WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WxUSAF said: I know you all are big game hunting, but the last 3 GFS runs looks quite fine to me for MBY. Solid 2-4” with the northern stream trough and falling during Friday HH. That said, I’d certainly say oui/ja/si to the 0z euro. I’m on this train. Either way I’ll be where it’s snowing. I’ll either be here or at the house in wv. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I’m on this train. Either way I’ll be where it’s snowing. I’ll either be here or at the house in wv. That upslope in WV is gonna be no joke locally. Snowshoe should be getting more fresh powder, which I am always a fan of seeing. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Haven't paid much attention to the Canadian because it died on WB, but the 0z GEPS snowfall mean doesn't look bad for the region through Sunday am. A general 2-4". 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 A little better than 0z. More precip further inland to our south on the mean with tighter clustering of member lows east of NC .Lol the word better. The 18z gfs took us 5 steps back so we are rebounding from that but we are still no where near the 12z yesterday. Feels Ike we are on a treadmill 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Haven't paid much attention to the Canadian because it died on WB, but the 0z GEPS snowfall mean doesn't look bad for the region through Sunday am. A general 2-4". My favorite part in all this is actually that little piece of fun prior to any coastal. It's a legit shot to get 2-4" of straight powder for much of the area with barely any effort. Dendrites for days 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I know you all are big game hunting, but the last 3 GFS runs looks quite fine to me for MBY. Solid 2-4” with the northern stream trough and falling during Friday HH. That said, I’d certainly say oui/ja/si to the 0z euro. I think based on that euro look there will be a screw zone..my area west of 95 east of 81 looks solid for that to occur. Where the NS fades and the coastal takes over. It’s ok I’m fine with it..don’t worry about me…I’m fine 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Haven't paid much attention to the Canadian because it died on WB, but the 0z GEPS snowfall mean doesn't look bad for the region through Sunday am. A general 2-4". WPC mentioned this in their disco: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd&version=0&fmt=reg In the new 00Z cycle the CMC has deviated significantly from other guidance over the eastern Pacific, leading to question marks in its forecast farther eastward--specifically a storm track a bit to the east of consensus versus multiple prior runs that were on the western side. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: More snowy ‘cabin’ photos from CAPE, I’m in. Those are kind of boring now lol. Depending on how it plays out I will either be in Rehoboth or stay home and go hiking in the snow at Tuckahoe. If it snows I'll get some photos. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Looking into the ensembles 0z to 6z there was a change in the ensemble camps. We all win with the camp 6z has for the most part. It's a touch slower and west. Very interested to see what 12z does 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: My favorite part in all this is actually that little piece of fun prior to any coastal. It's a legit shot to get 2-4" of straight powder for much of the area with barely any effort. Dendrites for days 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I think based on that euro look there will be a screw zone..my area west of 95 east of 81 looks solid for that to occur. Where the NS fades and the coastal takes over. It’s ok I’m fine with it..don’t worry about me…I’m fine It’s a good point. Lol I’m also kinda worried somehow the coastal development would screw up that upper trough snow and leave us skunked in two ways. 72hrs to go… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: It’s a good point. Lol I’m also kinda worried somehow the coastal development would screw up that upper trough snow and leave us skunked in two ways. 72hrs to go… I'll take that chance when big snows are so close by. I've seen 2-4 inches of snow 15 times in 6 years. I've seen more than that once or twice, and it was about 5-6 inches those two times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: I think based on that euro look there will be a screw zone..my area west of 95 east of 81 looks solid for that to occur. Where the NS fades and the coastal takes over. It’s ok I’m fine with it..don’t worry about me…I’m fine Time to step away brother and come back at 18z. Just peek at the number of pages in this thread at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 00z euro tonight will have heavy snow in the metro corridor. I can feel it 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The Euro hasn't let us down since last week. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 days left - let us get a measly 25 mile shift west each run and we’re golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z euro tonight will have heavy snow in the metro corridor. I can feel it 18z gfs vs euro definitely had a familiar feeling to many of the storms this month where the GFS seems to be “seeing” something 1-2 model cycles before the euro and then the euro plays catch up. But then the GFS is walking back some of those changes with 0z and 6z. Will be interesting to see how it plays out today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z euro looked better at the end of the run, but it did tick towards leaving more energy behind. It's just impossible to trust this model right now unless we see some support from other guidance. I think the wave will be on shore by 18z today. Might help guidance sampling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Looking into the ensembles 0z to 6z there was a change in the ensemble camps. We all win with the camp 6z has for the most part. It's a touch slower and west. Very interested to see what 12z does Next frame you can see it's even more obvious the group with the lowest pressures are to the SW of the mean. 12z might have a rather substantial jump back to where we want it. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 6z euro looked better at the end of the run, but it did tick towards leaving more energy behind. It's just impossible to trust this model right now unless we see some support from other guidance. I think the wave will be on shore by 18z today. Might help guidance sampling Big time. 00z tonight will be our first full data suite with the wave on land for sampling. Big runs coming up in the coming 24 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I feel like at this point with all of the model solutions we have an envelope developing...perhaps it can shift some west and east but I think we see the boundary lines. My honest opinion is that somewhere in the middle is probably correct which for the most part leaves our area out of any significant chance. Like others have said....let's get the 1-3 or 2-4" snow because it's that or 0 is my thought. Of course I sell milk for a living so take that with a grain of salt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 10 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I'll take that chance when big snows are so close by. I've seen 2-4 inches of snow 15 times in 6 years. I've seen more than that once or twice, and it was about 5-6 inches those two times. I think your backyard will do ok. You’ll benefit from the coastal to some degree. But the mentioned screw zone is real in these situations . Just the nature of these set up. It all evens out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockem_sockem_connection Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: 4 days left - let us get a measly 25 mile shift west each run and we’re golden It's not a mileage shift here that's a problem. It's not a classic Miller A tracking 25 miles east off the coast lol. Lot more complex here 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, jayyy said: Big time. 00z tonight will be our first full data suite with the wave on land for sampling. Big runs coming up in the coming 24 hours Been said time and time again - the on-land data sampling thing is mostly a thing of the past. Remote sensing has some a LONG way - the vast majority of waves/energy etc are sampled quite well by satellites. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z EPS looks pretty similar to 0z. A slight shift eastward maybe but I would call it noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Well, I'm gonna be honest. I was pretty tired and dejected last night. I was gonna quit after 6z but the f*cking Euro 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Kmlwx said: Been said time and time again - the on-land data sampling thing is mostly a thing of the past. Remote sensing has some a LONG way - the vast majority of waves/energy etc are sampled quite well by satellites. Agreed, and yet we see it mentioned often in WFO forecast discussions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Beach Snow Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, Rockem_sockem_connection said: It's not a mileage shift here that's a problem. It's not a classic Miller A tracking 25 miles east off the coast lol. Lot more complex here Complex or not, where this low forms and tracks offshore absolutely matters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Agreed, and yet we see it mentioned often in WFO forecast discussions. Was just going to say this. Why do Mets frequently mention this in forecast discussions then? Including a recent one. Unless they’re all mistaken on the models they read for a living. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Well, I'm gonna be honest. I was pretty tired and dejected last night. I was gonna quit after 6z but the f*cking Euro Boots dug in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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