dailylurker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I thought you were back in the 'swamp'. Lol everything worked out and I'm back on the ridge. Might have to move back to the swamp to see some real snow lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: A little better than 0z. More precip further inland to our south on the mean with tighter clustering of member lows east of NC . I’m surprised it’s really just a NC/VA storm on there. What does the next frame look like? OTS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I’m surprised it’s really just a NC/VA storm on there. What does the next frame look like? OTS? Yeah it starts to pivot east. Would be good for places just east and southeast of my yard. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Sterling: LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... By Friday, a deep trough will continue to move further east. Confidence has continued to increase on the negative tilt nature of this trough over the last few runs as it reaches the east coast. The 18/00z runs of the GEFS has backed off the center of low pressure being closer to the coast whereas the EPS/NBM are trending a bit more north-west. A more westward trend could bring a more widespread significant snowfall for portions of the area. For now, there still seems to be some discontinuity in the guidance as to the position of the low which will greatly impacts the snow totals that are received within the Mid-Atlantic region. This system is not a slam dunk by any means with a lack of blocking in the northern Atlantic. Nonetheless, the overall pattern for the event seems to be honing in on a snowy solution for much of the area with areas closer to the I-95 corridor having the higher totals for now, given where the best forcing/moisture availability resides. Do expect the Alleghenies to receive a fairly consistent snowfall for the event due to upsloping. Given the uncertainties with this event, have kept PoPs through Saturday evening but with a potentially fast moving track on pace, we may see conditions begin to dramatically improve during the day on Saturday. Other story will be the winds with this system with a tight gradient between the strong Arctic high pressure that will bring frigid cold temperatures Thursday and as it departs and the upper trough begins to build into the area. Coupled with these winds will be frigid cold temperatures, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Wind chill values may become more widespread in the negatives, even east of the Blue Ridge Mountains. Wind Chill Watches/Warnings/Advisories may be needed. Behind the system, high pressure will build back in and dominate for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week. A slight warming trend is possible beyond the system as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: Today is probably our last day for major changes. Time is getting thin. I’m encouraged to see the 00z Euro, even SE VA and Delmarva get slammed. We are close but realistically, how much further west could this go? Even with a full phase? Sterling 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Sterling Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6Z WB EURO at 90 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: 6z Euro holding . If anything a bit sharper looking Also looks a touch slower than 00z. Base of the trough at H90 vs H96 at 00z is slightly west and looks a touch sharper like you say. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB EURO at 90 This looks pretty good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, LeesburgWx said: This looks pretty good To my nonexpert eye a slight improvement over 0Z, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I realize no one reads anything but regional forums anymore but ECMWF just opened up a lot more data for free: posted on the main forum. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Also looks a touch slower than 00z. Base of the trough at H90 vs H96 at 00z is slightly west and looks a touch sharper like you say. That doesn’t look half bad. Still in by a thread… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, losetoa6 said: Absolutely. Base is dug further sw . Good run I’d think the Control and EPS will look improved based on that run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WB 0Z v 6z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 We just need a few things to change to be in it for the big one. Still plenty of time for this to trend better I'd take being in the bullseye 2-3 days out vs 4-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: That doesn’t look half bad. Still in by a thread… I think its all about expectations. Expecting a KU? Best to step away from the thread. Interesting in tracking a potential light to moderate event? Absolutely in the game. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowershoresadness Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 hours ago, ravensrule said: I’m definitely not greedy though. I’ll take this run in a heartbeat. More painful than NY is Salisbury getting 20”. hey now, you can have sloppy seconds 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I don’t want big changes in EURO, just another 50 miles whether that comes from a slight stronger precipitation shield from a stronger low or going negative tilt in the Miss. valley….trough is slightly sharper and looks like it it trying to go negative at 90. (Again no expert). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6 minutes ago, nj2va said: I think its all about expectations. Expecting a KU? Best to step away from the thread. Interesting in tracking a potential light to moderate event? Absolutely in the game. I’m expecting an FU so if that can be avoided it’s a win 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Nice move on the euro. 75 miles sw and we are in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going. 9 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, MillvilleWx said: 06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going. That would be a second time this winter for us easterners. I had 10.25" with the Jan 3rd system here in Crofton. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Where 6z ended…. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, WxMan1 said: That would be a second time this winter for us easterners. I had 10.25" with the Jan 3rd system here in Crofton. It's nice to see you south and east folks get a bit of a heater every once in a while. Doesn't happen often, but y'all can cash when things are right. I'm hoping we all are dancing with a couple inches of snow at least. Anymore to me is gravy. I'll be with my family and watching snow fall. Not much to hate there. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 4 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: 06z Euro would have been a nice spot for the sub-forum. Solid snow probably I-95 on east with Advisory level stuff to the west, easy. @CAPE @Lowershoresadness @frd and anyone on the coast would have a great time if that run kept going. More snowy ‘cabin’ photos from CAPE, I’m in. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: I had a heck of a time getting the cities to match up with the graphic. Thankfully the shift before last night got the key messages started. Notice how the probs went up, especially in New England. We also now see the storm in the day 4 WSO! Let's hope the probs keep going up for us!! 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, snowfan said: Where 6z ended…. Comparison? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, nj2va said: More snowy ‘cabin’ photos from CAPE, I’m in. @CAPE has some of the best shots in the sub when his house gets caked in snow. Legit dreams right there. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 25, 2022 Author Share Posted January 25, 2022 I know you all are big game hunting, but the last 3 GFS runs looks quite fine to me for MBY. Solid 2-4” with the northern stream trough and falling during Friday HH. That said, I’d certainly say oui/ja/si to the 0z euro. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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