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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Enjoy this run (if you are in the northeast half of the sub) but be careful... the euro has a bias to be over amplified and too generous on the western extent of these miller b storms.  My words will have absolutely no bearing on the outcome and you are all totally welcome to ignore me or tell me to shut up...but for me...seeing the euro as the furthest west solution at this point is not shocking...and not very comforting either.  If we see other guidance converge in this direction then I would start to build some confidence for a better outcome.  

Your words make sense. If I recall correctly dec 2010 and dec 2000 had models spitting out good precip well into Dc. But then the low forms and the truth becomes that the precip just never pushes that far west. Hits a wall around the dmb. 
 

I’m sure this storm is different from them and I think we get something from the northern feature but I’m totally not sold on the euro idea or even the gfs at all. Even up here in Nw Delaware 

 

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1 minute ago, lpaschall said:

My concern is if I go to my place in OC then who is going to shovel the snow in Westminster...But 30 inches!

Yeah. Being further east than me you have a better chance to get some of the coastal in Westminster. If I go to my place in OC and they get 30 I know I am not leaving there for at least a week. I was there for an 18 incher and it was a S show for 4 days. I really wish we could get double digits for everyone in the subforum. 

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14 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. 

I’m with you. We have a place in Rehoboth but I can’t be there for a week!!! I guess will be living through boardwalk cams!!!

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30 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Look at this, best we've seen yet. Great aligning after h72 with the N & S pieces helped tilt the axis. H5 closing off over NC certainly helped too. 

trend-ecmwf_full-2022012512-f090.500hv.c

Little deeper and a little further left and it might bring all of 95 into a memorable storm and the rest of us to plowable.

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6 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yeah. Being further east than me you have a better chance to get some of the coastal in Westminster. If I go to my place in OC and they get 30 I know I am not leaving there for at least a week. I was there for an 18 incher and it was a S show for 4 days. I really wish we could get double digits for everyone in the subforum. 

It was really that bad? I would think I could make my way out with my truck, but maybe not.

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38 minutes ago, Steve25 said:

This is absurd for Ocean City. I have to imagine if this is even close to realistic, there's going to be a lot of chasers heading down there

Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that.  It doesn’t.

There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3.

we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour  cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday  something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples. 

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1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Something like this has never happened and there is a reason for that.  It doesn’t.

There have been maybe 1 or 2 in 50 years where OC got 12+ and this area 1-3.

we’ve still got 8 more 6 hour  cycles to cover the bases and by noon Thursday  something will settle in that’s a forecast as opposed to examples. 

December 2010

January 2018

 

^^^That’s 2 in just the last 12 years.

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