Fozz Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, mappy said: Oof, Euro snowmap is way too overdone. Has my area getting 10+ on ~.4 qpf yeah. okay. Unless I'm reading it wrong it looks like you and I both get more like 0.7" QPF on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 15 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: bad run for NW/SW crew Its really not. That is kinda how we do these types of storms. This storm isnt tucking to coast. So we take what we can get. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Leaking Gut said: Ryan Maue ported this map, very different from Kuchera Still gives OC nearly 30 inches lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Leaking Gut said: Ryan Maue ported this map, very different from Kuchera Not too different for Ocean City! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10:1 still gives DC metro 5-6” which is nothing to scoff at. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: 10:1 still gives DC metro 5-6” which is nothing to scoff at. Apparently, people think we live on top of Mt Washington and scoff at anything less than 28". 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Closed 500mb over NC is pretty f-cking hot That's all I was focusing on. That thing closed off and neither opened nor jumped quickly to Montauk. I understand the talk of caution and all that, but if there's one thing I'm taking away from this run it's the timing of the phase and that closed low. OK...I guess that was two things, but still. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, jaydreb said: 10:1 still gives DC metro 5-6” which is nothing to scoff at. That would put DCA at 110% annual snowfall. Considering that 5 out of the past 6 winters were below average, that's great. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: That would put DCA at 110% annual snowfall. Considering that 5 out of the past 6 winters were below average, that's great. Euro caveats (and the fact that its sorta an outlier in some respects), the diving in of that N/S to align with the S/S and closing off h5 over the research triangle is usually good for us...more like Greensboro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The thing that stings here is that if we had either a -NAO or 50/50 low, this would be a Top 10 snowstorm for the subforum. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: The thing that stings here is that if we had either a -NAO or 50/50 low, this would be a Top 10 snowstorm for the subforum. Arguably could be a top snowstorm considering some of the output without either of those being still pretty crazy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Fozz said: Unless I'm reading it wrong it looks like you and I both get more like 0.7" QPF on the Euro. looks like .4-.5 for me, maybe a little more for you. Definitely not 0.7 Unless you were looking after 15z Saturday and more falls? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, DDweatherman said: Arguably could be a top snowstorm considering some of the output without either of those being still pretty crazy. Locally it would possibly dethrone 1899. The sea level pressure on the Euro looks all wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: Apparently, people think we live on top of Mt Washington and scoff at anything less than 28". True, but when a HECS appears remotely possible all bets are off. This likely won’t work but I’ll wait until 12z Thursday to throw in the tail on the HECS hunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, mappy said: looks like .4-.5 for me, maybe a little more for you. Definitely not 0.7 Unless you were looking after 15z Saturday and more falls? Looks like you missed a frame or two. Storm total QPF on the Euro for you appears to be 0.6 - 0.7. Would put you in line for a 12:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am enjoying it for the entertainment value that it is. Still hoping for a warning level snowfall, which seems realistic over here. Up here too...Now I'd be lying if if I said just missing the real deep stuff across the bay wouldn't bother me...but at least in that scenario I'd finally have a warning level snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 13 minutes ago, CAPE said: Euro snowfall looks absurd given the track of the low lol. I'll lean more towards a GFS solution for now. So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels. And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression. If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Looks like you missed a frame or two. Storm total QPF on the Euro for you appears to be 0.6 - 0.7. Would put you in line for a 12:1 ratio. i pulled it from here. i haven't actually gone to look hence my caveat of "unless there is more after 15z Saturday" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels. And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression. If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. Is that option still on the table at all? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Its really not. That is kinda how we do these types of storms. This storm isnt tucking to coast. So we take what we can get. Sorry, it’s sorta hard to convey tone over these messages lol. It’s frightening in comparison but you are totally right that expectations should be low on the western edge of the world. I’m not yet grizzled enough to be cool with OCMD getting 2’ while the mountains get 2” lol, but it obviously can and has and will happen. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. Yeah it'll be a watch the boardwalk cams for me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Euro showed ways we could win even west of the cities if the overall progression is onto something (especially at the upper levels). BUT, it's gonna need some support from the upcoming suites, first from its own EPS here shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Juno nightmares for the NYC crew Steve... lol Yea well I dunno if we blocked it out of our memory but before it was teasing NYC with 30" of snow it had a run that got like 10" of snow all the way back to me even and teased us with a significant storm...before shifting back east but still not far enough east even until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Trend has been our friend today. Let’s see it continue at 18z and beyond. Tired of this 2 steps forward, one step back nonsense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Trend has been our friend today. Let’s see it continue at 18z and beyond. Tired of this 2 steps forward, one step back nonsense. Yeah, happy hour actually giving us good reasons to drink a nice IPA instead of drowning ourselves in miller lite would be good. Edit to say busch light which is preferred in the Union Bridge area as you know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. My concern is if I go to my place in OC then who is going to shovel the snow in Westminster...But 30 inches! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Quick, somebody create blocking 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Yeah, happy hour actually giving us good reasons to drink a nice IPA instead of drowning ourselves in miller lite would be good. Edit to say busch light which is preferred in the Union Bridge area as you know. Imagine choosing to drink Busch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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