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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that.  It doesn’t.

There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3.

we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour  cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday  something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples. 

February 5-7, 1978. 2 inches in DC, 15 in Wilmington, DE. 27 in Boston.

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

Eps looks solid with the low tracks, some improvement vs 6z in my opinion 

Is there enough time left to make a difference up our way? 

I'm hoping  the upper level stuff is juiced up enough to get a decent 2 to 4" event Friday evening  without relying on the coastal this far west.

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22 years ago today was the surprise snowstorm for DC. Also known as the Carolina Crusher. The storm was supposed to miss SE and ended up being a great storm for just about everyone. By the way. Can someonw recommend a site for historical upper air maps other than this one: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/

http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/ncepreanal/data/2000/01/reanal_2000012500.gif

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Just now, osfan24 said:

The ensemble map definitely is a tad better. Going to start needing some bigger leaps here in the next 48 hours, however.

We will be PHENOMENALLY lucky to get 6”+ from this IMO. No way in hell we’re getting some 24”+ deform band nonsense. Congrats Chowdaheads.

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32 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels.  And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression.  If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. 

The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina.

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1 minute ago, CAPE said:

The depiction on the Euro has an interesting evolution, and a bit unusual to have the 700/850 low so far removed from the surface low. See if that idea holds as we get closer. Still a ways to go, but I always feel like the bust potential in general is higher for this region with a NS dominant system and an unblocked coastal in a Nina.

You’d expect if it was going to vertically stack and close off, the low would be closer to the coast than the sfc reflections on the euro

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