DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 31 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Just wanted to pop in and say thanks for all on a fairly tame and easy read to catch up on 12z guidance. I’m basically still half asleep, but I got up briefly and couldn’t go right back for Zzzz’s, so I read the boards. I’ll post some thoughts during my night shift. Pretty excited about the trends. Hopefully keep the ball rolling through tonight. Enjpy y’all Welcome, just come on back to the area ASAP so you can will this bad boy in for us and you'll be able to enjoy this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: I for one am excited to have Ralph and others from Philly north come in our thread and tell us how great the model runs are looking If you got a problem with Ralph you got a problem with me bud. I get to bust his chops, no one else. Careful. -RSC 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 CMC closes off 6 hours sooner than the euro. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 43 minutes ago, yoda said: Regardless, the western facing slopes of the Allegheny Front could have a prolonged upslope snow event with this system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: CMC closes off 6 hours sooner than the euro. Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, DDweatherman said: Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both Hah...it was me that posted 12z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 11 minutes ago, Amped said: This is a Miller A screw job like December 2010. Except for the fact both are a Miller B, good post. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both I actually think that’s in the margin of the possible to have it close off earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 21 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Yes, the Feb. 9-10, 2010 storm was perhaps about the best case scenario of a Miller B working out here. It bombed out in just the right place (off coastal NJ, if I recall correctly?) and sat there or moved slowly. And we had the upper low go right through us too, I think. Recall that happened with extreme perfect blocking. Slight difference from Friday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: Thats exactly what I said when someone posted the Euro 12z image, all it has to do is close off 100 miles west or 6 hours earlier... CMC does both CMC still needs to be 75-100 miles farther west. Deeper too while we are at it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Let's get this to be red and purple by tomorrow. It was issued prior to the 12z runs so curious if their thinking changed at all based on those. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Except for the fact both are a Miller B, good post. Still don’t see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 37 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said: I'm just amazed (and happy) that we even have a shot at a few inches from this event. And it would probably be of the cold powder variety given the temps. Given that, who gives a s**t how much NYC or BOS get or if they get crushed, if we at least share in some decent stuff too. How much for Philly? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, hazwoper said: How much for Philly? Dude! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 I want to say I like the 18z NAM h5 at 84... even though its the NAM.... at 84... yay or nay @stormtracker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Recall that happened with extreme perfect blocking. Slight difference from Friday. Yes, very true! It was not the same kind of set up by any means. We were lucky to have everything perfectly placed for that to happen, in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Let's get this to be red and purple by tomorrow. It was issued prior to the 12z runs so curious if their thinking changed at all based on those. 1. They always seem to conflate confidence with potential impact on this product (i.e. if very uncertain if a major storm will impact, always a low confidence and low potential impact) 2. Interesting to have higher confidence west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: Let's get this to be red and purple by tomorrow. It was issued prior to the 12z runs so curious if their thinking changed at all based on those. I don't think it would have. Things have moved slightly in our favor, but I think it needs to continue to warrant an update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: it's not a toooomer....it's a ralph I accept bills as payment for model diagnostic discussions, thank you 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still don’t see it. I don't understand how you can have even a scenario like the 12z GFS where ya still have moisture from the south still be called a Miller B. I thought they were strictly northern stream teaveling west to east>>transfer at our latitude>>>bomb northeast. But here we still have a southern sw interaction...giving us more moisture than usual. Isn't that kind of a monkey wrench in things? (A good wrench, in this case!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: I want to say I like the 18z NAM h5 at 84... even though its the NAM.... at 84... yay or nay @stormtracker? Decently similar to the 12z CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I want to say I like the 18z NAM h5 at 84... even though its the NAM.... at 84... yay or nay @stormtracker? Seems to be not quite as good as the GFS at that hour, but better than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 All this talk about Miller A vs B. Isn’t there also a Miller C? Perhaps this fits that classification? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Can't we go old school and just call it a Nor'easter? For some reason I see 3 maps of Miller systems with the header "We're the Millers" and its a trainwreck 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 10 minutes ago, hazwoper said: How much for Philly? OMG. No way. This cant be real. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: All this talk about Miller A vs B. Isn’t there also a Miller C? Perhaps this fits that classification? For those who want to learn more about Miller setups (and yes, there are hybrids/variants): https://glenallenweather.com/alink/18snow/stormtypes.htm Miller A type snowstorm This type of snowstorm has a low which originates in the Gulf; it intensifies and races up the east coast. EX: Superstorm 1993, Blizzard of 1996. These tend to be more widespread in area BUT can be less favorable for historic snows in New England. However, they can clobber portions of the Mid-Atlantic. Miller B type snowstorm This type snowstorm has a primary low over the Appalachians while a new, secondary, and more powerful low spins up along the Gulf Stream waters off the coast of NC. It intensifies and depending on its track can clobber areas of inland or coastal New England. These are less widespread in terms of area and usually miss the Mid-Atlantic. EX: Blizzard of 2005. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterFire Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Can't we go old school and just call it a Nor'easter? For some reason I see 3 maps of Miller systems with the header "We're the Millers" and its a trainwreck Maybe the classifications aren't as relevant the further north you go, but I do think they provide helpful information on the potential evolution of the storm at our latitude and can give us clues to things the models may be "missing" that would have impacts on our weather. I don't mind the discussion between model runs, at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted January 24, 2022 Share Posted January 24, 2022 Media hardcore hyping this one up already, especially north. That was fast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 24, 2022 Author Share Posted January 24, 2022 NYC sub is comparing this somewhat to “Juno”, the late January 2015 Miller B that famously screwed them at the last second. I got 2.3” from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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