WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z NAM looks much different compared to 6Z. Still too far east though. Gotta get that stripe from Minn to Missouri centered over Kansas City or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 16 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: IIRC, certain lake effect setups can create squalls with rotation and "snowspouts". Need this in my yard STAT Time to restart that “destroy the Apps” project we’ve been working on? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Physicsteve Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I'm a novice at best so there's the caveat, but based on my understanding of psu's analysis last night looks like the pieces are playing together relatively nicely and piece 'A' has a North-South orientation rather than NW-SE that gfs wide-right was showing. I liked how that example still had a N-S component and wasn't all 'diagonal', which is hopefully closer to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks fine to me Improved from its previous run, gets us something at the end, but I doubt it would get us anything from the coastal....just guessing of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Some random thoughts as we prepare for todays guidance. 1) This is not necessarily pertinent to the current euro runs...(but it could be) but once we get within 48 hours beware if the euro and NAM are both west of all other guidance. Right now the NAM is at a range where its going to get major synoptic features wrong so it doesnt matter...but the final 24-48 hours both the NAM and EUro have a notorious over amplified west bias with these miller b storms. Together they are responsible for the worst busts and teases that have happened. They were the models that teased NYC with 30-40" of snow in January 2015. They were the models that teased my area and northeast MD with 6-12" in early March 2018 when we got nothing. They were the furthest west and overdone with the western fringe in the 2018 bomb cyclone and the 2017 coastal scraper and teased Baltimore for a time when the back edge ended up east of the bay. Other guidance was too far west with some of those also but only barely...they were by far the worst offenders each time. Just keep that in mind if in the final 24 hours the NAM and Euroare showing the deform crushing us but the consensus of all other guidance is just east of us. And frankly...no matter what the guidance shows I would adjust the back edge about 25-50 miles east of what it shows 24 hours out...because 90% of the time that is what happens in a miller b. 2) Our best bet to not get totally skunked is the snow associated with the NS wave like @WxUSAFhas been talking about. 3) I am praying for a miracle just like everyone else and just as excited when some run comes in that shows maybe, just maybe, this is the rare exception to the rule and we are in the game for more than just scraps. But I think everyone should simply admit the reality of how 90% of these types of storms end. We have tortured ourselves with plenty of these over my lifetime. We tracked that 2015 storm that ended up crushing eastern New England until it was obvious we were out of it inside 48 hours. We tortured ourselves trying to will that bomb cyclone and the early March 2018 storms west. I could go on and list like 10 more examples of similar setups to this but if I brought up some of those dates @stormtrackerwould have to ban me. That is not to say there is NO hope... once every LONG time a crazy anomaly can happen. March 1958 is probably the best example of a miller b that initiated a coastal storm way southeast of NC and captured and tucked it back into the mid atlantic coast and bombed us. But that had some extreme blocking and it was March with shorter wavelengths....so. The Feb 95 storm is a really close match at h5 but at the surface that had a bit more STJ interaction which is what I was hopeful for a few days ago. From range my hope was the NS would dig a bit further west and link up with the stronger STJ wave in the western gulf. It seems pretty clear that is not happening and the STJ gets left behind here and the NS goes it alone. That changes the equation if a not good way for us. The type of progression we are looking at is mostly a fail here the VAST majority of the time. SO I really think we should look at this as if we are huge underdogs and if we win great and be thankful but not get all bent out of shape if things trend towards what climo says is the 90% probability and we all should expect. Save the "why is this happening, the sky is falling" crap posts. If it goes that way its because that is normal climo for how these types of storms usually go. Its normal and should be expected not treated like the universe is so unfair. We know our climo and we all choose to live here so....suck it up. Now on to rooting for the 1 in 100 type fluke to happen here! 9 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some random thoughts as we prepare for todays guidance. 1) This is not necessarily pertinent to the current euro runs...(but it could be) but once we get within 48 hours beware if the euro and NAM are both west of all other guidance. Right now the NAM is at a range where its going to get major synoptic features wrong so it doesnt matter...but the final 24-48 hours both the NAM and EUro have a notorious over amplified west bias with these miller b storms. Together they are responsible for the worst busts and teases that have happened. They were the models that teased NYC with 30-40" of snow in January 2015. They were the models that teased my area and northeast MD with 6-12" in early March 2018 when we got nothing. They were the furthest west and overdone with the western fringe in the 2018 bomb cyclone and the 2017 coastal scraper and teased Baltimore for a time when the back edge ended up east of the bay. Other guidance was too far west with some of those also but only barely...they were by far the worst offenders each time. Just keep that in mind if in the final 24 hours the NAM and Euroare showing the deform crushing us but the consensus of all other guidance is just east of us. And frankly...no matter what the guidance shows I would adjust the back edge about 25-50 miles east of what it shows 24 hours out...because 90% of the time that is what happens in a miller b. 2) Our best bet to not get totally skunked is the snow associated with the NS wave like @WxUSAFhas been talking about. 