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January 28-29, 2022 Miller abcdefu Storm Threat


WxUSAF
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31 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. 
 

Enjpy y’all :)

Welcome, just come on back to the area ASAP so you can will this bad boy in for us and you'll be able to enjoy this one. 

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2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both

I actually think that’s in the margin of the possible to have it close off earlier.     

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21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yes, the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm was perhaps about the best case scenario of a Miller B working out here.  It bombed out in just the right place (off coastal NJ, if I recall correctly?) and sat there or moved slowly.  And we had the upper low go right through us too, I think.

Recall that happened with extreme perfect blocking. Slight difference from Friday.

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37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

I'm just amazed (and happy) that we even have a shot at a few inches from this event.  And it would probably be of the cold powder variety given the temps.  Given that, who gives a s**t how much NYC or BOS get or if they get crushed, if we at least share in some decent stuff too.

How much for Philly?

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Let's get this to be red and purple by tomorrow.  It was issued prior to the 12z runs so curious if their thinking changed at all based on those.

D5_WinterThreat.png

1. They always seem to conflate confidence with potential impact on this product (i.e. if very uncertain if a major storm will impact, always a low confidence and low potential impact)
2.  Interesting to have higher confidence west

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Still don’t see it. 

I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!)

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4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

All this talk about Miller A vs B. Isn’t there also a Miller C? Perhaps this fits that classification? 

For those who want to learn more about Miller setups (and yes, there are hybrids/variants): 

https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm

Miller A type snowstorm

This type of snowstorm has a low which originates in the Gulf; it intensifies and races up the east coast. EX: Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1996. These tend to be more widespread in area BUT can be less favorable for historic snows in New England. However, they can clobber portions of the Mid-Atlantic.
 

Miller B type snowstorm

This type snowstorm has a primary low over the Appalachians while a new, secondary, and more powerful low spins up along the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of NC. It intensifies and depending on its track can clobber areas of inland or coastal New England. These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005.

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Can't we go old school and just call it a Nor'easter? For some reason I see 3 maps of Miller systems with the header "We're the Millers" and its a trainwreck

Maybe the classifications aren't as relevant the further north you go, but I do think they provide helpful information on the potential evolution of the storm at our latitude and can give us clues to things the models may be "missing" that would have impacts on our weather. I don't mind the discussion between model runs, at least...

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