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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Damn, I’m tired. But I’ve almost got it onshore. Exhausting willing this thing in like that.

I’d honestly be happy with a 3-6” type event for our general area (far NW). I’m likely either going to my brother’s for this one closer to 95 or to see my folks up in New York. Haven’t decided. If trends continue, Baltimore could very well score big here

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Just now, Quasievil said:

Always a key rule to NEVER analyze or hype the NAM 84 panel but, that looks like it's going to go bananas.

Yup.  I saw it coming at 78, but I didnt say shit because who knows...shit could have bounced off the outerbanks like a ping pong ball and im not brave enough to predict what happens after a model ends.

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4 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Okay, well now that you've seen the whole run, was I right? :) 

Really wish you would just wait and let models run instead of guessing. Sure, you were right about the NAM, but you were annoying during both the GFS and Euro runs. 

Seriously. Take the advice Randy keeps giving you. WAIT. 

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2 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

Always a key rule to NEVER analyze or hype the NAM 84 panel but, that looks like it's going to go bananas.

We know. But the evolution through 48-72 hours is very much within its range, and there were drastic differences at h5 that led to the amped up solution that unfolded at 84. It cant just be tossed, especially with the ECMWF CMC RGEM and Gfs all trending west 

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1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yup.  I saw it coming at 78, but I didnt say shit because who knows...shit could have bounced off the outerbanks like a ping pong ball and im not brave enough to predict what happens after a model ends.

Easy.  H5 closes off, tucks off the delmarva.  We all win.

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Just now, mappy said:

Really wish you would just wait and let models run instead of guessing. Sure, you were right about the NAM, but you were annoying during both the GFS and Euro runs. 

Seriously. Take the advice Randy keeps giving you. WAIT. 

I kind of like the dynamic. I’ll be up for @yoda pbp at 1am 

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