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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads.

I'm sure the GFS solution is ultimately closest to the correct one. I've been shouting about teleconnections for days with this. But I'm rooting for the Euro closing off sooner scenario and bombing us and hoping for a historical, unprecedented event here.

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Just now, CAPE said:

Well....

If the GFS moves that way, then maybe I will buy the bigger storm option. A faster moving, later developing(deepening) surface low just fits the pattern better imo.

Definitely agree thats more likely than a closed of h5, possibly vertically stacked low that slows to almost a halt in this pattern. But, the Euro needs to show its old colors and be right once right? Good time for it to lead the way in a big outcome :P 

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7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina.

There is a slight hint of a western extension of the MSLP, kind of a duel low structure, in response to the upper level energy.  

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9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

22 years ago today was the surprise snowstorm for DC. Also known as the Carolina Crusher. The storm was supposed to miss SE and ended up being a great storm for just about everyone. By the way. Can someonw recommend a site for historical upper air maps other than this one: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/2000/01/reanal_2000012500.gif

NWS Raleigh and NC State MEAS have done a good job with the catalogue of events affecting NC. Might find more there? Here is the link to the storm you referenced:

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/20000125/

Full site: https://www.weather.gov/rah/events

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

Do you have money on this or something? :hurrbear:

I mean, you all know I'm as much of a snow weenie as anyone on here.  But from the get go, outside of a couple runs last week where it looked like maybe a true Gulf low coming north, this has just huge flashing BUST written all over it.  I think there's a good chance we get SOME snow Friday evening.  Eastern Shore and Delaware folks have a good shot at a warning level event.  But those of us west of the Bay?  Or in NoVA and the mountains?  Pssshhhh...good luck.  Hope I'm wrong but I'm not counting on it until Sunday morning.

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22 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

22 years ago today was the surprise snowstorm for DC. Also known as the Carolina Crusher. The storm was supposed to miss SE and ended up being a great storm for just about everyone. By the way. Can someonw recommend a site for historical upper air maps other than this one: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/2000/01/reanal_2000012500.gif

Sounds like there are a lot of interesting anniversaries this week.

 

a) the one you mentioned

b) the 100th anniversary of the 1922 Knickerbocker storm (January 28th-29th)

c) the 250th anniversary of the fabled Washington/Jefferson storm...(sometime between January 26th-29th, 1772)

 

Very interesting to have all that... and here we are tracking something again on the same days, lol Meaning? We shall see...

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26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina.

thanks-obvious.gif

 

 

 

:lol:

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Sounds like there are a lot of interesting anniversaries this week.

 

a) the one you mentioned

b) the 100th anniversary of the 1922 Knickerbocker storm (January 28th-29th)

c) the 250th anniversary of the fabled Washington/Jefferson storm...(sometime between January 26th-29th, 1772)

 

Very interesting to have all that... and here we are tracking something again on the same days, lol Meaning? We shall see...

I think it might just be that we're entering prime climo for our snowstorms. I think you could go any week between now and President's Day and find a few good storms to throw in there. 1/25 was the super bowl storm in 87, 1/26 is Commutageddon, 2/6 is Snowmageddon, 2/9 is the second blizzard, 2/12 is the Feb 06 snowstorm, 2/13 is the big storm of 2014, and then there's PD I and II of course. Basically--if you want a big'un, now is the time for it.

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37 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

22 years ago today was the surprise snowstorm for DC. Also known as the Carolina Crusher. The storm was supposed to miss SE and ended up being a great storm for just about everyone. By the way. Can someonw recommend a site for historical upper air maps other than this one: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/2000/01/reanal_2000012500.gif

I went to an event the night before. On the way there I heard on WTOP that we would have flurries the next day. When I left the event a couple of hours later, I heard on WTOP that there were blizzard warnings going up. I'll never forget that.

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