DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, mappy said: Really wish you would just wait and let models run instead of guessing. Sure, you were right about the NAM, but you were annoying during both the GFS and Euro runs. Seriously. Take the advice Randy keeps giving you. WAIT. Its not a guess after watching the model runs come out for the last 15 years. Euro looked worse at 66, and better by 84, its that simple. I've seen WAY WAY worse model analysis these past few storms by several folks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Correct, if the NAM went out to 96, we would have had Jaws music Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Paleocene said: NAM FTW Fixed 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: lol NAM its very very likely just the NAM doing NAM things...but if...by some miracle, we were to reel this in, getting the secondary to develop down southwest of OBX is what we need. That changes the equation for us quite a bit. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: NAM is a varsity model, right? not when it shows what we want 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Amped said: NAM finally gets the 1018mb contour closed over the southern apps when the coastal is already down to 1013mb. Guess that makes it a Miller E XXL or something. Imagine this thing trends into a storm that has the primary steal the show and rob the coastal. I’d quit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, jayyy said: We know. But the evolution through 48-72 hours is very much within its range, and there were drastic differences at h5 that led to the amped up solution that unfolded at 84. It cant just be tossed, especially with the ECMWF CMC RGEM and Gfs all trending west I'm not disagreeing with you at all. In fact, if you study the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z NAM at 500, it's pretty close. EDIT: NAM is just held back a little bit. Maybe that's enough? Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: WTF just happened? We got nammed. Let's hope one of the varsity models show the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yup. I saw it coming at 78, but I didnt say shit because who knows...shit could have bounced off the outerbanks like a ping pong ball and im not brave enough to predict what happens after a model ends. If you look at 54 you can plainly see it. The sw in Arizona is much further west and the ns is almost vertical. Much closer together and very close to a full phase. Im gonna dream for a few minutes and envision a full phase perfectly synced and where that would place this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 To clarify...from where the NAM ends we still need a clean phase and capture but we dont need some crazy ridiculous tuck where the low has to track NW. A simple NNE movement of the low from there would take the track through "the box" I highlighted earlier with past storms that worked for us. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Icon appears to be coming along better as well not that it matters but I'll take a good iconing too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattie g said: Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows? Hell yes to this post. We almost got that perfect alignment that we’ve been talking about. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Perhaps, if this works out for us somehow, instead of Jaws music we should have this instead: Nah only play that movement if it doesn't work out. If it DOES work out...play this! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 To be fair I think it was PSU who warned that the Euro and Nam tend to be way too amped in these scenarios so if they come in with the best results to go easy with reactions. Not discrediting anything anyone is saying but just trying to keep in mind some words from the wise. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, psuhoffman said: To clarify...from where the NAM ends we still need a clean phase and capture but we dont need some crazy ridiculous tuck where the low has to track NW. A simple NNE movement of the low from there would take the track through "the box" I highlighted earlier with past storms that worked for us. My weenie thoughts exactly. This solution avoid the perfect phase for this latitude which as you said earlier, with Miller B's has a low probability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows? The reality is just because a run doesn't do exactly what it should (these are computer simulations), doesn't mean one way or another its always going to be better/worse. The Euro just happened to make a turnaround later in its run because for the first time it brought our northern piece of energy on the backside more vertically oriented north to south. This made for a cleaner phase and tilted the axis of our trough more favorably. There was no question around h66-72 it was broader. NAM on the other hand, like you said looked favorable early on and the evolution was traditional for what you'd expect with a clean phase and a sharp trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west In the NAM's case that looked like a better track period...like by the last panel the low wasn't even at our latitude, was it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I'll take the 6" the NAM says I have OTG at 84 and call it a win. The NAM is always right right? I mean the best course of action is to just go with the NAM... someone verify this please. 7 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Hell yes to this post. We almost got that perfect alignment that we’ve been talking about. And the good part about that is the NAM is "closer" to its useful range when were analyzing frames 48-54 hours out vs 84. Of course its just the NAM and we'll give it the weight it deserves, but you like seeing what we saw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Ravens94 said: Icon appears to be coming along better as well not that it matters but I'll take a good iconing too It matters when we’re talking about trends. JMA euro and NAM on their own island is an issue. However, having the ICON CMC RGEM and GFS also see a nice west trend, it brings legitimacy to the possibility. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Nah only play that movement if it doesn't work out. If it DOES work out...play this: Beginning of the 4th movement of the 5th symphony? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: I hope we have an opportunity to see an h5 progression like that when the NAM can run its whole run, because if we do, it would be a crusher Hear that! Love to see how it was going to end. I can imagine though. Meanwhile, this place will pop off if the GFS can jump on board. Time to pick a beer (not named Miller - lol) for that 18z… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I’m on lunch at work. Time for some happy hour drinks to bring in the good juju 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Honestly I'd be happy if the GFS just puts it a smidge west of 12z - it has continually trended N/W in the few days leading up to the storm with just about every other storm this year. Ideally, at go-time the 30" blob is over most of us. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Scraff said: Hear that! Love to see how it was going to end. I can imagine though. Meanwhile, this place will pop off if the GFS can jump on board. Time to pick a beer (not named Miller - lol) for that 18z… Also not named Busch, may need to run to the store quickly to pick up a good IPA for the GFS (expecting it to disappoint since its the new dr.no, but just in case ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 If a model fits your narrative, hug it...if not...toss it. Classic Americanwx weenie's up in here 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Current collective status 2 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I'll take the 6" the NAM says I have OTG at 84 and call it a win. The NAM is always right right? I mean the best course of action is to just go with the NAM... someone verify this please. I'll gladly have what that NAM is having!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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