SoCoSailer Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, Quasievil said: I'm not disagreeing with you at all. In fact, if you study the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z NAM at 500, it's pretty close. EDIT: NAM is just held back a little bit. Maybe that's enough? Who knows. Idk to me that’s a pretty noticeable difference in the orientation of the trough. NAM digs it deeper and sharper, allowing the low to run more NNE than NE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'll take the 6" the NAM says I have OTG at 84 and call it a win. The NAM is always right right? I mean the best course of action is to just go with the NAM... someone verify this please. You must have different maps than I do lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Could be a Macallan 18 evening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: You must have different maps than I do lol. I'd at worst like to see the GFS look like the NAM with the swath of snows from the arctic front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'll take the 6" the NAM says I have OTG at 84 and call it a win. The NAM is always right right? I mean the best course of action is to just go with the NAM... someone verify this please. not to sound like the weenie of the year which i won back in 2007--but NAM seems to sniff out stuff on storms that are Hecs sized more than your normal storm? 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Its not a guess after watching the model runs come out for the last 15 years. Euro looked worse at 66, and better by 84, its that simple. I've seen WAY WAY worse model analysis these past few storms by several folks. Okie Dokie. Since you've been watching the models for so long, I expect nothing but perfection and correct assessments every single time. So far you're not doing so hot. Do better if you think you're that good. Thanks 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hear that! Love to see how it was going to end. I can imagine though. Meanwhile, this place will pop off if the GFS can jump on board. Time to pick a beer (not named Miller - lol) for that 18z… Amending my post to say maybe I'll sip mcgilicuddy's root beer on the rocks... lmao its just so good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 This is cueing us up nicely to be absolutely devastated by the 18z GFS as it goes OTS 3 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Beginning of the 4th movement of the 5th symphony? Ding Ding! Just after that transitional section where he dramatically takes us from the dark into a bright blaze of triumphant C Major glory! P.S. This is my alarm clock every morning, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Solution Man said: Could be a Macallan 18 evening If these trends continue, I’m buying some JW blue label… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, mappy said: Okie Dokie. Since you've been watching the models for so long, I expect nothing but perfection and correct assessments every single time. So far you're not doing so hot. Do better if you think you're that good. Thanks Okay mama map, stick around for 18z. I don't want to disappoint you and get put in timeout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Okay mama map, stick around for 18z. I don't want to disappoint you and get put in timeout. You're not a child are you? Otherwise, no need for a timeout. Act like a grown up, Mr. 15-Year Model Watcher 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hell yes to this post. We almost got that perfect alignment that we’ve been talking about. Thanks. I mean...it was almost from the start that the timing seemed so much better. No need to speculate on here as to what that would mean as the run was coming out, but for me that's where it all started. It was only a matter of waiting to make sure it didn't sh*t the bed, which the NAM is wont to to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup. I saw it coming at 78, but I didnt say shit because who knows...shit could have bounced off the outerbanks like a ping pong ball and im not brave enough to predict what happens after a model ends. It's just the NAM and we all know the dangers of using it at range...but like you said it does what we want. Where it's going is clear here...that low is going right through our "win box" that I outlined earlier. The key here is getting the secondary to develop down southwest of the OBX like that, which means we don't need some once in 100 years type ridiculousness to get the storm to track up just off the coast and not that 150 miles OTS nonsense that always ends in tears west of the bay. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Paleocene said: This is cueing us up nicely to be absolutely devastated by the 18z GFS as it goes OTS Ya know...this doesn't feel like a step back day for some reason. So far nothing has trended AWAY from the Euro...and instead moved towards it. But we shall see... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: If a model fits your narrative, hug it...if not...toss it. Classic Americanwx weenie's up in here That's what I'm saying. People wonder why my reaction was kind muted...because it's the NAM. If it had been the GFS, I'd be posting nukes 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, mappy said: You're not a child are you? Otherwise, no need for a timeout. Act like a grown up, Mr. 15-Year Model Watcher I'll cover the tab for you me and Bressi if this one hits us at the location of your choice as a token of my apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 On 1/24/2022 at 7:31 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: This is the key. I think it’s import to get them closer longitudinally also. I had just taken @yoda post to illustrate that west is important for both pieces, not just the southern piece. Again, just my uninformed opinion. Top is the 6z Post I made yesterday morning. Still believe it. The closer we get those lines together, the better. We get them in line? Well, then it’s Again, just my opinion. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: I'll cover the tab for you me and Bressi if this one hits us at the location of your choice as a token of my apology. Deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, jayyy said: As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west Jma and cmc are also similar to euro and nam. It’s not just euro and nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's just the NAM and we all know the dangers of using it at range...but like you said it does what we want. Where it's going is clear here...that low is going right through our "win box" that I outlined earlier. The key here is getting the secondary to develop down southwest of the OBX like that, which means we don't need some once in 100 years type ridiculousness to get the storm to track up just off the coast and not that 150 miles OTS nonsense that always ends in tears west of the bay. Agreed, I'm looking for the SLP to develop early and SW, to get it to a more mature state by our lat. Based on what we've seen, if that kind of thing happens, the trough is probably sharp and it will take a more favorable track for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's just the NAM and we all know the dangers of using it at range...but like you said it does what we want. Where it's going is clear here...that low is going right through our "win box" that I outlined earlier. The key here is getting the secondary to develop down southwest of the OBX like that, which means we don't need some once in 100 years type ridiculousness to get the storm to track up just off the coast and not that 150 miles OTS nonsense that always ends in tears west of the bay. So if nothing else the NAM gave us something to look for in other guidance...will be interesting to see if anything else trends that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Post I made yesterday morning. Still believe it. The closer we get those lines together, the better. We get them in line? Well, then it’s Again, just my opinion. Absolutely what made the euro turn around and be a pretty decent run in the later frames of 12z. Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: That's what I'm saying. People wonder why my reaction was kind muted...because it's the NAM. If it had been the GFS, I'd be posting nukes If the GFS plasters us with 30" this place is going to go berserk. Not that I wouldn't be happy, but I would be afraid of it moving even further N/W in the coming few days. Meaning that some or all of us end up raining. Let's see that slow transition to victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, IUsedToHateCold said: If the GFS plasters us with 30" this place is going to go berserk. Not that I wouldn't be happy, but I would be afraid of it moving even further N/W in the coming few days. Meaning that some or all of us end up raining. Let's see that slow transition to victory. I’d be happy with low end warning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, MD Snow said: Jma and cmc are also similar to euro and nam. It’s not just euro and nam. Yeah and even the gfs, not nearly as good earlier, I thought trended closer to the others and certainly didn't go the opposite way (pending 18z of course, lol). Doesn't feel like a step back day...but we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I'll cover the tab for you me and Bressi if this one hits us at the location of your choice as a token of my apology. BC Brewery...Unless @mappy objects Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, IUsedToHateCold said: If the GFS plasters us with 30" this place is going to go berserk. Not that I wouldn't be happy, but I would be afraid of it moving even further N/W in the coming few days. Meaning that some or all of us end up raining. Let's see that slow transition to victory. While that can be a risk, I can't see us coming from too far east to TOO far west, lol That would be weird to see that kind of jump, imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: That's what I'm saying. People wonder why my reaction was kind muted...because it's the NAM. If it had been the GFS, I'd be posting nukes That is in one hour... or maybe white flags Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Baltimorewx said: BC Brewery...Unless @mappy objects I like it, beer came into the discussion and you were immediately at our beck and call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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