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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!)

You are overthinking the Miller A and Miller B storms. No two storms are alike. Miller A storms are usually good for us, but not always. How they come together is the same in general, but deeper details always different. Miller B storms are usually not good for us as they develop to late for our latitude. Again they come together in similar ways, but details are always different and, this is critical, they only give us a few inches of snow and crush northeast or they completely miss us and crush the northeast. There are exception to both scenarios as has been pointed out by others. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

We're about due for the usual progress followed by step back series, so lets hope happy hour stays true to its name. 

Usually the trend stops/reverses a bit around 48 hours from storm time. So my weenie hopes are the we have two more days to get this to the sweet spot before a partial/full rug pull.

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15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that.

I saw someone post some maps of that as well. Painful. I have to say, all misses suck and I hate them, but I hate misses to the north way less than misses to the south and east. I expect New England to get big storms, but not the south. OK - back on topic.. I am not feeling excited about Friday. 

 

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1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

Usually the trend stops/reverses a bit around 48 hours from storm time. So my weenie hopes are the we have two more days to get this to the sweet spot before a partial/full rug pull.

“Well it didn’t get any worse” is the classic punch in the berries

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4 minutes ago, Jersey Andrew said:

Can a knowledgeable met talk about February 11-12, 2006? If memory serves correctly, it was considered a long shot storm at first because it only had support from JMA. Was it Miller A, B, combo, or something else?

Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not. 
ABD08C92-E6DC-4A3B-99AB-961D2D3305FC.gif.772212defa5831fd73f9e0a15ec6dcd2.gif

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The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Awesome. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. 

Eta: think of it like this. Every time you see a coastal threat on the models, ask yourself these questions: How developed is the storm south of us on approach? Does precip blossom on top or bee line from below? If the precip is the blossom type AND the storm goes through key development phases anywhere north of OBX...you better f'n worry until the day after you're done shoveling. Maybe 2 days....

 

Eta #2: don't even think about "how much?" yet. That discussion has negative value. Nobody knows how this will break here until really close leads. Just like every other past and future storm like it. All I can think about is whether or not my yard accidentally gets in the way of something that is really F'n good at avoiding it. When I read people discussing amounts it makes me wonder how long they've lived here lol

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Good. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. 

Exactly!  A Miller B!

 

<ducks>

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not very similar. Miller A in a classic pattern with a -NAO with departing 50/50. Some called it a “thread the needle” at the time simply because we were in a Nina but I always thought it was a pretty classic big storm setup Nina or not. 
ABD08C92-E6DC-4A3B-99AB-961D2D3305FC.gif.772212defa5831fd73f9e0a15ec6dcd2.gif

Incredible level of rapid intensification off the coast for that one. Seems like it did it at exactly the right time so it “threaded the needle” in terms of giving the I95 corridor stupid amounts of snow though?

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4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The Miller whatever letter debate is endless. There are extremely clear examples of both through history but there are many MORE examples of something in between. Bottom line, any developed storm that attacks from the south and sends a wall of waa qpf into a cold dome then everything tracks east of us is a Miller Good. Any storm that requires 2 pieces to play nice together AND/OR develop NEAR OR NORTH OF OUR LATITUDE with progressive flow is a MILLER BAD. Period. 

This…all that really matters is where the storm develops in relation to us. All the other crap is irrelevant. We can do well in a miller b the rare times the NS digs enough to initiate a healthy storm to our SW. PD79 for example. But we tend to call those hybrids simply because in doing so they often tap the gulf and so have stj interaction. Whatever. If the storm develops south and west of our lat:long we do good. If we’re relying on a perfect capture tuck to wrap a deform back into us from the east…99% of the time that’s a fail. 

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