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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


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I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong

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1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong

A lot of us were probably ready to move on last night, but then the 0z Euro sucked us back in for another round of this insanity.  

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Just now, ravensrule said:

Completely ridiculous. I just don't understand it. I almost lost my shit Friday night. It makes ZERO sense. Roman has to go. Harbaugh has lost his mind. I'm apoplectic. 

Mutual decision, which means they weren't going to extend him and he wanted to move on knowing that. As for Roman, I guess they are content having a good running game with HS level passing schemes.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah I was kinda yelling at my screen when I heard it...you've got to be kidding me, smh

You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs...

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3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I mean i get it all of these models are close enough that it makes sense to keep on tracking but it sure feels like the top end has shown it's hand on many of these model runs even with the shifts. Of course i am probably wrong but that coastal isn't going to hit us beyond the eastern shore. I'll keep following though but it's much easier being out my way to just let it go. Hope i'm wrong

But can ya say that for sure after what the Euro just did last night? Everything seemed frozen (pun partially intended) last night...until that run. And now this morning both GFS and CMC trend west. Not sure we are done seeing shifts...how big remains to be seen

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Just now, DDweatherman said:

You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs...

Yep--it was the offense that lost 5 of those 6 games. Only game we got completely run over was the Bengals. But Wink had those street players playing about as well as you could expect

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yep--it was the offense that lost 5 of those 6 games. Only game we got completely run over was the Bengals. But Wink had those street players playing about as well as you could expect

7th string corners against Jamar Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd aren't gonna cut it in the NFL.. not his fault.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

But can ya say that for sure after what the Euro just did last night? Everything seemed frozen (pun partially intended) last night...until that run. And now this morning both GFS and CMC trend west. Not sure we are done seeing shifts...how big remains to be seen

Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that.

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8 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

You have a completely depleted corp on D yet the healthy part of our team that was calling predictable plays. The ball was getting ran down teams throats then we couldn't finish the job in the red zone throwing on multiple downs...

I dont think any part of the Ravens team was "healthy" lol..but anyway, did I accidently stumble into the banter thread? Sheesh

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that.

I agree. If I was on the Eastern shore I'd be feeling more confident. As far west as we are I'm just hoping we can maximize the front end on Friday from the upper level energy swinging through. 

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2 hours ago, DDweatherman said:

I'm more in the Wwxluvr camp, it hasn't been that great of a winter out here to the NW... those who say we win a lot, suit yourselves but I want snow. 

I think its a bit of a myth.  We 'won' last year, but lost biggly in 2017 and 2018 to the coast.  For some reason, I cant remember what happened in 2019.   I think everyone lost in 2020.  We lose just as often as we win in the recent past.  And getting tired of being fringed on all these coastals.  I hope every low from now to the end of time runs right up the TN / OH Valley.

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7 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that.

Probably the most sensible outcome. 

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50 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Had a feeling it was still too far east and more of a coastal hit than anything. I think some on here forget how close we want a low pressure off the coast for the general metro areas to get crushed.

Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red.  Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black.  I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want.  The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. 

Tracks.thumb.png.f82f225e7bb6013f64c0d2a28e5986ad.png

This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track.  These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast.  The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked.  

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9 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

Every shift nails the same locations while the fringe areas stay relatively consistent. I'm no expert but I do have to pay attention to trends and details in my work and what I notice is despite all of the shifts and changes at any hour the end results aren't changing drastically so to me that says we probably have seen something close to the final solution save a few tweaks. Again, hope i'm wrong but if my area gets 2-4" that will cover everything and look gorgeous and I can be happy with that.

True.  GFS has “trended west” the last few runs, but it’s still way east of where it was yesterday at this time.  This was yesterday’s 12z run.   
 

image.thumb.png.194523da0243e26b30f7bf53c79e7f4a.png

 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Yea... So I went through records and plotted all the storms similar in evolution to this (miller b that initiated a secondary coastal east of our longitude off the coast) that actually managed to produce warning snowfall for most of our area (centered on DC and Baltimore) and plotted them in red.  Then I plotted the recent examples of fails in this scenario from the last 20 years in black.  I got a similar number in each sample because I went back 100 years to get the win's and only had to go back about 20 years to get the fails LOL so this isnt totally 100% scientific but it gives a good idea what we want.  The one purple was a warning event for places from Baltimore north and east but with a sharp cutoff and screwed over DC and anywhere southwest of there. 

Tracks.thumb.png.f82f225e7bb6013f64c0d2a28e5986ad.png

This gives a pretty good idea where we need the surface low to track.  These tracks 150 miles off the coast just arent going to work, if we want a significant storm to get back to most of our area we need the low to tuck in real close if no right on the coast.  The OTS track is going to end very similar to the bomb cyclone in 2018 and all the other teases we tracked.  

Has there been any model runs that have actually shown tracks similar to those in red so far? Does the overall pattern even support a track tucked that close to the coast? 

As far as what I've seen and heard over the past week or so the answers to both those questions are both a resounding no. 

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