jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Yeah this forecaster is good. Brought that up in the morning AFD yesterday. You are still very much in the game for sure. Id say anyone from 95 east still is, but especially areas east of the bay. I’d like to see models further west right now of course, but we’ve certainly been in worse positions at D4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro super amped....gfs prog...who we going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, Ji said: Gfs continues its awful runs. Nothing like overamped euro Just now, CAPE said: 6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region. Lol... I'll go with @CAPE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 6z GFS isn't bad. Still leaving some energy behind, but the NS digs enough to produce a more widespread area of moderate snow. Lets hope that idea sticks if the coastal is going to be too late to organize for our region.That would be a big no for me boss. Tired of 1-3 nickle and dime 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, yoda said: Lol... I'll go with @CAPE 2-4" is fine with me over zero. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, CAPE said: 2-4" is fine with me over zero. Yup all day every day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Euro super amped....gfs prog...who we going with? Historically, the Gfs does tend to be too progressive / flat and underestimate ridging, resulting in a SE bias, but that may no longer be the case since it was upgraded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 I know 00z was a step back after we trended in the right direction most of the day yesterday, but overall, the trend is still our friend and it’s becoming clear this thing will likely trend west, not east, as we get closer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 12 minutes ago, jayyy said: Continues the 18z/0z trend of leaving SW energy behind. We should have much better sampling of the energy dropping out of western Canada by 00z tonight and should begin to see models converge. Until then, models are guessing how far west it will be and whether or not it phases or gets left behind. To a lesser degree though. More of that energy is getting ejected than previous runs. 6z 18z yesterday Still work to do, and still time. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: 2-4" is fine with me over zero. 100%. The need for some to see a SECS MECS or HECS in the MA region every storm is frustrating to say the least. 2-4” out of a storm that was tracking to Bermuda a few days back is a win in my book. If we can get more, even better, but I’d be happy with a solid advisory event. IF current trends continue over the next few days, I could see a 2-4” in the metros with 3-6” out your way type deal unfolding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 In the byline to this thread's topic, someone stated, 'probably not'. I say, It probably WILL! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: To a lesser degree though. More of that energy is getting ejected than previous runs. 6z 18z yesterday Definitely see what you’re talking about. Subtle, but noticeable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Get those shovels ready! Stock up on ice melter, food and beers! Get ready for some rousing jebwalks! You all are about to be absolutely blinded by huge, huge three inch aggregates blasting on a northeasterly gale right past the streetlights! NEVER GIVE UP ON SNOW! You are gonna get it! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 1 minute ago, jayyy said: Definitely see what you’re talking about. Subtle, but noticeable. Might just be noise and the GFS could locked in to not getting that energy involved. Time will tell. Maybe the Euro is ready to take back the throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 3 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96 24 hour precip is a huge jump west also at 102. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 The 0z euro came closer than I originally thought. The storm absolutely blows up on its journey from the Carolina’s to east of Long Island. 1008 to 968 in 12 hours. A bit too east and late, but it was close. More than enough time left to see the changes necessary to bring us some appreciable snow out of this. 00z tonight is when I really want to see models begin to hone in on what’s going on out west. By that time, the energy diving south from Western Canada should have far better sampling for models. So long as we are trending better in that regard, our hopes remain alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 8 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GEFS at 90 h5 looks much better on TT IMO compared to 00z at 96 Trending the right way, no doubt. Let’s keep it going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Today is probably our last day for major changes. Time is getting thin. I’m encouraged to see the 00z Euro, even SE VA and Delmarva get slammed. We are close but realistically, how much further west could this go? Even with a full phase? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Not bad, but not as good as the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 That euro was a pretty boss Chesapeake run. If today were Wednesday I'd be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Well I have been missed to the south and to the west this year with big storms. It is only fitting that I will he missed to the east with this one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Euro totals. CAPE gets a foot. 8” line back to Baltimore. NYC to Boston get slammed. 28” jack in east NJ I’m off all weekend — debating going to visit my parents just outside NYC if models converge on this solution. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 EURO run was almost there at H5. Definitely an improvement from yesterday. One more tick west may improve the look of things at the western ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 WB 6Z GEFS….few amped solutions but a large number of misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 A little better than 0z. More precip further inland to our south on the mean with tighter clustering of member lows east of NC . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS….few amped solutions but a large number of misses. I don't see any hits for NW of the cities. It's obvious this isn't our winter up this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 Just now, dailylurker said: I don't see any hits for NW of the cities. It's obvious this isn't our winter up this way. I thought you were back in the 'swamp'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 25, 2022 Share Posted January 25, 2022 NWS has upped precipitation possibilities to 50% for this storm from 30%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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