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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs...

The offense actually was missing more key parts for more of the season and still finished top 10. Roman gets a pass based on that I guess. As for Wink, I think it is probably more big picture and multifaceted. First off, the defense was having major issues earlier in the season when they were mostly healthy- remember the blown assignments/miscommunications leading to huge plays? Also very few takeaways. The Raven's D will have a lot of new faces next year- I would expect most of the old guys on the D-line will be gone due to retirement or no interest in bringing them back. Jimmy Smith likely is gone. They probably wanted to go a different direction philosophically, and with all the likely changes in personnel they figured it was time to start fresh with new D-coordinator. Teams are interested in Wink based on the success over the last 3 seasons so he will have no problem getting a job

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19 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

100 miles souther and wester and we are pummeled. 100 miles easter and norther and we are in big trouble. About 84 hours to go.  I’m all in for a 2-4 inch storm from the upper level pass. But Ef it, I’m hunting big game now

That’s 141.42 miles southwest :D

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29 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Completely ridiculous. I just don't understand it. I almost lost my shit Friday night. It makes ZERO sense. Roman has to go. Harbaugh has lost his mind. I'm apoplectic. 

Wink was going to get and most likely accept other opportunities within the league. But yeah, Roman has outlived his usefulness 

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14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red.  Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black.  I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want.  The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. 

Tracks.thumb.png.f82f225e7bb6013f64c0d2a28e5986ad.png

This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track.  These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast.  The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked.  

So you're saying there's a chance?

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1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary.  Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

I guess the one thing that could be helpful is the bombing of the low which a lot of those don't have as much of. 

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6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary.  Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

Yeah our best coastal storms are always lows juuuuust off OCMD, not lows out in the middle of the ocean. Hopefully, we get another few shifts west and we can get it there, but the GFS op is nowhere remotely close. Maybe the Euro can give us some false hope.

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7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman that shows our dilemma so well. Outside of a few random ensemble members, I haven't seen any models have a track on or very near OCMD like you show is probably necessary.  Maybe this one is the grand exception, but I'm not holding my breath on that.

I'm becoming focused on the escape hatch polar/ns interaction now. The big coastal can still blast us but until that's locked, escape hatch is looking pretty tasty. Cold high ratio snow followed by very strong winds. What's not to like?

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Yeah it seems like we can only get this to go so far west…. Assuming the models are doing a decent job for the moment, unless there’s a legendary tuck to get it closer to the coast briefly for a taste of the good stuff, we’re just going to have to rely on a solid prelude.

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2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

I'm almost out. SE VA to Boston blizzard. You know what storm this looks like. Unless something major happens by tonight, Leesburg on West is done. Unless we can somehow pull off 2-4 inches per the GFS verbatim.

No doubt. The CMC snowfall map is literally what every Miller B in a La Nina looks like. Boston gets dumped on, NYC can go either way and then snowfall drastically reduces the farther southwest you go. The hope is one finally breaks our way, but we all know what is 99 percent likely to happen.

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1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

I'm almost out. SE VA to Boston blizzard. You know what storm this looks like. Unless something major happens by tonight, Leesburg on West is done. Unless we can somehow pull off 2-4 inches per the GFS verbatim.

The 2-4 potential isn't really a low odds "pull off" kind of deal. The upper energy is coming no matter what. How much juice it can work with is attached to the coastal for a boom scenario but it can work with current slp track as is. 

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