Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, weathercoins said: Media hardcore hyping this one up already, especially north. That was fast Desperate to run their winter promos. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 12 minutes ago, yoda said: I want to say I like the 18z NAM h5 at 84... even though its the NAM.... at 84... yay or nay @stormtracker? I think it’s better. It’s deeper than the gfs and both parts northern and southern are farther west. Still could use better alignment and timing. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 We do so much worse with a true B than anything. Looks good to the west, forecasted to transfer to Outer banks but transfers off Rehobeth instead, Baltimore gets a little, northeast MD a little more, Wilmington to Boston get a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar of Herndon Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!) You are overthinking the Miller A and Miller B storms. No two storms are alike. Miller A storms are usually good for us, but not always. How they come together is the same in general, but deeper details always different. Miller B storms are usually not good for us as they develop to late for our latitude. Again they come together in similar ways, but details are always different and, this is critical, they only give us a few inches of snow and crush northeast or they completely miss us and crush the northeast. There are exception to both scenarios as has been pointed out by others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, weathercoins said: Media hardcore hyping this one up already, especially north. That was fast Makes sense for up north. I think its pretty clear someone up there is getting smashed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 6 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Pretty significant jump west there. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Miller time!! Ghostbusters style... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, mattie g said: Decently similar to the 12z CMC. and nothing like the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Well they finally picked up the CMC off the floor... The snow maps are slowly coming in on TT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, MountainGeek said: These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005. Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Most of the area got 3-5” from that storm…places north or east of Baltimore more like 4-8. So you're saying this could be good for a "NE MD pummelled!" post? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 We're about due for the usual progress followed by step back series, so lets hope happy hour stays true to its name. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 24 minutes ago, weathercoins said: 1. They always seem to conflate confidence with potential impact on this product (i.e. if very uncertain if a major storm will impact, always a low confidence and low potential impact) 2. Interesting to have higher confidence west #2 is probably due to the upslope threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: We're about due for the usual progress followed by step back series, so lets hope happy hour stays true to its name. @stormtracker's head just exploded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: We're about due for the usual progress followed by step back series, so lets hope happy hour stays true to its name. Usually the trend stops/reverses a bit around 48 hours from storm time. So my weenie hopes are the we have two more days to get this to the sweet spot before a partial/full rug pull. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that. I saw someone post some maps of that as well. Painful. I have to say, all misses suck and I hate them, but I hate misses to the north way less than misses to the south and east. I expect New England to get big storms, but not the south. OK - back on topic.. I am not feeling excited about Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 ICON looks a little better thru 78 @ h5, lets start with that thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said: Usually the trend stops/reverses a bit around 48 hours from storm time. So my weenie hopes are the we have two more days to get this to the sweet spot before a partial/full rug pull. “Well it didn’t get any worse” is the classic punch in the berries 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jersey Andrew Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Can a knowledgeable met talk about February 11-12, 2006? If memory serves correctly, it was considered a long shot storm at first because it only had support from JMA. Was it Miller A, B, combo, or something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Good luck for 18z GFS...heading home and will be on the raggedy ass subway where trains are coming every 35 hours. So no minor league pbp from me this time. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Ridge axis in the west keeps going further west and building more each run of the ICON...not sure surface truth will be all that much better but we'll see. Trough is a wee bit deeper in the east but seems a bit positively tilted for my liking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said: Can a knowledgeable met talk about February 11-12, 2006? If memory serves correctly, it was considered a long shot storm at first because it only had support from JMA. Was it Miller A, B, combo, or something else? Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 37 minutes ago, yoda said: I want to say I like the 18z NAM h5 at 84... even though its the NAM.... at 84... yay or nay @stormtracker? We take 39 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still don’t see it. I want to be a doctor. I want you to call me Doctor. I'm still not a doctor 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Awesome. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. Eta: think of it like this. Every time you see a coastal threat on the models, ask yourself these questions: How developed is the storm south of us on approach? Does precip blossom on top or bee line from below? If the precip is the blossom type AND the storm goes through key development phases anywhere north of OBX...you better f'n worry until the day after you're done shoveling. Maybe 2 days.... Eta #2: don't even think about "how much?" yet. That discussion has negative value. Nobody knows how this will break here until really close leads. Just like every other past and future storm like it. All I can think about is whether or not my yard accidentally gets in the way of something that is really F'n good at avoiding it. When I read people discussing amounts it makes me wonder how long they've lived here lol 16 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Good. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. Exactly! A Miller B! <ducks> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Exactly! A Miller B! <ducks> It was a softball! I'll go look in the parking lot for it. Brb 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not. Incredible level of rapid intensification off the coast for that one. Seems like it did it at exactly the right time so it “threaded the needle” in terms of giving the I95 corridor stupid amounts of snow though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Such a depressing day and this is our last thing we are tracking for a long time 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Good luck for 18z GFS...heading home and will be on the raggedy ass subway where trains are coming every 35 hours. So no minor league pbp from me this time. Don't worry! Yoda is here! *ducks* 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Good. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. This…all that really matters is where the storm develops in relation to us. All the other crap is irrelevant. We can do well in a miller b the rare times the NS digs enough to initiate a healthy storm to our SW. PD79 for example. But we tend to call those hybrids simply because in doing so they often tap the gulf and so have stj interaction. Whatever. If the storm develops south and west of our lat:long we do good. If we’re relying on a perfect capture tuck to wrap a deform back into us from the east…99% of the time that’s a fail. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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