DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: The ARPEGE looks good too, if we are running out weenie models. Cmon France 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Fozz said: December 2010 January 2018 ^^^That’s 2 in just the last 12 years. Woulda been a more accurate statement if he said 24+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Fozz said: December 2010 January 2018 ^^^That’s 2 in just the last 12 years. What you are saying I don’t think matches the parameters I described. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Cmon France The French never fold am i rite!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WHo has Ensembles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that. It doesn’t. There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3. we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples. February 5-7, 1978. 2 inches in DC, 15 in Wilmington, DE. 27 in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Cmon France Oui oui bonjour and all that jazz. Show me the niege France! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can someone trick the government into making a -NAO over the Atlantic by Friday. Open to ideas on how to I cannot believe I paid money to see this movie. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12z 06z 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z 06z I would be happy with 6 inches... That would top my entire year so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EPS is a nice improvement, bet there are some huge hits to come on the individuals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: 12z 06z We are getting there. Need a couple more ticks and I think we all can be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toolsheds Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 19 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Can someone trick the government into making a -NAO over the Atlantic by Friday. Open to ideas on how to will a nuke cause the blocking like it might stop the hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: The ARPEGE looks good too, if we are running out weenie models. That's an "OLD MODEL" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Eps looks solid with the low tracks, some improvement vs 6z in my opinion 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 23 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yo, in all seriousness, this model has barely wavered since Saturday....fwiw which probably ain't much I can remember once, several years ago, when it did the same thing and lead the way the entire time.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: I can remember once, several years ago, when it did the same thing and lead the way the entire time.... 2/2006 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: 2/2006 I have to google that one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Eps looks solid with the low tracks, some improvement vs 6z in my opinion Is there enough time left to make a difference up our way? I'm hoping the upper level stuff is juiced up enough to get a decent 2 to 4" event Friday evening without relying on the coastal this far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 9 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: EPS is a nice improvement, bet there are some huge hits to come on the individuals Yea, 12z EPS is about 30 miles west and much better for all 3 terminals. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Eps looks solid with the low tracks, some improvement vs 6z in my opinion The ensemble map definitely is a tad better. Going to start needing some bigger leaps here in the next 48 hours, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 22 years ago today was the surprise snowstorm for DC. Also known as the Carolina Crusher. The storm was supposed to miss SE and ended up being a great storm for just about everyone. By the way. Can someonw recommend a site for historical upper air maps other than this one: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/ http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/2000/01/reanal_2000012500.gif 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, osfan24 said: The ensemble map definitely is a tad better. Going to start needing some bigger leaps here in the next 48 hours, however. We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads. 4 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yea, 12z EPS is about 30 miles west and much better for all 3 terminals. 30-50 with that QPF field, certainly avoided the 2 steps back thing… now can we avoid that on the GFS unlike yesterdays 18z unmitigated disaster 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels. And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression. If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina. You’d expect if it was going to vertically stack and close off, the low would be closer to the coast than the sfc reflections on the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads. The GFS evolution makes more sense given the setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I went from 1.6 at 00 to 2.3 at 12z ECM. Mostly vortex instability possibly drawing a little off coastal qp and frontal precip. for western folks imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: The GFS evolution makes more sense given the setup. Until happy hour gives you 20” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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