good shot at WSW criteria stuff if the current trends hold. West of there is still very much in the game as well, but I feel a high end advisory for Rt15 to the Interstate is most likely higher end result. 
 

Two parter here with the NS vort pivoting overhead to create a nice widespread fluff for pretty much everyone in sub. Temps aloft will be plenty cold and modest ascent within the DGZ should create a nice period of dendrites for Late Friday afternoon into the evening. 
 

GFS and Euro are somewhat similar in getting more energy to phase into the disturbance, but timing of the two models is off just enough to have significant differences at our latitude. I think one thing I liked about the Euro is more NE energy diving in around hrs 72-84, creating a better phased solution that ultimately helps close off 5H and 7H to our south. @Eskimo Joe posted that tweet from my buddy at WPC talking about the 7H trends. That is a massive step in the right direction for the Megalopolis crew in here as that would create an axis of deformation on the NW flank of the the 700mb low. You’d have pretty decent banding structures over the Eastern shore if that were to occur, and snow would linger on the western flank of the QPF field as the trough pivots under us. 
 

GFS has a similar idea, but it is later and that allows the best axis of deformation to shift into coastal NJ. Storms like this can also carry some sneaky setups like Trowals, but a setup like this one would probably be more aligned for the coastal plain. 
 

Overall, I think 2-4” is very much at play right now for areas along and east of I-81 with 3-6” a solid low end for along and east of I-95 with potential for more on the eastern shore to the coast. Continue the trends and everything will get amped up further west in terms of projected snowfall. So long as we keep the nice PVA signature at Fri HH, everyone should see some snow without getting skunked. Gotta hold that little piece! 
 

That’s all from me. I will have a busy night at work due to a sneaky possible icing event here, so might not have much to say overnight, but I’m rooting hard for a nice event like everyone else since I’ll be home to enjoy it. Good luck y’all! ^_^

If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

If you are going to be in Millville you will probably be in an ideal location the way things are looking.

Funny thing is my handle was actually representative of Millersville University, and not the DE town. The irony in all this is my parents used to live in Millville, DE after I graduated school. They live in Sarasota now. I’ll be in NW MoCo for this one. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...