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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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18 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Closed 500mb over NC is pretty f-cking hot

That's all I was focusing on. That thing closed off and neither opened nor jumped quickly to Montauk. I understand the talk of caution and all that, but if there's one thing I'm taking away from this run it's the timing of the phase and that closed low.

OK...I guess that was two things, but still.

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1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

That would put DCA at 110% annual snowfall. Considering that 5 out of the past 6 winters were below average, that's great.

Euro caveats (and the fact that its sorta an outlier in some respects), the diving in of that N/S to align with the S/S and closing off h5 over the research triangle is usually good for us...more like Greensboro

 

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3 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Unless I'm reading it wrong it looks like you and I both get more like 0.7" QPF on the Euro.

looks like .4-.5 for me, maybe a little more for you. Definitely not 0.7

Unless you were looking after 15z Saturday and more falls? 

ecmwf-deterministic-dc-precip_48hr_inch-3468400.png

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Apparently, people think we live on top of Mt Washington and scoff at anything less than 28".

True, but when a HECS appears remotely possible all bets are off. This likely won’t work but I’ll wait until 12z Thursday to throw in the tail on the HECS hunt

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6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am enjoying it for the entertainment value that it is. Still hoping for a warning level snowfall, which seems realistic over here.

Up here too...Now I'd be lying if if I said just missing the real deep stuff across the bay wouldn't bother me...but at least in that scenario I'd finally have a warning level snow!

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Euro snowfall looks absurd given the track of the low lol. I'll lean more towards a GFS solution for now.

So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels.  And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression.  If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. 

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Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

Looks like you missed a frame or two. Storm total QPF on the Euro for you appears to be 0.6 - 0.7. Would put you in line for a 12:1 ratio.

i pulled it from here. i haven't actually gone to look

hence my caveat of "unless there is more after 15z Saturday" ;) 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

So I've been clear I am VERY skeptical of this setup just simply because of what the results of all past similar synoptic scenarios were.... but on this euro run its because of the mid and upper levels.  And the way the h5 closes off well to our SW like that might even argue the low COULD tuck in closer to the coast...but regardless it has that huge western extent due to that pretty perfect mid and upper level progression.  If this had linked up with that gulf wave and had that upper level progression we would be looking at a HECS in the cities. 

Is that option still on the table at all?

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Its really not. That is kinda how we do these types of storms. This storm isnt tucking to coast. So we take what we can get. 

Sorry, it’s sorta hard to convey tone over these messages lol. It’s frightening in comparison but you are totally right that expectations should be low on the western edge of the world. I’m not yet grizzled enough to be cool with OCMD getting 2’ while the mountains get 2” lol, but it obviously can and has and will happen.
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2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. 

Yeah it'll be a watch the boardwalk cams for me 

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16 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Juno nightmares for the NYC crew Steve... lol

Yea well I dunno if we blocked it out of our memory but before it was teasing NYC with 30" of snow it had a run that got like 10" of snow all the way back to me even and teased us with a significant storm...before shifting back east but still not far enough east even until the very end.  

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1 minute ago, jayyy said:

Trend has been our friend today. Let’s see it continue at 18z and beyond. Tired of this 2 steps forward, one step back nonsense. :D

Yeah, happy hour actually giving us good reasons to drink a nice IPA instead of drowning ourselves in miller lite would be good. Edit to say busch light which is preferred in the Union Bridge area as you know. 

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5 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

In a strange twist I dont know if I can chase this thing to OC if they are getting 30 inches. I cant get stuck there for a week. No chase due to too much snow. That is a new one. 

My concern is if I go to my place in OC then who is going to shovel the snow in Westminster...But 30 inches!

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