3) I am praying for a miracle just like everyone else and just as excited when some run comes in that shows maybe, just maybe, this is the rare exception to the rule and we are in the game for more than just scraps. But I think everyone should simply admit the reality of how 90% of these types of storms end. We have tortured ourselves with plenty of these over my lifetime. We tracked that 2015 storm that ended up crushing eastern New England until it was obvious we were out of it inside 48 hours. We tortured ourselves trying to will that bomb cyclone and the early March 2018 storms west. I could go on and list like 10 more examples of similar setups to this but if I brought up some of those dates @stormtrackerwould have to ban me. That is not to say there is NO hope... once every LONG time a crazy anomaly can happen. March 1958 is probably the best example of a miller b that initiated a coastal storm way southeast of NC and captured and tucked it back into the mid atlantic coast and bombed us. But that had some extreme blocking and it was March with shorter wavelengths....so. The Feb 95 storm is a really close match at h5 but at the surface that had a bit more STJ interaction which is what I was hopeful for a few days ago. From range my hope was the NS would dig a bit further west and link up with the stronger STJ wave in the western gulf. It seems pretty clear that is not happening and the STJ gets left behind here and the NS goes it alone. That changes the equation if a not good way for us. The type of progression we are looking at is mostly a fail here the VAST majority of the time. SO I really think we should look at this as if we are huge underdogs and if we win great and be thankful but not get all bent out of shape if things trend towards what climo says is the 90% probability and we all should expect. Save the "why is this happening, the sky is falling" crap posts. If it goes that way its because that is normal climo for how these types of storms usually go. Its normal and should be expected not treated like the universe is so unfair. We know our climo and we all choose to live here so....suck it up. Now on to rooting for the 1 in 100 type fluke to happen here! 12z is it for me. I'm either tapping out or going all in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Ole Bucket Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Now on to rooting for the 1 in 100 type fluke to happen here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Amtrak wifi moving at the speed of dark. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Time to restart that “destroy the Apps” project we’ve been working on? Severely dislike this post. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 21 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said: At least it seems like even if the coastal doesnt necessarily pan out, we get some consolation with the northern Branch and maybe a 1-3/2-4 area wide. I've noticed a lot of these runs, even the ones that drop nothing on the DC/Balt metros, crush Garrett and Tucker counties. Is that wraparound as the storm moves NE? And is that typical in a Miller B scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, mattskiva said: I've noticed a lot of these runs, even the ones that drop nothing on the DC/Balt metros, crush Garrett and Tucker counties. Is that wraparound as the storm moves NE? And is that typical in a Miller B scenario? Thats the upslope firing on NW winds. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, mattskiva said: I've noticed a lot of these runs, even the ones that drop nothing on the DC/Balt metros, crush Garrett and Tucker counties. Is that wraparound as the storm moves NE? And is that typical in a Miller B scenario? It's a combo of the NS vort and then upslope. The orographic lift will squeeze every drop of moisture out of that NS vort. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 ICON is not going to go well to start 12z out 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: ICON is not going to go well to start 12z out Has the NS fluff but coastal is a tick or so east of 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattskiva Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It's a combo of the NS vort and then upslope. The orographic lift will squeeze every drop of moisture out of that NS vort. Ah got it. Makes sense. I was in Canaan in 2016 for that storm and was getting worried when there was very little snowfall initially the first day while NoVA was getting crushed, but later that night the upslope kicked in and they got 2 feet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 the more i look at this system, the more i think we (folks west of i95) want to rely on a more vigorous ns sw (the northern piece). i'm basing this on as-is...obviously, if that piece dives in further west, we're golden, but that's not the case at least on the gfs. so "as-is", i'm in agreement with what others have said that we may want to bank on that energy being legit enough to provide us with a classic "clipper-like" event for the western folks and then if the phase can occur soon enough to toss precip back against the mountains, then big bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, mattskiva said: Ah got it. Makes sense. I was in Canaan in 2016 for that storm and was getting worried when there was very little snowfall initially the first day while NoVA was getting crushed, but later that night the upslope kicked in and they got 2 feet. Those areas always seem to do well when the metros get the big ones because of the wind shift behind the deepening low bringing that upslope hard-core Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The good news is Randy will probably get good sleep tonight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 ICON at 84 shows some improvements over 6z to my untrained eye...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, ryanconway63 said: ICON at 84 shows some improvements over 6z to my untrained eye...... Looks like we get the N/S snows like the NAM is advertising, but the coastal is a step back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: ICON at 84 shows some improvements over 6z to my untrained eye...... it bombs out late, but it's workable. need a closer to the coast track, most likely. it's becoming a little clearer what's needed for this system to work out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 RGEM looks mighty close at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Icon was a marginal improvement imo. That's as much as I want to go into it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, DDweatherman said: I'm more in the Wwxluvr camp, it hasn't been that great of a winter out here to the NW... those who say we win a lot, suit yourselves but I want snow. I have had snowpack here for 20 consecutive days. So I am not going to complain. Of course I would like to freshen it up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, LP08 said: RGEM looks mighty close at 84 Now that is more like it… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, clskinsfan said: I have had snowpack here for 20 consecutive days. So I am not going to complain. Of course I would like to freshen it up though. This. I still have a nice healthy layer left, so hard to complain too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 So yall aint gonna talk about how good the RGEM looks at h5?. I think RGEM would bring it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 GFS time I would expect a rather big shift this run 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Icon was a marginal improvement imo. That's as much as I want to go into it. need that energy diving in from the dakotas to be a little further west. it's a close shave for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, stormtracker said: So yall aint gonna talk about how good the RGEM looks at h5? We just did. Was about to tilt negative early on… can’t see how that doesn’t end up real close if it’s not a hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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