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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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Just now, stormtracker said:

If this happened, WinterWxLuvr would get in a bath tub and drop a toaster in it

 

It was broader/a bit west with that energy through about 72hrs, but then the northern piece drops basically due S and gets nudged in by the TPV to give us a pretty clean phase/allows the low to get going sooner. 

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51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary.  Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

I think we're thinking similarly about this.  Am I praying for some miracle capture/tuck sure...but the tracks being advertised are very very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and the January 2015 storm and several others where we tortured ourselves for a week praying for this or that to somehow change the outcome when the problem is just a fatal flaw in where the storm is staring out.  There is only so much improvement any trend in this or that variable can do for us when the storm isn't even starting to develop and mature until its already well east of our longitude.  It's already too late at that point barring some kind of miracle once in a generation type capture and tuck thing.  Some of the 12z runs (euro looks good too) kinda max our potential with the NS SW though.  That's by far our best bet here.  

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we're thinking similarly about this.  Am I praying for some miracle capture/tuck sure...but the tracks being advertised are very very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and the January 2015 storm and several others where we tortured ourselves for a week praying for this or that to somehow change the outcome when the problem is just a fatal flaw in where the storm is staring out.  There is only so much improvement any trend in this or that variable can do for us when the storm isn't even starting to develop and mature until its already well east of our longitude.  It's already too late at that point barring some kind of miracle once in a generation type capture and tuck thing.  Some of the 12z runs (euro looks good too) kinda max our potential with the NS SW though.  That's by far our best bet here.  

Call me crazy, but if the Euro would have just kept the S/S energy in the exact place as 0z/6z, with as favorable as it dove in the northern piece, we would have gotten 6"+ even back in our areas. 

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Just now, Steve25 said:

This is absurd for Ocean City. I have to imagine if this is even close to realistic, there's going to be a lot of chasers heading down there

If this is even close to realistic, the chasers should plan on staying there for a while. Can’t imagine those roads will be dug out for a bit. 

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