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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Really wish you would just wait and let models run instead of guessing. Sure, you were right about the NAM, but you were annoying during both the GFS and Euro runs. 

Seriously. Take the advice Randy keeps giving you. WAIT. 

Its not a guess after watching the model runs come out for the last 15 years. Euro looked worse at 66, and better by 84, its that simple. I've seen WAY WAY worse model analysis these past few storms by several folks.

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Correct, if the NAM went out to 96, we would have had Jaws music

Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows?

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Just now, Amped said:

NAM finally gets the 1018mb contour closed over the southern apps when the coastal is already down to 1013mb.   Guess that makes it a Miller E XXL or something.

Imagine this thing trends into a storm that has the primary steal the show and rob the coastal. I’d quit :lol:

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4 minutes ago, jayyy said:

We know. But the evolution through 48-72 hours is very much within its range, and there were drastic differences at h5 that led to the amped up solution that unfolded at 84. It cant just be tossed, especially with the ECMWF CMC RGEM and Gfs all trending west 

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. In fact, if you study the 12Z GFS vs the 18Z NAM at 500, it's pretty close. EDIT: NAM is just held back a little bit. Maybe that's enough? Who knows.

gfs_z500_vort_us_16.png

namconus_z500_vort_us_53.png

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3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  I saw it coming at 78, but I didnt say shit because who knows...shit could have bounced off the outerbanks like a ping pong ball and im not brave enough to predict what happens after a model ends.

If you look at 54 you can plainly see it. The sw in Arizona is much further west and the ns is almost vertical. Much closer together and very close to a full phase.

Im gonna dream for a few minutes and envision a full phase perfectly synced and where that would place this low.

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2 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows?

Hell yes to this post. We almost got that perfect alignment that we’ve been talking about.

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To be fair I think it was PSU who warned that the Euro and Nam tend to be way too amped in these scenarios so if they come in with the best results to go easy with reactions. Not discrediting anything anyone is saying but just trying to keep in mind some words from the wise. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

To clarify...from where the NAM ends we still need a clean phase and capture but we dont need some crazy ridiculous tuck where the low has to track NW.  A simple NNE movement of the low from there would take the track through "the box" I highlighted earlier with past storms that worked for us. 

My weenie thoughts exactly. This solution avoid the perfect phase for this latitude which as you said earlier, with Miller B's has a low probability.

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1 minute ago, mattie g said:

Have to agree with this. I was following on Pivotal, which came out pretty quickly, and I was a *little* surprised by the reactions. To me, the northern and southern energy were much better timed from the start, and everything fell into place from there. If that's right, then it makes sense that we were heading for a nice look at 84. if not, then who the hell knows?

The reality is just because a run doesn't do exactly what it should (these are computer simulations), doesn't mean one way or another its always going to be better/worse. The Euro just happened to make a turnaround later in its run because for the first time it brought our northern piece of energy on the backside more vertically oriented north to south. This made for a cleaner phase and tilted the axis of our trough more favorably. There was no question around h66-72 it was broader. 

NAM on the other hand, like you said looked favorable early on and the evolution was traditional for what you'd expect with a clean phase and a sharp trough. 

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2 minutes ago, jayyy said:

As @psuhoffman has said a few times, we need to be cautious here. Only having the NAM / Euro showing such a west solution is a bit of a warning sign given their know biases to overdo the western flank of storms. We need to see other models continue the trend west 

In the NAM's case that looked like a better track period...like by the last panel the low wasn't even at our latitude, was it?

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Hell yes to this post. We almost got that perfect alignment that we’ve been talking about.

And the good part about that is the NAM is "closer" to its useful range when were analyzing frames 48-54 hours out vs 84. Of course its just the NAM and we'll give it the weight it deserves, but you like seeing what we saw.

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1 minute ago, Ravens94 said:

Icon appears to be coming along better as well not that it matters but I'll take a good iconing too

It matters when we’re talking about trends. JMA euro and NAM on their own island is an issue. However, having the ICON CMC RGEM and GFS also see a nice west trend, it brings legitimacy to the possibility. 

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6 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I hope we have an opportunity to see an h5 progression like that when the NAM can run its whole run, because if we do, it would be a crusher

Hear that! Love to see how it was going to end. I can imagine though. Meanwhile, this place will pop off if the GFS can jump on board. Time to pick a beer (not named Miller - lol) for that 18z…

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1 minute ago, Scraff said:

Hear that! Love to see how it was going to end. I can imagine though. Meanwhile, this place will pop off if the GFS can jump on board. Time to pick a beer (not named Miller - lol) for that 18z…

Also not named Busch, may need to run to the store quickly to pick up a good IPA for the GFS (expecting it to disappoint since its the new dr.no, but just in case :P)

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